Risk of thunderstorm asthma in Victoria with high pollen count, humidity and stormy weather

An expert has warned conditions in Victoria “are ripe for a significant thunderstorm asthma season that could rival the 2016 epidemic”.

Victorians have been warned to brace for a thunderstorm asthma event that could rival the 2016 tragedy, amid a “perfect storm” of conditions and concerns Covid has increased people’s risk.

Ten people died in November 2016, when deadly storms triggered thousands of asthma attacks and overwhelmed Victoria’s healthcare system.

The director of two of the state’s pollen monitoring stations has warned the state is “overdue” for another deadly storm, following the start of grass pollen season this week.

Deakin AIRwatch director Associate Professor Cenk Suphioglu likened the storms to a “biological ticking bomb” because we can never know exactly “when it will strike again”.

But he said Victoria was facing a “perfect storm” of conditions from the start of November, with a high pollen count, humidity and stormy, wet weather predicted.

Stormy weather could contribute to the risk of a thunderstorm asthma event. Picture: David Crosling

“Given they occur every two to three years, conditions are ripe for a significant thunderstorm asthma season that could rival the 2016 epidemic,” he said.

He said a thunderstorm asthma event occurs when a type of storm causes the release, and then spread, of large amounts of pollen, triggering breathing difficulties in many people with pollen allergies.

“We had a really wet winter, so there’s a lot of grass ready to grow, flower and release a lot of pollen,” he said.

There is a lot of pollen ready to be spread after a wet winter.

“We’re going to have lots of humidity, and humidity is what drives thunderstorm cells to become really aggressive.”

The Deakin University environmental allergist said this year’s higher rates of respiratory illness — including Covid and influenza — mean more people could be at risk of a bad reaction compared to 2016.

He said this was because some long Covid symptoms – such as breathlessness – can mirror symptoms of asthma, reducing the airway’s ability to combat an asthma attack.

“There’s that extra layer of concern or caution this time around because of long Covid,” he said.

Conditions in Victoria are ripe for a significant thunderstorm asthma season. Picture: iStock

“Anyone who has had a severe respiratory illness this year is at a higher risk.

“Those who have fever or grass pollen allergy, but they don’t know if they have asthma, they’re going to get caught out.

“If people are immunocompromised or immunosuppressed … that’s another cause of concern.”

He emphasised both Victoria’s emergency warning and response systems were now much better prepared to handle a thunderstorm asthma event but warned the public against complacency — particularly with the hospital system still under strain.

“People tend to get complacent … because it doesn’t happen every year,” he said.

“If people can prepare now and educate themselves as to whether they truly have asthma, they will be better placed to survive a thunderstorm asthma event.”

People are being encouraged to repare now and educate themselves as to whether they truly have asthma.

He urged hayfever sufferers to see their GP about an asthma-management plan, check the VicEmergency’s daily thunderstorm asthma forecast, ensure they have access to preventive and reliever medications and stay indoors.

“In 2016, people who had never before experienced traditional asthma, but were allergic to grass pollen, suffered from thunderstorm asthma,” he said.

“In the 2016 event, some people thought ‘I can’t breathe, I need fresh air’ and they went outside.”

“When the storm is evolving, or unfolding, don’t go outside to fresh air because you’re actually getting more into the thick of danger.

“Go inside, close the doors and windows.”

Originally published as Risk of thunderstorm asthma in Victoria with high pollen count, humidity and stormy weather