AFL 2025: Experts predict the top-eight, remaining fixture difficulty ranked

Is the top eight set? Our experts have named the clubs they think will play finals this year. Plus, who has an easy run to finish the season and the teams that will do it tough.

Is the top eight on the move, or is it all just a little case of history repeating?

Which teams are set for a sweet September, and which could be soured remains to be seen as the likes of Essendon, Carlton and Fremantle nip at the heels of the top eight.

As per Champion Data, in the 18-team era, only twice has the final eight changed after Round 9.

If that history isn’t enough, it has also ranked each club’s remaining draw difficulty.

And it’s tough viewing for the likes of Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon who sit atop the competition for the hardest draw on the way home, while Carlton, Gold Coast, Geelong and the Bulldogs have it easiest.

So what do our experts think? Have your say.

CALLUM DICK

Is the top 8 set? Yes

It would be a genuine shock if any of the current top five are not there come September. Six through eight all have question marks over them, but the Dogs, Cats and Giants have all shown more consistency in performance than any side outside the eight. The Dogs and Giants have a slew of home games to close out the year and the Cats have a relatively soft draw. Carlton looks the only real contender from outside of the eight, but the Blues have to play Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn in the run home. There is very little margin for error from this point.

Hawthorn still have plenty to prove. Picture: Getty Images

ED BOURKE

Is the top 8 set? Yes

Hawthorn has the most to prove of the top eight sides, having only faced two others so far. But the Hawks have a nice buffer at 7-2 and will be in a strong position even if they only win two of their challenging next five games. The sides on the outer all either have serious depth issues or look disjointed on the field, but St Kilda has cause for optimism. The Saints play all of the bottom-four sides in the run home, and have a further eight games at Marvel Stadium against other opponents.

ELIZA REILLY

Is the top 8 set? Yes

I think we’ll still see a race to the top eight unfolding in the last month of the season and spots might not be decided until the final round but it’s hard to see any of the current top eight losing their spots. The Crows continue to improve, the Bulldogs are exceeding expectations, the Cats have plenty of experience and the Giants could get on a roll now. With a percentage of 110, the Blues loom as the biggest threat but they’re 1-3 in games against the current top eight so far this season. The Fremantle rollercoaster looks set to continue while the Bombers are yet to beat a team above them.

Josh Barnes is backing the Blues to play finals. Picture: Michael Klein

JOSH BARNES

Is the top 8 set? No

In: Carlton

Out: GWS Giants

Things are looking much better for the Blues, who have found some form lately and from here, have the easiest run home. I believe in the Giants when they get their game going, and we saw some glimpses of that against the Cats on Sunday, but this is just simply a numbers pick. Of those in trouble in the eight now, they have the toughest run home. Sorry, orange team.

SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON

Is the top 8 set? Yes

Carlton might be the one that can come in at the expense of another, sorry Essendon fans, but the teams in front of the Blues just look too solid at the moment and have good draws to come in the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and GWS. Port Adelaide can get on a run but just don’t look like doing it right now and the Power’s percentage means Ken Hinkley’s side is basically a game further back than it is.

There’s no spot for the Bombers inside the top eight despite their 5-3 record. Picture: AFL Photos

LAUREN WOOD

Is the top 8 set? Yes

Love what the Blues are getting up to but sadly think the form of those above them is going to be what keeps them out. They can maintain the rage all they like but it’s going to take the likes of Geelong, the Bulldogs or the Giants to drop away and I just can’t see that happening — particularly with their respective draws. And sorry, Bombers. Have loved what we’ve seen in the first half of the season but sadly “that” famous X account might yet roll on.

CHRIS CAVANAGH

Is the top 8 set? Yes

I haven’t lost all faith in Carlton making a run, but I can’t trust the Blues yet and fans might well be booking some September holidays during the bye in two weeks’ time. That’s because there is what looms as an elimination final in autumn, against the GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium on May 24. The Giants appear to be the most vulnerable side inside the top-eight at present, given a tough draw to come and some key injuries. That said, GWS came down and conquered one of footy’s biggest challenges at the weekend – beating Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. Carlton’s defence has been strong and ranks No.3 in the competition for points against, but can it handle the might of Jesse Hogan?

Originally published as AFL 2025: Experts predict the top-eight, remaining fixture difficulty ranked