AFL finals week two: Teams, tips, and Mick McGuane’s ultimate preview
Aaron Naughton will be significant in the Bulldogs’ cutthroat final. But an area of his game let him down the last time he faced the Lions. Full analysis.
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Have the Western Bulldogs found their form at the perfect time?
If the Lions produce another effort like they did last weekend, it’s going to be a long summer.
Footy analyst Mick McGuane breaks down each of this week’s semi finals.
SCROLL DOWN FOR FULL TEAMS AND TIPS
Brisbane Lions
How they play
The Lions play with a surge mentality that pride themselves on being a strong contested possession and pressure team in order to gain territory. They simplify their style by having the highest kick-to-handball radio in the competition. Over the course of the year they’ve generally used the corridor coming out of defensive-50 to attack the game and give their forwards great opportunities. However, there has been a subtle shift over the past month to use the boundary line more often. This helps protect turnovers but also if the ball goes out of bounds they can reset and revert to their strengths around stoppages.
The key
Get the balance between offence and defence right post-clearance. No more bees to a honey pot. In the first 30 seconds against Melbourne last week, Lachie Neale scrapped a kick forward for the first clearance of the game. Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage all ran forward despite knowing they would not be able to impact the next play. Demon Christian Petracca maintained his position in the centre circle and was wide open to be used in a chain forward which ended in a goal to Ben Brown after Jake Lever intercepted the Neale kick. The layers of defence from the Brisbane midfield must improve dramatically when the ball leaves their area.
The challenge
Win the territory battle. Ruckman Oscar McInerney will have a huge say in this given he has an opportunity to be assertive against an inexperienced Lewis Young. McInerney needs to give his midfielders first use so they can get their surge game going and supply the forwards with ample opportunities. Across the year, Brisbane has a time in forward have differential of +1min 30sec, while the Bulldogs are +8min 9sec.
The Lions will need to ensure there is not a big discrepancy in that statistic this week, but also need to make sure they are efficient going inside-50 rather than just blazing away.
The theme
Take the game on and trust those in front of the ball. The Lions have some injury concerns with no Eric Hipwood or Dan McStay, meaning Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Lincoln McCarthy will need to step up and compete strongly. It doesn’t need to be a perfect play, but they need to be given opportunities. The Lions were slow with their ball movement last week, which was a key reason why they only had 45 inside-50s against Melbourne. Bring back the fast break, surge football and give your forwards some one-on-one chances.
X-factor
Dayne Zorko. The Lions’ skipper was poor last week for an experienced player and looked overawed by the occasion. Everything he did was manic and at times he kick-chased. However, he is capable of playing a significant role in this game centre-forward. If match ups go his way and he spends more time in attack, he could have five or six shots on goal and be the match winner.
If I was Brisbane
I’d send Harris Andrews to Tim English and Marcus Adams to Aaron Naughton. Given the key defenders were poor last week, the Lions might be better served with a hybrid defender. So I’d bring in Ryan Lester to replace Darcy Gardiner, who looks banged-up. Bring back Deven Robertson as a big-bodied midfielder and send him to Tom Liberatore to stop his inside influence. In attack I’d look to separate and isolate Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron as much as possible, because their speed will trouble the Bulldogs defenders.
Brisbane injury list
Callum Ah Chee (groin) test
Grant Birchall (knee) test
Darcy Gardiner (knee) test
Ryan Lester (hamstring) test
Dan McStay (concussion) 1 week
Noah Answerth (groin) season
Eric Hipwood (knee) season
Harry Sharp (ankle) season
Cam Rayner (knee) season
WESTERN BULLDOGS
How they play
The Bulldogs are a high volume team who play the game with what’s in front of them. A lot of people think they’re a handball team but they play what the opposition give them. Contested ball-winning ability is the signature element of their brand, albeit they’re been slightly off in that area recently. At their best, they bring a high-octane brand where they take the game on with great dare and high risk. Exiting defensive-50, they head towards the boundary more than any other team in a bid to protect their backline.
The key
Suffocate Brisbane’s ball movement. The Bulldogs have proven they can do it before, keeping the Lions to their lowest score of the year in Round 4 of 8.6 (54). The template of how to set up the ground defensively was also there to see for the Bulldogs last week as Melbourne kept Brisbane to their second-lowest score of the season with 9.6 (60). The Doggies need to bring great defensive intent on the Lions ball carrier and also set up the ground defensively to cover all exits so the Lions are forced into slow play situations.
The challenge
Replicate last week’s outstanding forward-half game. The Dogs were precise and methodical. Against Essendon, that was the difference. The conditions might have helped stifle the Bombers ability to exit D50, but the Bulldogs are at their menacing best when they get control of the footy centre-forward. They scored a ridiculous 72 points from forward-half chains last week. Incredible stuff. If they return this type of efficiency again, the Lions finals campaign will be over.
The theme
Win the territory battle. The Bulldogs did that against the Lions back in Round 4, dominating the inside-50 count 61-44. Both teams will look to assert their game styles and take territory, but trying to have the ball live in the Bulldogs’ forward half will be a directive of coach Luke Beveridge. From there, they will be able to get the game on their terms and allow their high defenders in Caleb Daniel, Easton Wood and Bailey Dale to come in behind their attack and aggressively set up the ground to cover exits. In turn, that will force Daniel Rich, Harris Andrews and Grant Birchall to kick long down the line to aerial contests, which suits the Bulldogs.
X-factor
Aaron Naughton. The big key forward has an insatiable appetite for assaulting the footy in the air with enormous courage and conviction. We witnessed his marking talent in wet conditions last week. In a drier game this week, he’s got enormous capabilities to hit the scoreboard against a struggling Lions’ defence. He just needs to kick straight, after managing only 2.5 against Brisbane last time.
If I was Western Bulldogs
Alex Keath goes to Joe Daniher. He must restrict his influence, because he can be a barometer. I’d bring in Zaine Cordy to replace Ryan Gardiner after that swap was made last week because of illness. Taylor Duryea must shut down the dangerous Zac Bailey, who is also a potential game-changer. As much as Lachie Hunter is a quality wingman, he might be a player that could instead be used as a high half-forward against Daniel Rich. Hunter has a great ability to know how to stay relevant and could challenge Rich offensively, as well as limit his damaging ball use defensively.
Western Bulldogs injury list
Zaine Cordy (illness) test
Hayden Crozier (concussion) TBC
Ed Richards (shoulder) TBC
Josh Bruce (knee) season
Toby McLean (knee) season
Match odds
Brisbane $1.62
Western Bulldogs $2.30
*TAB
Flag odds
Brisbane $9
Western Bulldogs $10
*TAB
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 11 points
Teams and tips: Cats dump Dalhaus for cutthroat final
Geelong has dumped Luke Dahlhaus as it seeks to keep its season alive against the Giants.
The Cats regained Zach Tuohy and also named Esava Ratugolea and youngster Max Holmes for Friday night’s knockout semi-final.
Dahlhaus has played 21 games this season for a return of 7.15 in front of goal, with just one goal in his past six games. The Bulldogs premiership player had just six disposals and kicked 0.1 in last week’s loss to Port Adelaide.
Sam Simpson is also out while the Giants have replaced Toby Greene (suspended) and Tom Green (broken arm) with Bobby Hill and three-gamer Conor Stone.
Meanwhile, Brisbane has made two changes for its final against the unchanged Western Bulldogs, dropping Jaxon Prior and losing Dan McStay to injury.
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FINALS WEEK TWO TEAMS
GEELONG v GWS GIANTS
Friday September 3, 7:50pm at Optus Stadium
CATS
B: J.Henry, L.Henderson, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: Z.Tuohy, M.Blicavs, T.Atkins
C: C.Guthrie, M.Duncan, I.Smith
HF: E.Ratugolea, J.Cameron, G.Rohan
F: B.Close, T.Hawkins, G.Miers
FOLL: R.Stanley, J.Selwood, P.Dangerfield
I/C: J.Bews, M.Holmes, S.Menegola, B.Parfitt
EMG: S.Higgins, S.Simpson, D.Fort, Z.Guthrie
IN: Z.Tuohy, E.Ratugolea, M.Holmes
OUT: S.Simpson, L.Dahlhaus (both omitted), M.O’Connor (injured), S.Higgins (managed)
GIANTS
B: J.Stein, S.Taylor, I.Cumming
HB: L.Ash, N.Haynes, L.Whitfield
C: J.Kelly, S.Coniglio, H.Perryman
HF: T.Taranto, H.Himmelberg, D.Lloyd
F: Z.Sproule, J.Hogan, M.de Boer
FOLL: S.Mumford, J.Hopper, C.Ward
I/C: T.Bruhn, B.Hill, C.Stone, C.Idun
EMG: J.Riccardi, K.Briggs, P.Davis, J.Peatling
IN: B.Hill, C.Stone
OUT: S.Reid, T.Green (both injured), T.Greene (suspended)
BRISBANE LIONS v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Saturday September 4, 7:20pm at Gabba
LIONS
B: M.Adams, D.Gardiner, B.Starcevich
HB: G.Birchall, H.Andrews, D.Rich
C: H.McCluggage, D.Zorko, M.Robinson
HF: L.McCarthy, T.Fullarton, Z.Bailey
F: K.Coleman, J.Daniher, C.Cameron
FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Lyons, L.Neale
I/C: D.Robertson, J.Berry, N.Cockatoo, J.Payne
EMG: C.Ah Chee, R.Lester, R.Mathieson, C.Ballenden
IN: D.Robertson, J.Payne
OUT: D.McStay (injured), J.Prior (omitted), R.Mathieson (sub)
BULLDOGS
B: E.Wood, A.Keath, B.Williams
HB: T.Duryea, R.Gardner, B.Dale
C: A.Treloar, J.Dunkley, L.Hunter
HF: L.Vandermeer, A.Naughton, B.Smith
F: T.Liberatore, T.English, C.Weightman
FOLL: Le. Young, J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli
I/C: J.Schache, M.Hannan, C.Daniel, R.Smith
EMG: M.Wallis, Z.Cordy, A.Scott, J.Johannisen
IN: Nil
OUT: J.Johannisen (sub)
McGUANE: TACTICS THAT WILL DECIDE SEMI-FINALS
Geelong and GWS both have their issues leading into their do-or-die semi final clash.
The Cats have lost their claws and Patrick Dangerfield is struggling with a finger injury, while the Giants must pull off a miracle without their best player.
GEELONG V GWS GIANTS
Second Semi Final, Perth Stadium, 7.50pm AEST / 5.50pm AWST
Geelong Cats
The key
The blowtorch has deservedly been on Gary Rohan, Patrick Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson and even Cam Guthrie and Joel Selwood after last week’s disappointing loss to Port Adelaide. The focus must be on a fiercer, more committed approach at the football. Winning the contested ball against GWS is a must, because it is the key to unlocking the rest of the Giants’ game. If not, the Cats face a shock straight-sets finals exit. They are 16-2 when they win the contested battle but an alarming zip-five when they don’t. Geelong can’t afford for Nick Haynes and Sam Taylor to mark the Sherrin like Port’s Aliir Aliir.
The theme
Claiming the territory battle shouldn’t be a problem against GWS, but that’s irrelevant if the Cats haven’t heeded the lessons from their Round 21 clash. We saw Geelong’s inefficiency and lack of forward pressure against the Power, and memories are strong of Giants Lachie Whitfield and Isaac Cumming amassing 68 disposals and 1710m gained between them last time. They’re beautiful kicks and if they’re getting the ball that often it makes it easy for GWS to rebound from defensive 50 to inside 50.
The challenge
Ball security and composure. Those words are generally a trademark of Geelong’s play, particularly out of defensive 50, but last week it was non-existent. As a consequence, the Cats were unable to get the Port Adelaide match on their terms. We saw Dangerfield switching from the boundary to the open side with an uncharacteristic long, high kick to Lachie Henderson. That play ended up conceding a goal, when Henderson dropped a straightforward mark. They couldn’t get their uncontested mark game going (a season-low minus-26 differential for Geelong) and it’s almost impossible to defend a turnover down back. The Cats gave up the third-most defensive-half turnovers for the year and the 20 points conceded from those were the fifth-most.
X-factor
Jeremy Cameron. This will be Cameron’s first game against his old teammates, with the chance to justify why Geelong invested so much in him. He’s at his best marking the ball on a lead or floating across a pack as the third man in. If his desire and workrate are there, he’s capable of a big bag of goals.
If I was Geelong
Henderson goes to Jesse Hogan but he must be better defensively than he was last week. I’d also send Mark Blicavs onto Harry Himmelberg, who could threaten the Cats with his athleticism. Jack Henry is the man for Zach Sproule. Rhys Stanley can be a weapon for Geelong in this match-up against battered-up Shane Mumford. Stanley must compete strongly at the stoppages and use his athleticism to push forward and hit the scoreboard. Planning for Whitfield will be vital as well, because he was probably the reason the Giants beat the Cats last time. One of Gryan Miers, Brad Close or Luke Dahlhaus could be a good option to play as a defensive forward on Whitfield.
Injuries
Zach Tuohy (hamstring) test
Mark O’Connor (hamstring) 2-3 weeks
Tom Stewart (foot) TBC
GWS Giants
The key
Dominate the midfield. This is the Giants’ strength and why they’re a good team and playing in the finals. There’s no doubt they will expect a hard-nosed Geelong response after what the Cats dished up a week ago. Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto, Callan Ward, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio will need to bring their own physicality and ball-winning ability to take it up to their experienced midfield rivals. GWS is plus-three in first possession pre-clearance and plus-15 in post-clearance, which highlights just how good Leon Cameron’s side is on the hunt. That’s where the Giants may be able to expose Geelong, especially veterans Selwood and Dangerfield, who can be ‘walkers’ transitioning out of stoppages.
The theme
There are two components here: efficiency when going into attack – a strong suit of theirs – which morphs into a strong forward-half game. Port Adelaide’s high pressure was critical in beating Geelong last week and that’s the template for GWS. In fact, the Power’s pressure factor was the third-highest against the Cats this season. Matching that will not only help create repeat scoring chances for the Giants but also restrict Geelong’s ball movement, which is as proficient as any team in the competition when it is in full flight.
The challenge
Bring the heat and crank it right up. The Cats are ranked 17th between Round 20 and the first week of finals for turning defensive 50s into inside 50s, doing so only 15.4 per cent of the time. It’s really important that GWS doesn’t afford Geelong much time with the ball to continue those struggles. The Giants’ tackle efficiency is the third-best in the AFL, but they rank 13th for forward-half pressure, so they need to lift that rating. If not, the Cats will control the game from their back half. Cameron needs buy-in from his talls and smalls to make this work, which is exactly what Ken Hinkley got from his forwards.
X-factor
Nick Haynes. Sam Taylor and Jake Stein will take care of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, respectively, and Connor Idun will have a lockdown role, too. That means Haynes can effectively be freed up and ideally play on a smaller forward – as Aliir was able to last week – to serve as the interceptor. He’s also composed with ball in hand, making him a major weapon.
If I was GWS
Taylor will go to Hawkins again, but the big question is whether he can replicate his best-on-ground performance from Round 21. Hawkins can turn a final on its head. I would have Haynes playing on smalls to be able to roll off and intercept. Matt de Boer can be the Swiss Army knife. I’d start him in a pressure forward role as someone who can also be an extra midfield option. But if Selwood – Geelong’s spiritual barometer – gets off the chain, I’d pull the trigger and put de Boer on him to quell his influence. Whitfield starts at halfback, with the option of moving him onto a wing or even being used as a conventional ruck-rover.
Injuries
Isaac Cumming (ankle) test
Brent Daniels (hamstring) TBC
Tom Green (arm) season
Toby Greene (suspension) 3 weeks
Adam Kennedy (hamstring) test
Braydon Preuss (back) TBC
Sam Reid (hamstring) test
Match odds
Geelong $1.38
GWS Giants $3.07
*TAB
Flag odds
Geelong $6
GWS Giants $19
*TAB
Prediction: Geelong by 22
BRISBANE LIONS V WESTERN BULLDOGS
First Semi Final, Gabba, 7.20pm AEST
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