Adelaide Crows are in the hunt for the 2025 AFL premiership | Andrew Capel
Forget the heartbreaking loss to Hawthorn, Adelaide is the real deal this season and can enter its mid-season break knowing it is right in the premiership race, writes Andrew Capel.
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Forget the heartbreaking loss to Hawthorn, Adelaide is the real deal this season.
The Crows can enter their mid-season break knowing they are in the AFL premiership race up to their eyeballs.
Sure, last Friday night’s three-point loss to the Hawks in Launceston was a bitter pill to swallow after they led for most of the game, including boasting a lopsided 37-19 inside 50 count at halftime, and butchered a host of gilt-edged chances in front of goal.
But, apart from not coming home with the four premiership points, there were more positives than negatives from the performance.
Adelaide was the better team against another flag contender, which has now won eight consecutive games at its Tasmanian home venue, for the majority of the contest.
Provided they stay relatively healthy and don’t lose key players to injury in the run home, which can ruin any club’s chances, the Crows will not only play finals for the first time since their last grand final appearance in 2017, but they can go all the way.
Currently sitting fourth with a 9-5 win-loss record, Adelaide boasts the best percentage in the competition (135.2), which could be crucial in securing an all-important top-four spot at the end of the minor round, and has scored the second-most points.
Its total of 1357 (average 96.92) is second only to free-scoring Geelong (1426, average 101.85).
While the Cats beat up on the young, injury-riddled Bombers at the MCG last Saturday, kicking 23.13 (151) in a whopping 95-point victory, the Crows managed only 5.14 (44) in foggy, slippery conditions in Launceston, where Hawthorn’s 6.11 (47) was its lowest winning VFL-AFL score since 1948.
While questions have been raised about Adelaide’s insistence on playing three tall forwards – Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and veteran Taylor Walker – it has the firepower to create havoc when the grounds get drier, firmer and faster in the finals in September.
Throw in dangerous smalls Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele and the super-important Ben Keays and it will be a nightmare match-up for most rival defences.
The Crows’ backline, with important support from a more defensive-minded midfield and attack, has performed well since some early-season struggles.
Adelaide has conceded an average of 71.71 points for the season – the second-best defensive record behind top-of-the-table Collingwood (68.69).
The Crows’ attacking and defensive numbers illustrate they are right in the flag mix.
And their backline is poised to be boosted after their mid-season break, following standout key defender Nick Murray’s strong return from a knee injury in the SANFL last Saturday, when he starred against Central District with 17 disposals and five marks in the wet in his first game since Anzac Day.
Important midfielder James Peatling – one of the key recruits the club secured in the off-season, along with Melbourne premiership player Alex Neal-Bullen and utility Isaac Cumming – will also return to the Crows side after the bye after he missed the Hawthorn clash through suspension.
With injuries poised to play a big part in the run home to the finals, Adelaide has only a handful of players on its injury list – Matt Crouch (hip), Toby Murray (ankle), Oscar Ryan (jaw), Harry Schoenberg (quad) and Tyler Welsh (toe).
None of them would be in its best 23 at the moment.
Significantly, the Crows boast great depth, with their SANFL team flying high in third spot, with a 7-2 win-loss record – their best start to a state league season.
Their talent runs so deep that last year’s prized first-round draft pick, explosive midfielder Sid Draper, who was selected at pick 4, can’t even get an AFL game.
In contrast, some of Adelaide’s major flag rivals have copped some hits, with reigning premier Brisbane losing ace key defender Jack Payne on the weekend to a season-ending knee injury.
The Lions, Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn – sitting third, top, second and fifth respectively – appear to be the Crows’ biggest flag challengers, while the ninth-placed Western
Bulldogs loom as a dangerous proposition if they can get on a roll following star key forward Sam Darcy’s return from a knee injury.
Apart from Murray’s return, Adelaide has some upside in round 13 Rising Star nomination Daniel Curtin’s continual improvement.
The 20-year-old tall earned a Rising Star nod for his 14-disposal, six-mark performance in the Crows’ five-point win against Brisbane but he was even better against the Hawks, with 13 disposals, six marks (second-most at Adelaide behind Wayne Milera’s seven) and a goal in tough conditions.
The No. 8 pick at the 2023 national draft from Western Australia is starting to come of age and, because of his versatility, can play a key role in various positions for Adelaide in the run into the finals.
The Crows’ fixture is favourable for the rest of the home-and-away campaign.
Of their last nine games, five are at home at Adelaide Oval – against Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Collingwood – while their away matches are against Richmond (MCG), Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium), West Coast (Perth) and North Melbourne (Marvel).
They are likely to start favourites in at least seven of those clashes.
The Eagles, Tigers, Kangaroos and Demons occupy the bottom four spots on the ladder.
Critics will point to the Crows’ 2-5 record against other top-eight teams this season, but Adelaide’s defeats have come by a combined 51 points with its heaviest loss being to the Cats by 19 points.
With a bit of luck, it would have beaten Hawthorn on the weekend and Gold Coast (losing by one point on the road in round four), while it could also have knocked off the white-hot Magpies at the MCG in round 10 (losing by 10 points).
With Brownlow Medal contender, ‘Captain Fantastic’ Jordan Dawson, leading the charge, its form line stacks up.
Coach Matthew Nicks, who has failed to lead the Crows to the finals in his previous five years in charge, said his side just needed to “take our opportunities’’ to take the next step.
“Against the top sides, you’ve gotta put them away,’’ he said after the loss to the Hawks.
Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell, relieved to secure the four points, hit the nail on the head.
“They’re going to be right there at the end of the season,’’ he said. “They’re legit.’’
NUMBERS GAME
7
Mitch Georgiades goals for Port Adelaide against Melbourne – the most for the Power since Jay Schulz bagged eight against the Western Bulldogs in round 14, 2014.
3
Margin between Adelaide and Hawthorn in each of their past three clashes in Launceston, with the Hawks winning two (in 2021 and 2025) and the Crows one (2023).
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
“In the end, we just didn’t take our opportunities.’’ – Crows coach Matthew Nicks on the three-point loss to Hawthorn.
“That’s a big number in AFL footy, seven (goals). 7.4 is a really big number now.’’ – Power coach Ken Hinkley on Mitch Georgiades’ career-high 7.4 against Melbourne.
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