How Melbourne's airport rail link went off track and where it goes from here
It was first proposed in the 1960s, but Melburnians won’t be catching a train to the airport until at least 2033. So how has the project gone off the rails and where is it at now?
Victoria
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Almost 30 years ago, then-prime minister Paul Keating’s plan to get a Tullamarine to CBD rail link built was splashed on the front page of the Herald Sun.
It was the first substantial funding for the project, which had been proposed in the 1960s.
But it wasn’t until the 2010s the project finally gathered steam, with state and federal governments backing the popular new link with funding.
So why has the project veered off the rails, and can it get back on track?
‘Moving Victoria’
In 2014, former premier Denis Napthine thought an airport rail link was his ticket to re-election, and locked it into the State Budget for the first time.
Public transport boffins advised using an above-ground link that used Albion East’s rail corridor via Sunshine, connecting into a future Melbourne Metro Tunnel.
The proposal was for a 25-minute train ride, with the link to be up and running by 2026 at the latest.
The coalition government was criticised for spruiking the project in the lead up to the 2014 state election in its taxpayer-funded “moving Victoria” advertisements, including signs at Southern Cross Station.
The coalition went on to lose the 2014 election to Labor, and incoming premier Daniel Andrews parked the plan, saying his priority was a $15bn Metro Tunnel.
Money back on the table
A rail link to Melbourne Airport remained popular despite being on ice.
In 2018, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull decided to haul it back on track by pledging $5bn towards the link, declaring he wanted it out of the “too hard basket”.
The $5bn pledge was eventually matched by Mr Andrews, and construction was scheduled to begin in 2022, before the state election of that year.
Victoria insisted the route align with the Metro Tunnel and go via Sunshine station, which would be turned into a super transport hub.
Mr Turnbull said that he was “confident” that $10bn would be enough to build the rail line.
Super funds and a super train
In the same year, a global consortium including the airport and its owners, IFM Investors, put forward a private sector bid to build a different airport rail link.
Priced at $15bn, the AirRail Melbourne proposal included twin tunnels between Southern Cross station – also operated by IFM – and Sunshine.
The funding would be split three ways, making use of state and federal commitments and with the consortium kicking in the same amount, before later upping its contribution to $7bn.
The plan, dubbed a “super train” by the proponents, was for a 20-minute trip to the city, with trains running 24/7 and every 10 minutes during peak periods. Tickets would be $20.
While there were discussions about the proposal, it never got off the ground.
A historic agreement
A new decade saw a new prime minister backing the airport rail link – Scott Morrison.
In November, 2020, he signed an “historic agreement” with Premier Daniel Andrews to seal a route for the project – running through the Metro Tunnel to Sunshine Station, and then on to Tullamarine.
They promised Victorians would be able to catch a train directly from the CBD to the airport from 2029, with the project spruiked as something that would help Victoria bounce back from Covid-19.
“The airport link is a nationally significant project and Victorians have been waiting a long time for it to become a reality,” Mr Morrison said.
Veering off the rails
Following the 2022 federal election, Anthony Albanese took the reins as prime minister and watched Melbourne Airport Rail Link take flight.
Three packages of works were out to market and $1bn of early works on the go by 2023, with hundreds of workers on sites.
But a dispute between the State and Melbourne Airport owners over the location of a station at Tullamarine, and compensation for using airport land, was brewing.
Meanwhile, the Albanese Government was reviewing federally-funded infrastructure projects that did not have shovels in the ground, to ensure taxpayers were getting value for money.
As tensions between the airport and state government boiled over, Premier Daniel Andrews pressed pause on the rail link while it was assessed by the Commonwealth.
Insiders said Victoria’s worsening budget position was also to blame, with the state able to delay spending it had earmarked for the Airport Rail Link to improve its budget position.
Call in the mediator
Late in 2023, the Airport Rail Link was given a reprieve by the Albanese Government.
Its review of infrastructure funding found that the project did provide bang for buck and should be progressed.
However, the state – now under the leadership of Jacinta Allan following the resignation of Daniel Andrews as premier – continued to blame Melbourne Airport for delays.
To resolve the standoff, the Albanese Government called in a mediator.
But in the 2024 State Budget, Victoria announced the link would be delayed for four years, allowing it to push billions of dollars in promised funds beyond the forward estimates.
Mr Scales later said the project was viable and necessary, and that if the airport wanted a below-ground station it should do a business case to see if it stacked up.
Where to now?
In July last year, Melbourne Airport backed down on its push for an underground station option.
But compensation claims, said to be as high as $1bn in 2023, remain.
This week at a Herald Sun Future Victoria event, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stumped up an extra $2bn for project works around Sunshine station to get it back on track
Even so, the finish date for the project remains up in the air.
The earliest passengers are likely to be catching trains to Tullamarine is 2033, although federal Infrastructure Minister Catherine King said Victorians hope it is earlier.
“Victorians are a bit sick of the wait.”
So how much money is actually set aside, and how much do they need?
The project was estimated to cost up to $13bn.
The latest $2bn top up from the federal government has taken its total contribution to $7bn, while the state government’s commitment is $5bn.
However, the longer the project takes the more expensive it will become due to a rise in building costs.
Originally published as How Melbourne's airport rail link went off track and where it goes from here
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