AFL 2022: The best and worst teams at managing momentum swings

Momentum in the AFL is the new word on everyone’s lips. So what is it, which clubs are king and which have work to do. Chris Cavanagh on footy’s new fad.

Chris Cavanagh

@chriscavanagh1

4 min read

April 5, 2022 - 8:35PM

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Essendon has been the worst team in the AFL at stopping momentum so far this season, while reigning premier Melbourne is again proving to be the best side at getting on a roll.

AFL coaches have declared stopping momentum swings the “biggest challenge” in football as teams increasingly take the game on and do damage from centre bounces.

Melbourne kicked 12 straight goals in the second half of last year’s Grand Final in one of the biggest momentum swings in recent history.

The trend has continued into the new season, with St Kilda kicking 10 unanswered goals against Richmond last weekend and Geelong booting the last eight goals against Collingwood.

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Just try to stop Christian Petracca and the Dees when they get on a roll. Picture: Getty Images

Champion Data analysis shows that Melbourne is the best momentum team in the competition this year, having gone on runs of three or more consecutive goals on eight occasions.

On the other hand, a winless Essendon has conceded runs of three or more goals on 11 occasions from its opening three games.

St Kilda coach Brett Ratten said that many games were now being decided by momentum swings.

“It’s probably the biggest challenge in the coaches’ box – how do you maintain it longer than the opposition?” Ratten said on Fox Footy’s AFL360.

“The centre bounces have really added to that as well. But I think teams are more daring with the footy and trying to really exploit the opposition. I think that’s why scoring has gone up a little bit.

Essendon has been the worst team at stopping momentum this year. Picture: Michael Klein

“Teams go into their shells a little bit when there’s multiple goals scored in a row and the backline’s under enormous pressure.

“Teams have all got a man behind the ball or try and stop the flow of play, depending on where it’s coming from. It will still be used by coaches, but trying to flick the switch to stop it from five minutes to two is the critical thing and it’s been hard to stop this year.”

Hawthorn midfielder Jaeger O’Meara said that the 6-6-6 rule made it hard to stop momentum if a team is getting beaten in centre clearances.

“The biggest thing is probably the centre bounce,” O’Meara said.

“If you can score from centre bounce and get goals consecutively from centre bounce, it’s really hard to arrest that momentum.

“We weren’t able to put enough pressure on the ball in the first quarter against Carlton and that put our defenders under the pump.”

Brisbane has gone on streaks of five or more goals on four occasions this year, two of those coming against North Melbourne last weekend.

St Kilda kicked 10 unanswered goals against Richmond in the biggest streak this year. Picture: Getty Images

Alarming stat shows Port, Dons seasons hanging by thread

Embrace the hype Carlton fans because you are one win away from making finals — if history is an accurate judge.

Statistics show that teams that start an AFL season 4-0 — the Blues, Melbourne and Brisbane have all won their first three — are a 92 per cent chance of playing in September the same year.

A hot start also means that a top four finish is more likely than not. Teams that kick off a season with four straight wins are a 67 per cent chance to grab a double chance, according to Champion Data.

The red-hot Blues tackle Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium on Sunday and, heading into the game, sits equal-fourth in the premiership betting market at odds of $9 with TAB.

History suggests Carlton captain Patrick Cripps is headed towards his first finals series this year. Picture: Michael Klein

The news is not so good for Voss’ former mentor Ken Hinkley and his 0-3 Port Adelaide.

History says that he has just a 12 per cent chance or steering Port Adelaide back to finals – which will drop to three per cent if the Power cannot overcome reigning premier Melbourne on Thursday night.

Champion Data analysis shows that only nine of 58 teams have missed finals under the current top-eight system after starting a season 3-0, making for juicy odds of 84 per cent.

Those odds of featuring in September rise to 92 per cent for teams that have started their campaigns with a 4-0 record, with only three of 36 teams having missed the cut from that position.

The two Grand Finalists last year – Melbourne and Western Bulldogs – both started the 2021 season 4-0, along with a Sydney team which finished sixth.

In 2020, Port Adelaide started its season 4-0 and went on to claim the minor premiership, while Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond all finished top-three in 2017 after an equally-impressive first month.

Carlton coach Michael Voss said on Sunday that his side was embracing the hype as the club vies to play finals for the first time since 2013.

“I’m not here to take the excitement away from our supporters,” Voss said.

“You only have to listen to that noise out there and realise just how much passion is in there, we are not going to take that excitement away.”

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley walks off with his players after the Showdown loss. Picture: AFL Photos

The data isn’t good for the other winless sides, Essendon and West Coast, either.

Only seven of 60 teams have recovered from 0-3 to play finals – chances of just 12 per cent – and only one of 33 teams have featured at the pointy end of the season after going 0-4.

That outlier was Sydney in 2017, which finished sixth on the ladder after a 0-6 start to its campaign.

North Melbourne was the only team to start 0-4 last year and went on to win the wooden spoon.

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley said after his side’s Showdown loss to Adelaide on Friday night that he wasn’t pushing the panic button just yet, but admitted the Power have some serious work to do.

“We understand it gets challenging,” Hinkley said.

“We just don’t look too far. That’s a long way to look isn’t it?

“We’ve just got to stay here and look right now how we get to win number one, don’t worry about win number two, three or four or however many it might take, let’s get to win number one as quick as we possibly can.”

West Coast tackles Collingwood on Saturday, while Essendon hosts Adelaide on Sunday.