AFL 2022: Every team’s run home analysed ahead of Round 14, with predicted results

Is Carlton a genuine premiership contender or a chance to miss finals altogether? Plus, who will finish in spots 5-8? See our predicted ladder here.

Could Collingwood’s surge to September come right down to the wire with a must-win game over Carlton in Round 23?

How high can Richmond go?

Will Melbourne still cling on to a top-four finish?

We’ve analysed the final 10 rounds to try and find some answers.

See our predicted ladder below.

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1. BRISBANE (10-3, 134.2%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $5.50, Top 8: $1.03, Top 4: $1.28

R14: Bye

R15: Melbourne (MCG) L

R16: Western Bulldogs (Gabba) W

R17: Essendon (Gabba) W

R18: GWS (Manuka) W

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) W

Another week, another win for the Lions in Round 13. Chris Fagan’s side heads into a bye this weekend atop of the ladder and has been wound in from $6 to $5.50 in the premiership betting market with bookmaker TAB. The 21-point win over St Kilda at the Gabba last Saturday night was impressive, but could have been much bigger if not for some inaccuracy in front of goal. Brisbane faces only four more games against current top-eight sides in the run home – including another clash with the Saints and two matches against Melbourne. Five more games at the Gabba also await, where the Lions have gone 6-0 so far this season. However, the first game back after the bye will be an interesting one against the Demons. Brisbane has not won a game at the MCG since 2014 and Steven May will be back to strengthen the Melbourne line-up.

Predicted finish: 2nd

Brisbane has plenty to smile about on top of the ladder. Picture: Getty Images

2. MELBOURNE (10-3, 134%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $3.50, Top 8: $1.02, Top 4: $1.25

R14: Bye

R15: Brisbane (MCG) W

R16: Adelaide (AO) W

R17: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R18: Port Adelaide (TIO) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) L

A mid-season form slump has seen the Demons give up top spot on the ladder – a position they had held since Round 4. They have also been wound out from $2.80 to $3.50 in the premiership betting. The unexpected loss to Collingwood on the Queen’s Birthday was far from ideal, especially given some tough games still lie ahead — particularly over the next three weeks. However, it’s no coincidence that the Demons’ three losses have come while key defender Steven May has been missing from the backline. May is the club’s most important player and is due to return after the bye from concussion and suspension. There are concerns about Melbourne – but let’s not forget this is a side that also dropped games to Adelaide and Collingwood in the middle of last year. Both those sides finished the season in the bottom-four, while the Demons went on to win the flag.

Predicted finish: 4th

The Demons have drifted in betting for the premiership. Picture: Michael Klein

3. FREMANTLE (10-3, 128.5%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $7, Top 8: $1.05, Top 4: $1.50

R14: Bye

R15: Carlton (Marvel) W

R16: Port Adelaide (Optus) W

R17: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R18: Sydney (Optus) W

R19: Richmond (Marvel) W

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

The Dockers were made to work for it, but did what they needed to do against Hawthorn last Saturday and are well-placed entering their bye. Over the past three weeks, they have claimed the scalps of Melbourne and Brisbane and the premiership threat that they pose is real. Fremantle has a reasonable run home and doesn’t fear a challenge, having gone 4-2 against current top-eight sides this season. Top-four looks a lock. The only question now will be if they can climb into the top-two and secure a home final.

Predicted finish: 3rd

Andrew Brayshaw has been leading the charge for Fremantle. Picture: Getty Images

4. CARLTON (9-3, 114.9%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $15, Top 8: $1.25, Top 4: $3.20

R14: Richmond (MCG) L

R15: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R16: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R17: West Coast (Optus) W

R18: Geelong (MCG) L

R19: GWS (Marvel) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

The Blues are back in the top-four for now. But for how long? Their next three games will be very tough, especially with the current injury issues. A 26-point win over Essendon last Friday night was not particularly convincing, with Carlton registering only one more scoring shot than the struggling Bombers. This weekend’s clash with Richmond is a flip of a coin. Carlton scored a 25-point win when the sides last met in Round 1, but the Blues’ line-up will look very different this time around given their injuries. Jacob Weitering, Mitch McGovern, Oscar McDonald, Zac Williams, Marc Pittonet and Adam Cerra all played in the season-opener but are currently sidelined. The next three weeks will tell us a lot about where the Blues are at.

Predicted finish: 8th

Tom De Koning celebrates with Blues fans after Carlton’s win over Essendon. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

5. GEELONG (8-4, 127.6%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $9, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $1.90

R14: West Coast (Optus) W

R15: Richmond (MCG) W

R16: North Melbourne (GMHBA) W

R17: Melbourne (GMHBA) W

R18: Carlton (MCG) W

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Like the Lions, the Cats are gunning for a fourth top-four finish in as many years. Percentage plays an important role in that race and Geelong has a chance to gain plenty of that with two games against West Coast and one against North Melbourne to come. Five of their last 10 games are also a happy hunting ground in GMHBA Stadium, where the Cats have gone 3-1 this season after going 7-2 last year. The three interstate trips to come do not look to be particularly difficult ones against West Coast, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast. It’s conceivable the Cats could get on a real roll in the back half of the season. A second minor premiership in four years is definitely possible.

Predicted finish: 1st

Can Tim Membrey and the Saints improve their record against the better sides? Picture: Getty Images

6. ST KILDA (8-4, 119.1%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.50, Top 4: $3.50

R14: Essendon (Marvel) W

R15: Sydney (SCG) L

R16: Carlton (Marvel) L

R17: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R19: West Coast (Optus) W

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) W

Hope of a top-four finish is fading for the Saints, after a 21-point loss to Brisbane on Saturday night in which they kicked just eight goals. That loss leaves St Kilda’s record against top-eight teams this year sitting at just 2-3 and they still have six more matches against current top-eight sides to come. That will make it an uphill battle to finish top-four. Expect them to get back on the winners’ list against Essendon this weekend, but a tough run of games awaits after that.

Predicted finish: 7th

Swans star Tom Papley. Picture: Michael Klein

7. SYDNEY (8-4, 118.8%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $11, Top 8: $1.15, Top 4: $2.60

R14: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R15: St Kilda (SCG) W

R16: Essendon (MCG) W

R17: Western Bulldogs (SCG) W

R18: Fremantle (Optus) L

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) L

Coming off a bye, the Swans should be ready to attack what looks to be a reasonable run home. They took the scalps of Richmond and Melbourne in the two weeks before the bye and will regain key forward Lance Franklin from suspension for this week’s clash with Port Adelaide. John Longmire’s team plays only four matches against current top-eight sides in the run home, two of those being against a slightly shaky St Kilda which has won just three of its past six matches.

Predicted finish: 5th

It’s high-fives all round for Collingwood at the moment. But Scott Pendlebury’s side still needs a few more wins yet to feature in September. Picture: Michael Klein

8. COLLINGWOOD (8-5, 105.4%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $26, Top 8: $1.95, Top 4: $11

R14: Bye

R15: GWS (MCG) W

R16: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R17: North Melbourne (MCG) W

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Essendon (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

Hand up. I’ve underestimated the Magpies this season. But let’s not forget that this is a side that finished second-last on the ladder last year with just six wins. So, I’m not sure even the most optimistic Collingwood fans saw this surge coming. New coach Craig McRae is certainly getting the best out of his team and confidence among the group is continuing to grow on the back of a fourth-straight win over reigning premier Melbourne on Queen’s Birthday. The prospect of finals football is now very real. If the Magpies can win five of their next six games – which they will be favoured to do – their September prospects could come down to pinching a win against one of the three contenders they face in the final three weeks. You wouldn’t put it past them, given they have already beaten Carlton and Melbourne this year. The main problem that remains for the Pies is their lowly percentage of 105.4 – the worst of the top 11 teams on the ladder. It might take 14 wins to make it to September this year and even then it could still come down to percentage. The second problem is Richmond’s shrinking injury list and relatively easy run home. For those reasons, I can’t have the Magpies making it just yet. But just imagine the drama if it came down to beating arch rival Carlton in Round 23 to make it. What a game that would be.

Predicted finish: 9th

9. RICHMOND (7-5, 117.5%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $13, Top 8: $1.50, Top 4: $4.25

R14: Carlton (MCG) W

R15: Geelong (MCG) L

R16: West Coast (MCG) W

R17: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R18: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R20: Brisbane (MCG) L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

The Tigers got the chocolates against Port Adelaide last Thursday night, but enjoyed only a brief stay in the top-eight before Collingwood bumped them back out with a win on Queen’s Birthday. If they can beat Carlton this Thursday night, though, they’ll be back in with nine games to play and a favourable fixture at that. Including the Blues, Richmond faces just four more games against teams who currently sit above it on the ladder. It still has matches to come against the bottom-three teams – West Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon. We know the Tigers are capable of getting on a run in the back half of the year. Can they do it again?

Predicted finish: 6th

Richmond has a clear path to another September berth. Picture: Getty Images

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-6, 118.5%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $23, Top 8: $2.50, Top 4: $15

R14: GWS (GIANTS) W

R15: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R16: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R17: Sydney (SCG) L

R18: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS)

The Bulldogs have issues on and off the field at the moment. All their eggs are in one basket and that is the return of key forward Josh Bruce. He is expected back in the AFL side in the next couple of weeks. But it might be too late. The Bulldogs have won just two games against top-eight opponents this year – Sydney and Collingwood – and face six teams above them in the run home. Last year’s grand finalists have beaten up on poor teams, but haven’t got the job done against the better sides. With Collingwood’s surge and Richmond’s favourable run home, it’s looking highly unlikely the Bulldogs squeeze into September from here.

Predicted finish: 12th

11. GOLD COAST (6-6, 108%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $81, Top 8: $3.25, Top 4: $21

R14: Adelaide (Metricon) W

R15: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R16: Collingwood (Metricon) W

R17: Richmond (Metricon) L

R18: Essendon (Marvel) W

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) L

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

The Suns won four of their past five matches before the bye, but it would still take something special from here for them to make finals for the first time. They sit two games behind eighth-placed Collingwood (but with one game in hand) and one win behind ninth-placed Richmond. But the interesting thing is that Gold Coast plays both those teams in the next month – on their home turf at Metricon Stadium. Win both of those games against the Magpies or Tigers and it is game on. But lose at least one and you suspect it will be curtains on the Suns’ season as far as September is concerned.

Predicted finish: 10th

Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide side won’t be playing finals this year. Picture: Getty Images

12. PORT ADELAIDE (5-7, 103%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $67, Top 8: $4.50, Top 4: $34

R14: Sydney (AO) L

R15: Gold Coast (AO) W

R16: Fremantle (Optus) L

R17: GWS (AO) W

R18: Melbourne (TIO) L

R19: Geelong (AO) L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO) L

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Forget about playing finals this year, Port fans. Last week’s clash with Richmond was make or break and the Power came up 12 points short – although, it should have been more. Ken Hinkley’s side has done well to dig itself out of the 0-5 hole it started the season in, but last year’s preliminary finalists are simply not good enough this year.

Predicted finish: 13th

13. GWS (4-8, 92%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $151, Top 8: $26

R14: Western Bulldogs (GIANTS) L

R15: Collingwood (MCG) L

R16: Hawthorn (GIANTS) L

R17: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R18: Brisbane (Manuka) L

R19: Carlton (Marvel) L

R20: Sydney (SCG) L

R21: Essendon (GIANTS) W

R22: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R23: Fremantle (Manuka) L

The Giants scored a little percentage-boosting win over a lowly North Melbourne on Sunday, with a few players including the rejuvenated Stephen Coniglio filling their boots in a 49-point triumph. Caretaker coach Mark McVeigh has tried some new things, which has been good to see. But there might not be too many more wins to come in a tough run home.

Predicted finish: 15th

Dylan Moore’s Hawthorn side remains a danger team in the back half of the year. Picture: Getty Images

14. HAWTHORN (4-9, 87.5%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $251, Top 8: $31

R14: Bye

R15: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R16: GWS (GIANTS) W

R17: Adelaide (Marvel) W

R18: West Coast (MCG) W

R19: North Melbourne (Blundstone) W

R20: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R21: Gold Coast (UTAS) W

R22: Richmond (MCG) L

R23: Western Bulldogs (UTAS) W

While the Hawks might have just four wins to their name, no one wants to play them right now. They again took it right up to a top-four side in Fremantle on Saturday, going down by only 13 points. Hawthorn has the potential to shake up the top-eight in the run home. Chances are the Hawks will eclipse last year’s seven-win season, which would be a nice tick for new coach Sam Mitchell.

Predicted finish: 11th

The Crows have dropped off the pace after a solid start to the season. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos

15. ADELAIDE (4-8, 82%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $501, Top 8: $67

R14: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R15: North Melbourne (Blundstone) W

R16: Melbourne (AO) L

R17: Hawthorn (Marvel) L

R18: Collingwood (AO) L

R19: Sydney (SCG) L

R20: Carlton (AO) L

R21: West Coast (Optus) W

R22: North Melbourne (AO) W

R23: Port Adelaide (AO) L

The Crows have dropped off the pace a bit since a solid first six weeks of the season which brought three wins and two losses by less than a kick. In the six games since, Adelaide has won only one match – by 31 points against bottom side West Coast last week. They get the Eagles again in the run home, as well as fellow bottom-two side North Melbourne twice. That should see Adelaide at least equal last year’s seven-win season.

Predicted finish: 14th

16. ESSENDON (2-10, 73.1%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $501, Top 8: $101

R14: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R15: West Coast (Optus) W

R16: Sydney (MCG) L

R17: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R18: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

R19: Collingwood (MCG) L

R20: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R21: GWS (GIANTS) L

R22: Port Adelaide (Marvel) L

R23: Richmond (MCG) L

The Bombers are on a four-game losing streak, the most recent defeat coming by 26 points against Carlton last Friday night. St Kilda won’t be any easier this week and there are also games to come against Sydney and Brisbane in the next month. The way Essendon is going, it’s hard to pencil in any more wins other than two against the battling bottom-two sides in West Coast and North Melbourne.

Predicted finish: 16th

There might not be too many more wins to come for the Bombers this season. Picture: Michael Klein

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-12, 52.3%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $1501

R14: Bye

R15: Adelaide (Blundstone) L

R16: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R17: Collingwood (MCG) L

R18: Richmond (Marvel) L

R19: Hawthorn (Blundstone) L

R20: Essendon (Marvel) L

R21: Sydney (Marvel) L

R22: Adelaide (AO) L

R23: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

The Kangaroos would be relieved to have the bye this week after a horror show of a season so far. They have now lost their past nine games in a row by 47 points or more. If they cannot secure another four points, a one-win season would be the club’s worst result since 1972.

Predicted finish: 17th

18. WEST COAST (1-11, 50.7%)

TAB Odds — Premier: $1501

R14: Geelong (Optus) L

R15: Essendon (Optus) L

R16: Richmond (MCG) L

R17: Carlton (Optus) L

R18: Hawthorn (MCG) L

R19: St Kilda (Optus) L

R20: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R21: Adelaide (Optus) L

R22: Fremantle (Optus) L

R23: Geelong (GMHBA) L

Since entering the AFL, West Coast’s worst season has been a four-win campaign in 2008. It’s hard to see them getting to two wins this season given their struggles and the run home ahead. The first of two games to come against Geelong this weekend could get ugly.

Predicted finish: 18th

Jeremy Cameron celebrates a goal for the Cats. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

FINAL PREDICTED LADDER BEFORE ROUND 14

1. Geelong (18-4)

2. Brisbane (18-4)

3. Fremantle (18-4)

4. Melbourne (17-5)

5. Sydney (16-6)

6. Richmond (14-8)

7. St Kilda (14-8)

8. Carlton (14-8)

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9. Collingwood (13-9)

10. Gold Coast (11-11)

11. Hawthorn (10-12)

12. Western Bulldogs (9-13)

13. Port Adelaide (9-13)

14. Adelaide (7-15)

15. GWS (5-17)

16. Essendon (4-18)

17. North Melbourne (1-21)

18. West Coast (1-21)

Originally published as AFL 2022: Every team’s run home analysed ahead of Round 14, with predicted results