‘Bad news’: Trump’s wild plan for Mexican drug cartels
With thousands of troops ready at the border, Donald Trump has revealed his big plan for Mexican drug cartels.
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He has troops on the border, ready to roll.
He needs a “win” in the face of mounting public criticism. So will US President Donald Trump order an assault on Mexico?
Special Government Employee – and world’s richest man – Elon Musk has urged him to skip the formalities and launch cross-border drone strikes on Mexico’s crime gangs.
White House Executive Associate Director of Enforcement and Removal Operations (border czar) Tom Homan has been given 3000 soldiers and their armoured combat vehicles to “reinforce and expand” operations to “seal the border”.
But Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has politely turned down President Trump’s offer to send them into her country to confront the drug cartels head-on.
“Well, she’s so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk, so you know that’s the reason,” Trump dismissively told US media.
“And I think she’s a lovely woman. The president of Mexico is a lovely woman, but she is so afraid of the cartels that she can’t even think straight.”
But giving troops of a less-than-friendly neighbouring power approval to attack one’s own citizens and infrastructure is rarely a popular option.
The Trump White House has already inflamed relations with Mexico.
It has imposed harsh trade tariffs of 25 per cent in retaliation for cross-border illegal immigration and the flow of the drug fentanyl.
The same penalties have been inflicted on Canada, for the same stated reasons.
“He (Trump) said: How can we help you fight drug trafficking? I propose that the United States military come in and help you,” Mexican President Sheinbaum relayed at the weekend.
“And you know what I said to him? ‘No, President Donald Trump.’ Sovereignty is not for sale. Sovereignty is loved and defended’.”
Troop deployment
“They are bad news,” President Trump said aboard Air Force One. “If Mexico wanted help with the cartels, we would be honoured to go in and do it. I told her that. I would be honoured to go in and do it. The cartels are trying to destroy our country.”
A bold military intervention against the drug cartels has been a central plank of President Trump’s agenda since before he was elected in November.
He signed an executive order immediately upon taking up his second term in February, ordering the crime gangs to be redesignated Foreign Terrorist Organisations.
Categorising them alongside the likes of Islamic State and al-Qaeda gives the president extraordinary powers to bypass US legal and governmental systems to order direct military action.
Like his recent strikes against targets in Yemen, the US President doesn’t need to ask permission from foreign governments to do so.
Trump reiterated his resolve last month by ordering military units to take a more direct role alongside border police to “repel” illegal immigrants and protect “the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.”
His 3000 freshly deployed troops are already in place.
This highly mobile military unit uses 20-tonne Stryker armoured combat vehicles to rapidly deploy into conflict zones.
They carry about 11 soldiers each and are armed with heavy machine guns and grenade launchers.
They’ve previously served in areas including Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
Despite Trump’s criticism, President Sheinbaum has demonstrated a willingness to assist US policing operations. She has bypassed Mexican laws to allow 29 high-ranking cartel leaders to be extradited to the US for prosecution.
But Sheinbaum does not want foreign troops, vehicles or aircraft on her territory.
“We can collaborate. We can work together. But you in your territory and us in ours. We can share information, but we will never accept the presence of the United States Army in our territory,” she said.
Vietnam. Afghanistan. Iraq. Mexico?
“The cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels,” Trump told a hearing of Congress in March.
It isn’t an entirely unpopular idea in Mexico.
Some members of the opposition to President Sheinbaum have welcomed the redesignation of crime gangs as terrorist organisations.
More than 400,000 Mexicans have been killed, and 110,000 are missing after 20 years of a brutal “war on drugs” between the government and cartels.
But any US military action would have to be on a far larger scale than the 3000 troops deployed so far.
It’s estimated Mexico’s organised crime gangs have about 190,000 members.
Further complicating matters is cartel control over entire towns and districts, making them indistinguishable from the local civilian population.’’
“If the US were to deploy special operations forces (SOF) to combat drug cartels in Mexico, direct action (DA) missions would likely be pivotal but fraught with exceptional risks due to the cartels’ firepower, territorial control, and intelligence capabilities,” argues Arizona State University unconventional warfare expert Brandon Schingh.
President Trump and his generals must ensure “clear objectives and a viable exit plan to avoid prolonged conflict and foster lasting regional stability”.
Schingh also warns the White House to expect the unexpected.
“Mexican drug cartels, with their embedded networks in major US cities, pose a serious threat of retaliatory violence,” he writes.
“Their highly sophisticated operations – ranging from smuggling networks and gang alliances to embedded urban cells – grant them the ability to orchestrate targeted attacks and acts of retribution on American soil.”
Clear and present danger
White House National Security Council spokesman James Hewitt insists President Trump has already established the “most secure southwest border in history”.
But it’s not enough.
“Dangerous Foreign Terrorist Organisations continue to threaten our shared security, and the drugs and crime they spread threaten American communities across the country,” he said in a statement.
“The President has been crystal clear that Mexico must do more to combat these gangs and cartels, and the United States stands ready to assist and expand the already close co-operation between our two countries.”
Strangely, Trump’s White House has this month moved to shut down a specialist Department of Justice unit dedicated to fighting organised crime and drug trafficking networks.
The Organised Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF) has had its funding cancelled, meaning it must close its doors by September 30.
Its specialist data fusion centre in Virginia sifts through mountains of financial and surveillance data to zero in on drug cartel kingpins and help build prosecution cases against them.
The Trump Administration has given no reason for the shutdown, but there is little doubt about the need for action.
According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), illegal fentanyl was responsible for more than 74,000 US deaths in 2023.
According to the US Customs and Border Protection agency, about 7200 immigrants were intercepted attempting to cross the southwest border with Mexico in March.
But will military instead of legal action give Trump the overwhelming victory he desires?
Like President Vladimir Putin’s “three-day” invasion of Ukraine, instant success is not guaranteed.
“The cartels’ military-grade weaponry, entrenched influence, and adaptability to irregular warfare make a purely military solution both risky and unsustainable,” warns Schingh. “Moreover, retaliation through escalated violence would undoubtedly increase instability, weakening US security interests.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @jamieseidel.bsky.social
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