Liberal Party poised to reclaim Teal seats in Victoria

Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party are closing in on recapturing Victoria’s two Teal seats, new polling reveals, as voters are driven by cost of living issues.

Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party are within striking distance of recapturing Victoria’s two Teal seats according to new polling, with the cost of living the biggest issue driving voters.

Polling of almost 800 people in Kooyong shows Monique Ryan’s vote has dived and she is just hanging on, while a similar sample in Goldstein reveals Zoe Daniel is way behind Liberal rival Tim Wilson.

Ms Ryan, who this week was forced to apologise after her husband was filmed removing candidate signs for Liberal Amelia Hamer in the inner eastern suburbs seat of Kooyong, is clinging to a narrow 51-49 lead.

The surveys, conducted by leading pollster JWS Research a fortnight ago, found the cost of living was the most important issue nominated by more than 30 per cent of people in both seats.

Both seats turned Teal when Scott Morrison was dumped as prime minister in 2022.

Fourteen per cent of voters in Goldstein, which takes in bayside suburbs such as Brighton and Sandringham, nominated crime as the next most pressing issue, followed by the environment.

In Kooyong healthcare, the environment, and housing were slightly ahead of law and order.

Researchers also found that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has a significant lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred PM in Goldstein, but that he lags behind Mr Albanese in Kooyong.

In both seats Mr Dutton was ahead of Mr Albanese as the person voters thought re-elected Teal MPs should support in the event of a hung parliament — which is when neither party wins 76 seats for a majority and require the support of independents or other MPs to form a minority government.

Monique Ryan is clinging to a narrow 51-49 lead. Picture: Martin Ollman

A new poll shows Zoe Daniel has fallen behind Liberal rival Tim Wilson. Picture: Martin Ollman

Labor currently holds 77 seats and the Coalition have a notional 57 following a redrawing of electoral boundaries since the last election.

Ms Daniel’s primary support has plunged more than 10 per cent since the 2022 federal election to 24 per cent, according to the poll, and trails Mr Wilson 54-46 per cent once preferences are included.

Dr Ryan’s support has held up stronger, but is still 8 per cent lower than three years ago when she rode the Teal wave, partly fuelled by voter hostility towards Scott Morrison.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is on the nose in both seats, with more than half of voters saying they view her unfavourably compared to 23 per cent in Kooyong who view her favourably and 19 per cent in Goldstein.

Founder of JWS Research, John Scales, said the polls asked for voter preferences to help establish a two-party result, and tested the views of a significant number of people.

He said the Victorian government appeared to be a drag on federal Labor’s vote, which was being reflected in policy announcements.

“They’re aware they’ve got problems and the negative attitudes towards the Victorian government is obviously affecting their federal vote,” Mr Scales said.

Amelia Hamer is challenging Monique Ryan in Kooyong. Picture: Alex Coppel

Liberal Tim Wilson is on track to reverse his 2022 result in Goldstein. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

The JWS polling was commissioned by the Australian Energy Producers, and also tested views on the State’s ban on new gas connections and proposed ban on replacement gas hot water and heating systems in existing homes.

In Kooyong 54 per cent opposed the policy, compared to 37 per cent who supported it; results that were almost identical to those found in Goldstein.

Australian Energy Producers, which is a peak industry body for the oil and gas sector, said the polling shows that 52 per cent of voters in Kooyong and 61 per cent of voters in Goldstein thought gas had a “long term” role in the state’s energy mix.

It also shows voters prefer local production of gas than the creation of import terminals.

The AEP chief executive Samantha McCulloch said natural gas had “underpinned the state’s economic growth and energy security for more than half a century” and voters understood its importance in Victoria’s energy mix.

“The results send a strong message to candidates contesting this election that cost-of-living and rising power bills is front of mind for Australians,” Ms McCulloch said.

Originally published as Liberal Party poised to reclaim Teal seats in Victoria