AFL 2021: Take a deep dive into St Kilda’s prospects for 2021 with our award-winning experts

St Kilda fans are pumping up their team’s chances in 2021, but club legend Nick Riewoldt says the Saints are still “two to three years away” from contending.

Could the Saints finally be ready to march in again?

St Kilda re-emerged as a competitive outfit during 2020’s interrupted season and there’s a buzz around the club not felt in years.

But are they the real deal? Here’s what our experts think about their prospects in 2021.

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Nick Smart’s six people who will define the club in 2021:

St Kilda medicos have plenty of work to do keeping a number of stars on the ground. Picture: Michael Klein

■ The Saints’ doctors and physio:

It has been a tumultuous off-season at Moorabbin for the Saints’ medical team. Captain Jarryn Geary broke his leg, midfielder Zak Jones tore a hamstring and youngster Ryan Byrnes required surgery to repair his hamstring. More recently, it was revealed ruckman Rowan Marshall will miss the start of the season with a stress problem in his foot. The pressure will be on the Saints’ medicos to get them right, and also to keep ruckman Paddy Ryder healthy. He has made strong progress from the hamstring tendon surgery that formed him to miss last year’s semi-final loss to Richmond, but he’ll need to be well tended to.

Jade Petracca? Jordan De Gresham? Has this Saint got it in him? Picture: Getty Images

■ Jade Gresham:

Can Jade Gresham become St Kilda’s version of Christian Petracca or Jordan De Goey? He’s not that size but he has X-factor and has the ability to turn a game. He can also go through the middle, where he can win the ball and do something special with it. There are some flaws to his game but he has what the Saints need in that part of the ground. He’s still yet to finish in the top five of their best and fairest, so 2021 is his time to shine. It will all come down to his professionalism and application, and luck on the injury front he was not afforded last year.

Can Brad Hill recapture his best form after a down year? Picture: Getty Images

■ Brad Hill:

It is time for the three-time premiership player to get a wiggle on at St Kilda. Don’t get us wrong, his first year at the Saints was serviceable. Although, it is fair to say the former Hawk and Docker fell short of expectations. After a strong start he had a mid-season dip, and then his finals campaign left a lot to be desired. His dash and speed is highly valued at Moorabbin, and he is more the capable of going to another level in 2021. Is said to have had a strong pre-season.

The giant Max King has the potential to be a superstar of the competition. Picture: Michael Klein

■ Max King:

The young man wearing Nick Riewoldt’s number is a future star. Period. He’s only 20 and kicked 22 goals last season from 18 games. The big question at the end of last year was would there enough support up for him up forward in 2021? Tim Membrey is there as a second tall and is more than adequate, but some still felt they were a tall forward short. Enter Mason Wood. The recent addition of the former Roo will help and he’s made an immediate impact, booting four goals in last week’s trial win over North Melbourne.

Jack Higgins has sought greener pastures at St Kilda. Picture: Getty Images

■ Jack Higgins:

Higgins believed he lacked opportunity at Richmond, which was the deciding factor in his off-season move to Moorabbin. Chasing more game time, the 21-year-old former first round draft pick made a promising start to his new life as a Saint with two goals in the club’s scratch match win over the Roos last week. As we know, Higgins loves a snag. He’ll love crumbing at the feet of King, Membrey, Wood and Ryder this season, adding to the potency of a small forward brigade that includes the likes of Dan Butler, Josh Battle and Jack Bytel.

James Frawley has emerged as a very important insurance policy for the Saints. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

■ James Frawley:

A ‘few beers’ at the Noosa Surf Lifesaving Club with former teammate and St Kilda staffer Jarryd Roughead post-season last year convinced James Frawley to reconsider his retirement.

The early signs indicate he had the right call in playing on. Frawley hasn’t lost it. The premiership Hawk played a commanding role in the back half alongside Dougal Howard and Callum Wilkie in last week’s scratch match. He was brought in as an insurance policy in case Howard goes down, and also to share some of his expertise with the Saints’ defenders. He is now well in the frame to play Round 1, particularly following young defender Ben Paton’s recent double leg break. What an unlikely bonus it will be for the Saints if Frawley can make an impact in 2021.

The Saints are giving coach Brett Ratten plenty of reasons to smile. Picture: Michael Klein

BEST 22

B: Jake Carlisle, Dougal Howard, James Frawley

HB: Nick Coffield, Callum Wilkie, Jimmy Webster

C: Bradley Hill, Seb Ross, Hunter Clark

HF: Dan Butler, Tim Membrey, Jade Gresham

F: Jack Billings, Max King, Jack Higgins

R: Paddy Ryder, Zak Jones, Jack Steele

Int: Mason Wood, Josh Battle, Jack Lonie, Jack Sinclair

EMG: Ben Long, Tom Highmore, Jack Bytel

INS: Jack Higgins, Brad Crouch, Shaun McKernan, James Frawley, Mason Wood, Matthew Allison (pick 26), Tom Highmore (pick 45)

OUTS: Nick Hind (traded), Ed Phillips (delisted), Matty Parker (delisted), Doulton Langlands (delisted), Ryan Abbott (delisted), Jack Bell (delisted), Jack Mayo (delisted), Logan Austin (delisted), Jonathon Marsh (delisted), Shane Savage (delisted), Nathan Brown (retired)

CHAMPION DATA

The good: The Saints averaged 38 points from their forward half chains last season – ranked second.

The bad: The Saints conceded a score from 42% of their oppositions inside 50 entries – ranked 14th defensively.

EXPECTED FINISH

Barring a disaster, St Kilda will play finals. The million dollar question is whether or not they can jump from the fifth to eighth bracket to the lofty heights of the top four. We think not just yet, but they’re well and truly in the conversation.

Prediction: fifth to eighth.

The Saints should have plenty to celebrate in 2021. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES

Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson tackles the Saints.

LIKES

Jack Higgins comes in for Nick Hind, Brad Crouch adds class to the midfield, Max King is a year older, Bradley Hill won’t be as poor and belief can only help. There are more positives, such as Nick Coffield and Hunter Clark — and Rowan Marshall, when he overcomes injury — young fellas who are playing huge roles but will be required to become better leaders. The Saints are a good team, but the jury is out about whether they can be a great team. The midfield depth will be a weapon and Brett Ratten will continue to oversee a fast brand of football. The development of King will be a key. He needs to develop stickier fingers and, when that happens, it will give him more shots at goal. Fifty goals is not beyond him.

DISLIKES

Nothing screams out about the Saints and how they go about it. Speed is their key, but with that comes turnover issues. But as the game plan and discipline continues to evolve, the Saints become harder to beat. They will compete, there’s no doubt about it. Lost four games by six points or fewer last year, so they are ready to challenge. It’s a team effort, of course, but it’s up to the midfielders to stamp themselves on the competition. The midfield is good without being great and Hill, for one, and Sebastian Ross and Jack Billings need to go to another level again. Ross is a defence‑minded mid, a la Scott Pendlebury, and could be a go.

VERDICT

September beckons.

St Kilda has a strong core of leaders. Picture: Getty Images

BURNING QUESTIONS ANSWERED

Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis join Robbo to give their predictions for 2021 on St Kilda:

ROBBO: Won a final and lost a final in 2020. Did you see enough last year and what they picked up this summer to be a top-four contender this year?

JORDAN: I don’t know about top four. I think they’ll sit in the conversations just below that, between fifth and eighth. I still think they’re two stars away from being a complete side.

ROBBO: In what areas?

JORDAN: I think down forward with that second tall. Tim Membrey is better than serviceable but I think they just need someone to help Max King out there. And I think their midfield is a bit same-same. They’re great ball winners and ball hunters, but they’re just one paced.

ROOEY: Jade Gresham is a player I think that can go through the midfield who didn’t play the majority of the year in 2020 but can bring a little bit of that difference. He can win the ball where there’s no space and create space and do something special with it. He’s got flaws to his game but I think he’s a bit of what they need to inject through that part of the ground.

KINGY: What is Gresham though? He’s five years in, never had a top three in the best and fairest, his body let him down a bit last year. How big can this guy go?

ROOEY: I think that will come down to how professional he can be in his application towards the game. There’s room to grow.

JOEY: He’s St Kilda’s version of Petracca and De Goey. Obviously not that size, but he has that real X-factor that can play in the forward half and turn a game.

KINGY: Overall, my reservation is are they building towards a premiership or they building for that second week of finals type? Is that their ceiling? Because I look at their midfield and they go up against quality when you get to that stage of the year. Can they come into the top four discussion? That’s my reservation.

There is an optimism at the Saints thanks to their new and improving faces.

JOEY: Surprisingly, St Kilda go into 2021 as second in the comp for average games and the oldest list in the competition.

ROBBO: That’s happened quickly, hasn’t it?

JOEY: It has happened quickly. They are a team that have their group ready for now and they’re tracking in the right direction, but are they good enough to leapfrog Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Geelong? Or are they a rung below?

ROOEY: I don’t think they’re quite there yet, but they’ve recruited really well the last couple of years. They haven’t had to give away the world or pay the world, other than Brad Hill, to get these guys across. I think they’re realistic enough to know they’re two to three years away.

KINGY: And they’ve done it at the expense of the draft with only four top 30 selections the last four years.

JOEY: But they’ve nailed the nucleus of five or six guys that you need to build around.

ROBBO: Verdict, Rooey?

ROOEY: Sixth to 10th in that range, but they should play finals.

KINGY: I think they’re a lock for the eight, but not sure they progress any further.

JORDAN: Top eight for me. I think they’ve now built a culture and a name for players who are in free agency to look at St Kilda and think, ‘I’d love to go and play there.’

Originally published as AFL 2021: Take a deep dive into St Kilda’s prospects for 2021 with our award-winning experts