Brisbane home prices fall for first time in over two years

Brisbane home prices have peaked, dipping into negative territory for the first time since April 2020, with buyers set to take back a little control – though Queensland regions are still firing.

The PropTrack Home Price Index has logged Brisbane’s first fall since April 2020, though the city is expected to continue to outperform other capitals. Picture: Glenn Hunt/Getty Images.

The PropTrack Home Price Index, released Friday, saw Brisbane notch its first monthly fall since just after the Covid-19 pandemic began. logging -0.09 per cent.

Brisbane is still the strongest capital city in the country annually off its 24 per cent surge in FY22 – and is up by almost half what it was at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic (48 per cent rise).

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said while the drop may be “almost flat”, it was significant for Brisbane in terms of market trends.

“At -0.09 per cent, it’s small. I classify this as basically flat,” he said. “Our view is Brisbane is going to continue to outperform the rest of the market. With a median price that’s still under $700,000 that’s extremely attractive to people from Sydney and Melbourne.”

Brisbane’s median price for all dwellings of $683,000 was down -0.09 per cent monthly, but has climbed 23.75 per cent in the past year. The median price for houses was also down -0.09 monthly, after a 25.23 per cent jump over the year to $799,000. Units in Brisbane were at a median of $459,000, falling -0.05 per cent in the month, having grown 13.73 per cent during FY22.

The capital city slowdown is yet to spread to the rest of Queensland with continued positive gains for both houses and units there seeing the median price for all dwellings hit $546,000, up 0.11 per cent monthly and 22.14 per cent annually.

The Gold Coast was the strongest regional performer, with all dwellings up 26.22 per cent to a median price higher than Brisbane at $802,000. The Sunshine Coast saw a 23.54 per cent rise to $889,000, Cairns was up 15.24 per cent to $431,000 and Townsville jumped 9.8 per cent to $356,000.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan.

MORE: Biggest rate hike on record to put borrowers at RBA’s mercy

Cheapest rents in Qld ranked by suburbs and pricing

Mr Ryan said Brisbane was entering “a generalised slow period” which should give buyers some breathing room.

“It all hinges on interest rates. If RBA goes up by 2 percentage points, we’re expecting falls in all markets. I’d say Brisbane this year would see somewhere between small negatives to flat results. We expect Brisbane to continue to outperform the rest (of the capitals).”

The Index results come as Australia’s biggest bank CBA announced its largest rate hike on record, with a 1.4 percentage point fixed rate jump. RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said the move was extraordinary and would be followed by other banks. “We haven’t seen one-off hikes of this size and scale from CBA in our records,” she said.

Brisbane is entering a “generalised slow period” for price growth, says PropTrack economist Paul Ryan. Picture: Debra Bela.

Ray White Queensland head Jason Andrew said Brisbane still had significant factors in its favour, with its median prices even more affordable than the Gold Coast, let alone compared to other capitals.

“We see Brisbane as flat at worst.,” he said, with its affordability and other factors like interstate migration, international migration yet to come, and the infrastructure program around the Olympics to keep it moving.

“What is probably the most interesting factor to watch at the moment is sellers are moving quickly. They understand that if interest rates continue to rise, we may be in a different spot to where they may have been over the past couple of years.”

He said Ray White saw bidder numbers go to four in Qld, from as high as six last year, with stock levels up by 200 over the month before.

“Where it was a full blown sellers market (before), buyers now have opportunities with sellers happy to meet expectations.”

He was still bullish on Brisbane for the year ahead.

”We’ve seen our growth, I think we will see more of a plateau rather than a decline now.”

FOLLOW SOPHIE FOSTER ON TWITTER

Originally published as Brisbane home prices fall for first time in over two years