Two in four remaining states will decide the US election

Georgia could back a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in almost 30 years after Joe Biden jumped ahead of Donald Trump, but his narrow lead means a recount is ‘likely’.

Joe Biden is crawling to victory, easily beating Donald Trump in the popular vote by 3.5 million votes and just six electoral college votes away from claiming the presidency.

As the Trump team intiaited legal action in several states – with the threat of more to come – Mr Biden took out three states that Hillary Clinton failed to win in 2016: the “rust belt” states of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Arizona.

Just four states remain in play: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

A victory in any one of the four would enable Mr Biden to claim overall victory – although the prospect of legal action means nothing is certain.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania has a history of being one of the slowest states to count votes, largely because of state laws that prevent mail ballots being processed until after polls close.

“We always expected Pennsylvania to be the last of the close states to finish counting,” Dr Ratcliff said. “We’ll know the result in Georgia sooner than Pennsylvania.”

As of 11am Saturday AEDT, 98 per cent of votes had been counted, with Biden on 49.5 per cent and Trump on 49.3 per cent.

Dr Shaun Ratcliff, Lecturer in Political Science, United States Studies Centre. Picture: Supplied

“The mail ballots are only being counted now, and they seem to be trending for Biden pretty heavily,” Dr Ratcliff said.

NEVADA

Biden has doubled his lead in Nevada to approximately 22,000 votes at Friday, local time.

This gives him 1.7 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump.

As of 11am Saturday AEDT, Biden had 49.8 per cent of the votes and Trump had 48.0 per cent with 87 per cent of votes counted.

The slow pace at which Nevada recorded votes has been a factor in delaying the result.

The sand state had more than one million ballots sent in by mail and in person, exceeding the state’s turnout for 2016.

The Trump campaign filed a lawsuit in Nevada on Thursday alleging that votes had been fraudulently cast by dead people and non-residents.

Clark County Registar of Voters Joe Gloria, left, is interrupted by a disgruntled member of the public during a press conference outside Clark County Election Department in North Las Vegas, Nevada. Picture: Ronda Churchill / AFP

Home to glitzy Las Vegas, the state has backed the Democrat candidate for president in every election since 1992, except for 2000 and 2004 when it supported George W Bush.

Its six electoral college votes would give Joe Biden the 270 he needs to claim the presidency, and he is favoured to pick up the state, but Dr Ratcliff said it would be close.

“Biden is the favourite, but (it’s) a pretty small gap. Trump would have to take majority of remaining votes to win,” Dr Ratcliff said.

GEORGIA

It hasn’t backed a Democrat candidate for President since Bill Clinton in 1992, but US electoral analysts said Georgia is on the cusp of becoming a swing state – and may in fact flip for Biden.

With 99 per cent of the vote counted as at 11am Saturday AEDT, Joe Biden has 49.4 per cent of the vote while Donald Trump has 49.3 per cent.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said the margin between Mr Trump and Mr Biden would be within “a few thousand”

“With a margin that small, there will be likely a recount in Georgia,” Mr Raffensperger said.

The near election of Stacey Abrams in the state’s gubnertorial race in 2018 was a pivotal moment, said Elliott Brennan from the US Studies Centre.

Stacey Abrams, former candidate for Georgia governor, has emerged as a powerful figure in Democratic party politics in Georgia. Picture: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

“Abrams came incredibly close to the governorship, and she’s now taken on a role with Get Out The Vote efforts in Georgia, and pushed back against widespread voter suppression,” Dr Brennan said.

The Black Lives Matter movement had also been “an enormous factor” in voter turnout in 2020, he said.

“Once somebody has committed to a protest they’re much more likely to engage with the political process. Huge social movements like (Black Lives Matter) set up a platform for Democrats to really pose a challenge in state like Georgia.”

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina has stuck faithfully with the Republicans in every presidential election since 1992, except for 2008 when it flipped for Barack Obama.

Dr Shaun Ratcliff from the US Studies Centre said North Carolina “has been close the last couple of elections” and it was close in 2020, but he expected Donald Trump would ultimately claim the state and its 15 electoral college votes.

Demonstrators hold signs during a march to "Count Every Vote, Protect Every Person" in Seattle, Washington. Picture: Jason Redmond/AFP

As of 11am Saturday AEDT, 99 per cent of the vote had been counted, with Trump drawing 50.1 per cent of the vote, 77,000 votes ahead of Biden, who was claiming 48.7 per cent.

“North Carolina has got a changing demographic, particularly around Raleigh and Durham – they’ve both quite Democrat,” Dr Ratcliff said.

The state had experienced strong migration in recent years with people moving there from overseas and interstate, particularly for jobs in the tech and finance sectors, he said.

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Originally published as Two in four remaining states will decide the US election