AFL 2021: Take a deep dive into Adelaide’s prospects for 2021 with our award-winning experts
Adelaide started the 2020 season 0-13 but won three of its last four games – will the Crows continue their upwards trend or crash to another wooden spoon?
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Adelaide struggled in its first season under coach Matthew Nicks, claiming the club’s inaugural wooden spoon.
The Crows looked local in last year’s draft, snapping up West Adelaide forward/ruckman Riley Thilthorpe among a handful of other promising South Australians.
After finishing 2020 strongly with three wins from their last four games, can Adelaide continue that upward trend heading into the new season?
Our group of experts give their thoughts.
The Advertiser footy writer Matt Turner’s six people who will define the Crows in 2021:
* John Olsen: The new chairman is already making his mark. Since taking over from Rob Chapman in October, former SA Premier Olsen has done plenty, including overseen the resignation of Andrew Fagan – which Fagan denies Olsen forced – and attempted to restart negotiations with Adelaide City Council over a move into the CBD. The influential leader will help appoint Fagan’s successor and their strategic vision for the club will help shape its next era.
* Matthew Nicks: All coaches are optimistic in pre-season but Nicks is buoyed by the improvement his side showed at the end of last year to win three of its final four games. The addition of high draft picks and new assistants helps, so he will be desperate to carry that positivity into the campaign. A strong start – after being 0-13 last year – is crucial. Last season was a tough initiation into senior coaching for Nicks, not least because the club finished with its first wooden spoon but also due to COVID and all the restrictions and constant uncertainty that came with it. This year is a chance for him to make more of a mark.
* Darcy Fogarty: This needs to be the season the Fog emerges from a potentially good AFL player to an important part of the club’s forward line. Drafted at pick 12 in 2017, Fogarty has been limited to just 24 games and 26 goals over three seasons. But after improving his fitness and impressing on the track over summer, teammates and coaches are talking up Fogarty as one to watch in 2021. The fact he is out of contract at the end of the season adds intrigue to how he performs.
* Marco Bello: With the Crows entering the campaign as the competition’s youngest and least experienced side, the new development coach has his work cut out. Bello, a five-time SANFL premiership player at Central District, arrives from Hawthorn and will be hoping to fast-track the young talent at West Lakes. He will play a key role in getting last year’s draftees up to speed with the elite level. And it one of the most important crops in club history, given where the Crows are in their rebuild. Riley Thilthorpe (pick No. 2), Luke Pedlar (No. 11), Sam Berry (No. 28) all look a strong chance to play early in the season, while Brayden Cook (No. 25) is raw but has a lot of promise as a skilful half-forward.
* Justin Reid: Adelaide has 23 players out of contract at the end of the season so the Crows’ list manager will have plenty of work to do as the club continues to refashion its list. Matt Crouch, Tom Doedee, Rory Laird, Daniel Talia, Reilly O’Brien and Tom Lynch headline the players without deals beyond this year. Adelaide will not want as much player turnover as it has undergone over the past two off-seasons so negotiations will be key. There are several SA-raised free agents who may appeal, too. Reid has already had a strong influence this year, re-signing Brodie Smith, Harry Schoenberg and Luke Brown.
* Matt Crouch: Will Matt follow his brother Brad out the exit door? That question will continue to be posed around football circles while Matt remains unsigned beyond this season, when he will become a free agent. He was dropped in 2020 but bounced back to finish the campaign strongly. Rival clubs will come calling and at 25, he will have a big decision to make about his future. He will face Brad when the Crows meet St Kilda in Round 13.
BEST 22
B: Luke Brown, Daniel Talia, Tom Doedee
HB: Mitch Hinge, Jordon Butts, Brodie Smith
C: Tom Lynch, Rory Sloane, Lachlan Sholl
HF Harry Schoenberg, Darcy Fogarty, Ben Keays
F: Shane McAdam, Taylor Walker, James Rowe
R: Reilly O’Brien, Matt Crouch, Rory Laird
Int: Riley Thilthorpe, Jackson Hately, Andrew McPherson, Chayce Jones
INS: Mitch Hinge (Brisbane), Jackson Hately (GWS), Riley Thilthorpe (national draft, pick two), Luke Pedlar (pick 11), Brayden Cook (pick 25), Sam Berry (pick 28), James Rowe (pick 38), James Borlase, Tariek Newchurch (Next Generation Academy rookies)
OUTS: Bryce Gibbs (retired)*, Brad Crouch (St Kilda), Rory Atkins (Gold Coast), Kyle Hartigan (Hawthorn), Ben Crocker, Jordan Gallucci, Riley Knight, Ayce Taylor, Myles Poholke, Patrick Wilson (delisted)
* Gibbs is remaining on the list because the club is paying part of his contract this year but is an ineligible player.
CHAMPION DATA SAYS
Good: From Round 13 onwards, Adelaide won the contested possession count by 12 per game, ranking second in the league. It also scored from 44 per cent of its inside 50 entries to rank fifth.
Bad: Early season stoppage numbers, worst ever clearance (-10.2) and centre bounce clearance (-6.0) side after Round 12 since 1999.
FIRST SIX GAMES
Geelong (home), Sydney (away), Gold Coast (home), North Melbourne (away), Fremantle (home), Hawthorn (away)
Adelaide needs to make hay while the sun shines and get off to an encouraging start because its first six weeks look less difficult on paper than the next six. Playing the Cats at home in their season-opener is tough, but then the Crows have winnable games against teams that finished 16th, 14th, 17th, 12th and 15th last season. We think Adelaide will be 3-3, beating the Suns, Kangaroos and Dockers, to match its 2020 win count and give a solid platform for the matches ahead.
EXPECTED FINISH
14th (8-14)
Adelaide’s favourable early draw will help, but it is still likely to be a way off matching some of the top sides. Winning eight games would be a positive result for the club after the struggle of 2020.
ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES
Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson gives his take on the Crows.
LIKES
Firstly, I simply can’t look at the tips and select the team Adelaide is playing. Did that for three quarters of last season before the Crows found their game plan and confidence. Won three of the last five, losing to Geelong (28 points) and Richmond (44). It helped rescue a somewhat dreadful season. You would hope that stretch was the turning point. Let’s be honest, they won’t play finals, and the youth path will continue in earnest. That’s OK. That’s where they are. Will Hamill, Lachlan Sholl, Ned McHenry, Harry Schoenberg, Chayce Jones, Fischer McAsey, Elliott Himmelberg, Tyson Stengle (maybe) and others will have their moments, if not matches, this season and that’s what Crows fans should be satisfied with.
DISLIKES
Darcy Fogarty is 21. It’s young for a key forward, but talent doesn’t know age. Fogarty looks good – and big, maybe too big – and this season looms large for him. He could be king of the kids or be overtaken by them, it’s really in his court. When a team wins the wooden spoon, there’s usually a list of “dislikes” the length of Hindley St. Not so with the Crows. The critics will come if the game plan falls apart, which will then shine the light on effort, intent and unity, and the losses will mount. Don’t worry about who left (Brad Crouch), worry about who’s there and get excited about which kids will replace Crouch in the middle.
VERDICT
Will be in the vicinity of the spoon.
BURNING QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson joins Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis to give their predictions for 2021.
ROBBO: The Crows won three from four coming home. Jordan, does that mean anything coming into this season?
JORDAN: I think it helps their mentality to get through the pre-season and to not fear 2021. They’ve drafted really well with Riley Thilthorpe and Luke Pedlar, so they’ve got a key position player. My question I suppose with Adelaide is what they do with Tex Walker next year. And I think it’s good they’ve kept him around now that they’ve got this young key position player coming through to learn off Tex. Their issue last year was their midfield. They just lacked depth – so to lose Brad Crouch, and to have to play (Rory) Laird and (Brodie) Smith through that, where they’re not necessarily fitted to that position, I think will be the question mark. Whether they play Laird in there to add a bit of speed, or whether they play him at halfback where he is best suited (is the question).
ROBBO: Do you like their style of football, Joey?
JOEY: It’s an attacking style and I don’t mind it. And it seems like they’ve drafted players accordingly. We know where they’re at. We know they’re developing and a young side and will take a number of years, but I think the last six weeks of 2020 will really help with their belief.
ROOEY: Is it finally a clean slate for them? Because it feels like there has been noise every year since 2017. It just feels like there is no expectation and no noise. Even in 2020, there was still the talk about the camp and the fact they’ve blown it up. I think now Matty Nicks finally gets some clear air. The question I have about Adelaide is if it’s more what we saw at the end of 2020, then everyone can wear that? But if it’s what we saw at the start of 2020 where they couldn’t execute basic handovers and they were non-competitive, is Adelaide the sort of town where the pressure and the ferocity of scrutiny will ramp up really quickly? Particularly if Port Adelaide across town continues to do well?
ROBBO: Verdict, Jordan?
JORDAN: I still think they’ll be bottom four. I think they still need to go through more of a rebuild and try and find that X-factor and that star that can potentially build their next 10 years of success.
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