AFL 2024: The history of top 30 draft picks and what to expect from first year players
Is there another Harry Sheezel in this year’s draftee crop – or was he very much an outlier? We break down what history says about every top-30 pick to predict what might happen in 2024.
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It is rare for a first-year player to truly dominate from the get-go.
The players drafted with such promise in November often need at least a year in the AFL system to really get going.
But there are outliers.
In recent years, North Melbourne teen Harry Sheezel dominated and won a best-and-fairest in his first season, Nick Daicos was an instant superstar and Sam Walsh found the ball at will.
The same expectations rest with youngsters Harley Reid, Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders in 2024.
To find out what to expect from those entering their first season, this masthead dived through the numbers of every player selected in the top 30 draft picks in the last five years.
The average games played, debut round and SuperCoach scores for every player who played paints a picture of the quickest draft picks out of the gate.
Those selected at pick 7 have debuted the soonest, No.2 selections have played the most matches and pick four has the best SuperCoach average.
Here is a pick-by-pick run down of what to expect and what it means for this year’s class.
The top pick has not been quite as productive as you might expect, given tall forwards Aaron Cadman and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan were both nursed through their first seasons in the league.
Matt Rowell had an outstanding first five games but got injured, and Jason Horne-Francis was good but not great.
Sam Walsh is the star here as he put together a dominant debut year and cruised to the rising star award.
The pressure on Harley Reid is immense over in the West, and if he can replicate Walsh, it will be a special start to what promises to be a special career.
Both Will Ashcroft and Noah Anderson showed they would be future midfield stars in excellent opening seasons, a blueprint for Colby McKercher at North Melbourne.
McKercher has set the track alight and his co-captain Jy Simpkin said the teen has “dominated” training, largely off half-back, over pre-season.
You can virtually lock him in to play in round 1.
As taller players, Sam Darcy, Riley Thilthorpe and Jack Lukosius didn’t have dominant first seasons but no draft pick in the top 30 has played more games than the No.2 slot in the last five years.
Surely the bar set by Harry Sheezel is too high to leap, given no other player in the past five seasons averaged three-figures in ranking points in their first campaign.
No other No.3 pick fired in nearly the same way as Sheezel in the past five years, with Finn Callaghan and Will Phillips learning the game, while Izak Rankine didn’t play at all.
Luke Jackson played six games for Melbourne back in 2020 and looked good before injury struck.
As a key forward, not much will be expected from Walter in terms of genuine impact on games in his first year, as he learns the position, but he has huge wraps on him.
Expectations are high that Zane Duursma will fire from the half-forward flank early in his first season and history backs him in, with the No.4 pick holding the best ranking point average of any draft choice in this analysis.
One asterisk is that Max King did not debut due to a knee injury, but Nick Daicos and, to a lesser extent, George Wardlaw and Lachie Ash all played well in their first year.
With North Melbourne expected to face another tough year, Duursma may have some quiet games, but he should have plenty of playing time.
Though Nick Watson oozes star potential, the Hawks have heaps of cover for small forwards – Luke Breust, Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan – and history suggests its not easy for a young goalkicker to make immediate impact.
Comparable players Cody Weightman (three games, 32 SuperCoach average), Bobby Hill (eight games, 54 SuperCoach) and Kysaiah Pickett (14 games, 47.7 SuperCoach) all showed something but struggled for consistency in their first year.
Watson has all the tools to be a fan favourite for many years but Connor Rozee is the only player in the past five years to play more than eight games after being drafted at No.5.
History probably doesn’t provide the best guide for ball-magnet Ryley Sanders, given talls Denver Grainger-Barras, Fischer McAsey and Ben King were all taken at No.6 recently, and none had a major impact to start their careers.
Bailey Humphrey and Josh Rachele played well enough to suggest star talent in their first seasons after being taken sixth, but Sanders may surpass them all given he dominated at under-18 level and has his sights firmly on a round 1 debut for the Dogs.
If you’re looking for a strong chance for an early debut, go no further than the No.7 pick.
While Elijah Hollands didn’t play in his first season after a knee injury, the other four most recent draftees played within the first two rounds of their opening season.
Bailey Smith was the standout in a 23-game campaign, while Hayden Young has developed into a good player with Fremantle and Hawthorn has high hopes for pair Josh Ward and Cam Mackenzie.
A winger, Caleb Windsor will have to displace Lachie Hunter or Ed Langdon long term, but the Dees will want to get some games into him in 2024.
Dan Curtin may have a pretty good comparison in 2020 No.8 pick Nik Cox.
Both are fluid talls who can play just about anywhere and Cox had a strong debut year, playing 22 games, before injuries started to bit.
The Crows will hope Curtin can be of use down back given Matthew Nicks’ team has a hole down there but young talls rarely make a big impact in year one.
Ethan Read is no doubt down the pecking order behind Jarrod Witts and Ned Moyle, so may only have scant chances to see senior gametime this year.
No player in recent years has particularly set the world on fire from this draft spot but each of Reuben Ginbey, Josh Gibcus and Archie Perkins had good first years.
All the buzz at the Hangar this pre-season is about Nate Caddy’s competitiveness and he is right in the mix for a round 1 debut.
History backs that up, with the average for the No.10 pick second only to No.7 in terms of earliest first games.
Mattaes Phillipou completed a superb season as the youngest player in the AFL last year, playing every game with St Kilda, while Nick Blakey and Tom Green both were picked here last decade.
Jordan Clark is the only one of Geelong’s players drafted in the top 30 within the past five years to debut in round 1, so it may be tough for Connor O’Sullivan to crack Chris Scott’s side from the get-go.
But the adaptable tall has won plenty of admirers already in Geelong and looks a good chance to play at some point in 2024.
Very different players, but the last two years have seen two strong opening seasons from Ollie Hollands and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
Players selected No.12 tend to debut early, except for Jaspa Fletcher last year, who first played in round 14 but stuck in Brisbane’s side all the way to the grand final.
The Giants obviously love Phoenix Gothard after shocking the room on draft night by taking him, and GWS could use an extra goalkicker.
Could he have a year similar to 2019 No.12 Kysaiah Pickett, who played 14 games?
Koltyn Tholstrup has some of the juice the Dees need at half-forward, so he could come in an add something for the flag contenders.
Bomber Ben Hobbs is the only player taken at pick 13 in the last half-decade to play more than 13 games, but Will Day and Isaac Quaynor are both already star-level players.
It has been pretty barren at pick 14 in recent years, with no player making a huge impact in their first year.
Elijah Hewett is the only player to play more than 10 games but the hardworking midfielder Jake Rogers should be eyeing some football in 2024 given the comparisons between him and Touk Miller.
With the Bulldogs stacked with tall forward options, Jordan Croft may have to bide his time, much like Demon Matthew Jefferson last year.
Jordan Clark is the only No.15 pick to really make hay, having started the year off half-back for Geelong, but he was traded to Fremantle only a couple of years later.
Pick 16 carries the equal-lowest games played on average, plus two players didn’t debut in their first year.
Darcy Wilmot came in to debut in an elimination final with Brisbane and stuck it out and appears on the way to a good career, while Lachie Jones has become a regular at Port Adelaide.
Giant Victorian Will Green appears likely to go through a development year.
If James Leake, an adaptable Tasmania, can replicate Max Michalanney’s debut year that would be a big win for the Giants.
Michalanney stepped in as a ready-made defender and all signs point to him slotting down back for the next decade.
Ollie Henry started brightly for Collingwood, but the other three most recent draftees did not see action in year one.
Gems have been found regularly at No.18, with Josh Weddle, Mitch Georgiades and Xavier Duursma showing plenty early.
Angus Sheldrick also got a debut in round 1, even if he did only play twice.
All reports suggest Darcy Wilson will be another hit.
The running machine has dominated early fitness work at St Kilda and Ross Lyon said in December: “we expect him to play a fair bit of footy”.
Look for him as a round 1 chance.
With none of Ed Allan, Jacob van Rooyen or Sam De Koning playing in year one, returns are scant from the No.19 position recently.
Finlay Macrae played nine games, two as sub, and Liam Stocker played five.
Will McCabe played mostly as a key defender last year and the Hawks have holes to fill at either end so he may get a chance later in the season.
It’s rare for a ruck to come in an make an instant impact, so don’t expect too much early from Taylor Goad.
Max Holmes is the only player drafted here to really move the needle, having played 12 games back in 2021.
Slim pickings at pick 21, with Bowey the only player to really show much.
The hardworking Dee showed the player he would become but breaking into Melbourne’s team late in 2021 and holding a spot until the grand final.
Charlie Edwards is a player that can add some speed to Adelaide across all parts of the field so is a player to watch.
The cupboard is pretty bare at pick 22.
Josh Goater and Deven Robertson were the only players to play in their debut season and featured just once each.
At 200cm, Wil Dawson may get his shot in a North Melbourne side that has plenty of holes.
Only the 29th pick has seen less action than No.23.
Harry Barnett played one game as sub and Sam Butler played nine times, with none of the other draftees getting a gig.
Captain of Western Australia in the under-18 championships last year, Riley Hardeman comes to the Roos as an athletic defender and his side is short on aerial backmen.
No player in the last three seasons has played in year one after being drafted with pick 24.
Bobby Hill was a slow burn before winning a Norm Smith Medal at Collingwood and Harry Schoenberg has developed into a handy player at Adelaide.
Caiden Cleary came second in Sydney’s 2km time trial to start pre-season so entered the club with plenty of legs under him after playing some VFL games with the Swans last year.
James Rowbottom was an immediate success for Sydney after being taken here in 2018 and Harry Demattia will hope to follow suit.
The Pies love Demattia, who has proven his athleticism through pre-season but he faces a tough task breaking into the reigning premier’s side.
A quick runner off half back who uses the ball well, Will Graham could get an early chance to debut with Lachie Weller still recovering from a knee injury.
Only Connor Macdonald has added much in a debut campaign from this draft pick, playing 20 games.
Jesse Motlop is the only player to feature more than twice from this spot.
With the Crows shooting for a finals spot, there won’t be any games gifted to young Oscar Ryan in 2024 but the rebounding defender was highly rated by the Crows and promises to add dash when he gets a chance.
With Jade Gresham out the door, Lance Collard could be tapped to bring some extra goalkicking nous to the St Kilda forward line in 2024.
Ross Lyon has been clear he still wants to get games into the kids while challenging for the top eight but don’t expect much SuperCoach return from Collard, as young forwards rarely make hay in their first year.
A similar type, Tyler Sonsie played seven games and kicked three goals in his first year at Richmond after being taken at No.28.
The worst record of any top-30 pick, only Finn Maginness has played at all from this spot and he played just one game, in round 17.
That doesn’t bode well for Ashton Moir at Carlton and the Blues forward line is stacked with goalkickers.
The other Reid drafted by West Coast, Archer is a tall forward-ruck standing at 203cm.
Traditionally, big men over 2 metres take time to make a true impact so don’t bank on too much immediate action from the youngster.
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