AFL 2022: Every club’s run home and ladder predictor ahead of round 17

With seven rounds to go, is the top eight already locked in for this year’s finals? See who is in and out and what the finals could look like.

How will your club fare in the run home?

It’s time for a number of teams to get busy.

The difference between top spot and finishing outside the four could be minuscule.

And several others’ finals hopes hang on a knife’s edge.

Chris Cavanagh has run the rule over every club’s last seven weeks in a bid to predict how the 2022 ladder will pan out.

1. MELBOURNE (12-3, 139.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $2.75, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.10

R17: Geelong (GMHBA) W

R18: Port Adelaide (TIO) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 1st

Top-of-the-table Melbourne is set to welcome back barometer Max Gawn. Picture: Getty Images

The Demons are back in their groove, winning their past two matches after a mid-season form slump which saw them drop three games in a row. Captain Max Gawn is pushing for a return from an ankle injury this week, which would leave Tom McDonald (ankle) as the only real concern on the injury list. Melbourne still faces five current top-eight opponents in a tough run home. But they sit one game clear on top of the ladder as it stands, so it’s hard to see them missing a top-two spot and home final. If they beat the Cats this week – a team they hammered by 83 points in last year’s preliminary final – they should finish as minor premier for a second year running.

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2. GEELONG (11-4, 135.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $6, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.15

R17: Melbourne (GMHBA) L

R18: Carlton (MCG) W

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

You can’t read a lot into last weekend’s 112-point steamrollering of a struggling North Melbourne, but the Cats are certainly going nicely. They have now won their past six matches on the trot and still have four games to come at GMHBA Stadium where they have won 42 of their past 50 games. Star defender Tom Stewart still has another three weeks to run on his suspension, but Geelong is otherwise in a good spot with availability after the return of Patrick Dangerfield last week.

Jezza’s flying, Danger’s back, but the Cats will have to cope without gun defender Tom Stewart through his suspension. Picture: Michael Klein

3. BRISBANE (11-4, 126.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $8, Top 8: $1.02, Top 4: $1.30

R17: Essendon (Gabba) W

R18: GWS (Manuka) W

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 3rd

Last week’s win over the Western Bulldogs was big for Brisbane, which would have to have a lot go wrong from here to miss what would be a fourth-straight top-four finish. The Lions have now gone 7-0 at the Gabba this season and still have four games to come at their fortress. They also face only three current top-eight opponents in a reasonable run home.

4. FREMANTLE (11-4, 121.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $10, Top 8: $1.04, Top 4: $1.72

R17: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R18: Sydney (Optus) W

R19: Richmond (Marvel) L

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 4th

The Dockers have dropped off a touch over the past month, both through their midfield and with their defensive structure. They have conceded an average of 84.8 points a game to their opposition over the past four weeks, after conceding only 60.3 points a game across the first 11 weeks. St Kilda this week won’t be easy, considering the Dockers lost to Carlton by 31 points on their last trip to Marvel Stadium a fortnight ago. After that, there are three consecutive top-eight sides to play.

5. CARLTON (10-5, 112.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $13, Top 8: $1.25, Top 4: $3

R17: West Coast (Optus) W

R18: Geelong (MCG) L

R19: GWS (Marvel) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 7th

Michael Voss’ men have a tough run home. Picture: Michael Klein

The Blues kicked themselves out of the contest against St Kilda in a 15-point loss last Friday night. The Champion Data expected scores had Carlton winning by 20 points, with Michael Voss’ side enjoying five more shots on goal. Given that result and a tough run home, a top-four finish is highly unlikely. The Blues could have a danger game on their hands against the resurgent West Coast this week and then face four current top-eight sides in the final six weeks.

6. COLLINGWOOD (10-5, 106.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.30, Top 4: $4

R17: North Melbourne (MCG) W

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Essendon (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 8th

Cancel those September holidays, Collingwood fans. You’re headed for September – and Fox Footy’s Nick Riewoldt thinks you can even win the whole thing this year. A spirited win over a Gold Coast side which was playing for its season last Saturday means the Magpies need only three or four more wins from their last seven games – one of which they are bound to get against last-placed North Melbourne this week. Collingwood has already won its past six games and momentum is a nice thing to have on your side at this time of year.

7. RICHMOND (9-6, 117.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $10, Top 8: $1.20, Top 4: $3.50

R17: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R18: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R20: Brisbane (MCG) L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 5th

The Tigers are flying. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

The Tigers continue to firm in the premiership betting markets as a potential danger side from outside the top four. They climbed back into the top eight with a 35-point win over West Coast on Sunday which made for seven wins from Richmond’s past nine games. From here, Richmond only faces two current top-eight sides in Fremantle and Brisbane – with both of those games being in Melbourne. The last interstate trip is on the cards this weekend with a clash against a Gold Coast side whose season is over on Saturday.

8. SYDNEY (9-6, 117.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $18, Top 8: $1.20, Top 4: $3.25

R17: Western Bulldogs (SCG) W

R18: Fremantle (Optus) L

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 6th

The Swans continue to be up and down like a yoyo and have alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks, making it hard to know what to make of them. They coughed up a 26-point lead to lose to Essendon by nine points last Saturday – handing the Bombers just their fourth win of the season. Sydney faces only two more current top-eight opponents in the final seven weeks, being Fremantle and Collingwood. Therefore, there’s not a question mark over whether they will make it to September, but there is a big question mark on whether they can do some damage when they get there.

9. ST KILDA (9-6, 108.2%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $31, Top 8: $2.50, Top 4: $10

R17: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R19: West Coast (Optus) L

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 9th

Paddy Ryder is vital to St Kilda’s finals chances. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

What a difference a couple of key players can make. The returns of Paddy Ryder and Brad Hill were telling as the Saints returned to the winners’ board with an upset over Carlton last Friday night. However, it’s still an uphill battle from here. Defenders Dougal Howard and Hunter Clark were casualties from last week’s match and St Kilda still has to play four current top-eight sides in the final seven rounds – potentially needing five more wins to make the finals cut. It would take something special from Brett Ratten’s side – and some unexpected slip ups from Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney or Richmond.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-7, 115.7%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $41, Top 8: $3, Top 4: $26

R17: Sydney (SCG) L

R18: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 11th

After last week’s 41-point loss to Brisbane at the Gabba, it looks like it’s bye, bye Bulldogs. Last year’s grand finalists would likely have to win five of their last seven matches from here and it’s hard to see that happening given their current form. Their next five matches are against teams who sit above them on the ladder and the Bulldogs have gone 2-5 against current top-eight teams this season.

11. GOLD COAST (7-8, 109.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $201, Top 8: $5, Top 4: $51

R17: Richmond (Metricon) L

R18: Essendon (Marvel) W

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 10th

The Suns were tracking nicely for a while there, but have shot themselves in the foot the past two weeks as far as finals are concerned with narrow losses to Port Adelaide (two points) and Collingwood (five points). They still face three current top-eight opponents in a mixed run home. Unfortunately Gold Coast will have to wait until at least its 13th season in 2023 to make its first finals appearance.

12. PORT ADELAIDE (7-8, 103.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $6, Top 4: $51

R17: GWS (AO) W

R18: Melbourne (TIO) L

R19: Geelong (AO) L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO) L

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Predicted finish: 12th

Can Ken Hinkley save his job? Picture: Getty Images

Last year’s preliminary finalists will be finishing in the bottom half of the ladder this year. A win over Fremantle last weekend would have kept them in the hunt, but an eight-point loss in that game in Perth shut the door on September for this year. The question now is does Ken Hinkley stick around next year?

13. GWS (5-10, 92.9%)

R17: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R18: Brisbane (Manuka) L

R19: Carlton (Marvel) L

R20: Sydney (SCG) L

R21: Essendon (GIANTS) W

R22: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R23: Fremantle (Manuka) L

Predicted finish: 14th

The Giants scored their first win in three weeks with a 22-point triumph in the wet over Hawthorn last Sunday, but have what shapes as a tough run home to come. James Hird doesn’t want the coaching job next year but has backed in caretaker coach Mark McVeigh to continue. The Giants have sounded out Alastair Clarkson though, and are interested in Carlton assistant Ashley Hansen. It hasn’t been a great year, but this looks a side and a playing list that could bounce next season.

14. ADELAIDE (5-10, 84.4%)

R17: Hawthorn (Marvel) L

R18: Collingwood (AO) L

R19: Sydney (SCG) L

R20: Carlton (AO) L

R21: West Coast (Optus) L

R22: North Melbourne (AO) W

R23: Port Adelaide (AO) L

Predicted finish: 15th

The Crows weren’t disgraced in a 29-point loss to reigning premier Melbourne last weekend, but have some work to do if they want to eclipse last year’s seven-win season. They still face three current top-eight sides, plus arch rival Port Adelaide and a resurgent West Coast in Perth. It hasn’t been a horror season for a young side by any stretch, but many would have expected a little bit more from Adelaide this year.

15. HAWTHORN (4-11, 84.8%)

R17: Adelaide (Marvel) W

R18: West Coast (MCG) W

R19: North Melbourne (Blundstone) W

R20: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R21: Gold Coast (UTAS) L

R22: Richmond (MCG) L

R23: Western Bulldogs (UTAS) L

Predicted finish: 13th

After a promising start to the season under new coach Sam Mitchell, the Hawks have now lost five straight matches, including a 22-point defeat to Greater Western Sydney in the wet last Sunday. The side is clearly running out of a bit of steam, but has some winnable games coming up over the next few weeks which could help restore a little confidence.

Mid-season recruit Massimo D’Ambrosio has been a big find for the Bombers. Picture: Michael Klein

16. ESSENDON (4-11, 80.5%)

R17: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R18: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

R19: Collingwood (MCG) L

R20: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R21: GWS (GIANTS) L

R22: Port Adelaide (Marvel) L

R23: Richmond (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 16th

The Bombers showed they are a very capable side with an upset nine-point win over top-eight side Sydney last Saturday. It’s just puzzling where that kind of performance has been hiding for most of the year. Expect Essendon to snag a couple more wins in the run home, but it’s more about development and building for 2023 from here. On that note, it might be worth getting some more games into young defender Zach Reid. Rising Star nominee and mid-season draft pick Massimo D’Ambrosio looks a beauty.

17. WEST COAST (2-13, 57.1%)

R17: Carlton (Optus) L

R18: Hawthorn (MCG) L

R19: St Kilda (Optus) W

R20: Gold Coast (Metricon) L

R21: Adelaide (Optus) W

R22: Fremantle (Optus) L

R23: Geelong (GMHBA) L

Predicted finish: 17th

You would rather not be playing the Eagles at Optus Stadium in the run home. They shape as a side that could score a couple more upsets after rediscovering some form and confidence in recent weeks. Carlton could have its work cut out this week and a few more winnable games await over the following month.

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-14, 49.5%)

R17: Collingwood (MCG) L

R18: Richmond (Marvel) L

R19: Hawthorn (Blundstone) L

R20: Essendon (Marvel) L

R21: Sydney (Marvel) L

R22: Adelaide (AO) L

R23: Gold Coast (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 18th

There was some optimism around North Melbourne during pre-season after a solid second half of last season. But they are a basket case of a club right now. The Roos have won just 12 of 60 quarters of football for the year and copped a 112-point belting at the hands of Geelong last weekend. The problem is, continued pains like this make it hard to attract – and retain – players. Potential No. 1 draft pick Will Ashcroft is weighing up whether to nominate as a father-son to Brisbane or go into the open draft pool in a bid to stay in Melbourne. But would he really want to join the Kangaroos the way things are going at Arden Street right now?

The Pies are expected to play finals in 2022. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

FINAL PREDICTED LADDER

1. Melbourne (18-4)

2. Geelong (17-5)

3. Brisbane (17-5)

4. Fremantle (16-6)

5. Richmond (15-7)

6. Sydney (14-8)

7. Carlton (14-8)

8. Collingwood (14-8)

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9. St Kilda (13-9)

10. Gold Coast (11-11)

11. Western Bulldogs (10-12)

12. Port Adelaide (10-12)

13. Hawthorn (7-15)

14. GWS (6-16)

15. Adelaide (6-16)

16. Essendon (5-17)

17. West Coast (4-18)

18. North Melbourne (1-21)

PREDICTED FINALS WEEK 1

QF: Melbourne v Fremantle

EF: Richmond v Collingwood

EF: Sydney v Carlton

QF: Geelong v Brisbane

Finals bound arch rivals headline grandstand finish to season

- Jon Ralph and Will Hogan

Carlton and Collingwood appear certain to be scheduled for the epic Sunday conclusion of the round 23 floating fixture as the arch rivals push for spots in the top four.

Only the round 23 fixture remains to be finalised in coming weeks as the Blues and Pies push to play finals in the same season together for the first time since 2013.

Brisbane looks set to host Melbourne at the Gabba in the Friday night encounter of round 23, with the ideal scenario a contest that saw one of them seal a double chance.

Last year Melbourne knocked off Geelong on the siren to seal the minor premiership after coming from 39 points down at half time in a perfect slice of drama to set up the finals series.

It comes as the AFL confirmed Rounds 1 to 15 of the 2023 season will be locked in and won’t be a floating fixture as per the previous seasons.

The decision to give fans more certainty about what the fixture looks like comes off the back of lower crowds this season compared to pre-Covid levels.
The AFL will also return to traditional ticketing for next season and will look closely at earlier start times on Friday nights.

“There is momentum building for an earlier start on Friday night,” AFL GM of Broadcasting and Clubs Travis Auld said on 3AW.

“We’re trying to understand whether behaviours have changed with not as many people going to the office,”

The Demons are atop the ladder by a game and percentage, with Brisbane in a bunched field of three teams on 11 wins along with Geelong and Fremantle.

The Pies and Blues are pushing to play finals in the same season for the first time since 2013. Picture: Getty Images

The league has again scheduled a pre-finals bye that will feature round 1 of the AFLW competition and will start its men’s 2022 finals series with a Thursday clash in week one.

Carlton will host Collingwood at the MCG in round 23 and all signs point to it being locked in as the 3.20pm Channel 7 game on Sunday.

The Blues kicked off the season with a home win against Richmond and are so far averaging crowds of 45,104 as they become one of the hottest tickets in town.

Ideally the Blues or Collingwood have a top four or finals spot on the line to add tension to that game, which would be followed by a twilight encounter as the last home-and-away contest of the year.

There are enough contests with finals ramifications that the possibility remains of a ‘win-and-in’ style contest in that Sunday twilight slot.

The AFL is expected to leave the Carlton Collingwood clash for a possible top-4 spot to the very end of the final round. Picture: Michael Klein

Essendon-Richmond, Geelong-West Coast, GWS-Fremantle, Hawthorn-Western Bulldogs and St Kilda-Sydney are round 23 contests likely to have a significant bearing on the eight.

In 2017 the Demons had to sweat on the final margin of the West Coast victory over Adelaide in that Sunday twilight spot but missed out by 0.5 percentage points.

Originally published as AFL 2022: Every club’s run home and ladder predictor ahead of round 17