Poll shows Vic Libs in election-winning spot, as coup against Pesutto described as ‘dead’

The Victorian Coalition has overtaken Labor for the first time in almost seven years, just days after Liberal Party MPs detailed plans to roll Opposition Leader John Pesutto.

The Victorian Coalition is in an election-winning position, overtaking Labor for the first time in almost seven years.

A new RedBridge poll shows the Coalition is two points ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 51 to 49, its best result since June 2017.

The polling – conducted between September 26 and October 3, a year after Jacinta Allan took over from Dan Andrews as Premier – shows support for Labor has fallen from 35 to 30 since June, seven points lower than its 2022 election result.

Anger over proposed health cuts in June, cost-of-living pressures and the state’s housing crisis have all been blamed for the drop in support.

The statewide poll of 1516 Victorians also comes just days after multiple Liberal Party MPs detailed plans to roll Opposition Leader John Pesutto.

Victorian Opposition leader John Pesutto. Picture: Diego Fedele

Chief among criticisms levelled at Mr Pesutto by his detractors are concerns that he has failed to capitalise on a huge drop in support for Labor.

Critics have also questioned the Coalition’s messaging and overall strategy under Mr ­Pesutto. Over the same period, the ­Coalition’s primary vote has increased two points, from 38 per cent to 40.

The data shows the number of undecided voters has surged over the past 12 months, from 7 per cent in September 2023 to 11.3 per cent, indicating a growing softness in partisan support.

Redbridge co-director and former Liberal Party strategist Tony Barry said the strong ­result should kill any plans to move on Mr Pesutto.

“The last time the opposition had a primary vote this high was just before a group of ­destructive MPs tore down ­Michael O’Brien’s leadership,” he said.

Michael O'Brien. Picture: David Crosling

Mr O’Brien recorded a 41 per cent primary vote in June 2021, months before he faced a successful challenge by Matthew Guy. The same polling showed 63 per cent of Victorians believed Mr Guy would make a better opposition leader compared to 37 per cent who backed Mr O’Brien.

At that time, the Coalition was still trailing Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 48 to 52.

“What followed was a collapse in the Liberal primary vote and another record-breaking election loss,” Mr Barry said.

“The same brainiacs who were behind that leadership coup are now trying to tear down another leader and gift Labor a fourth term.

“To have a change of government you firstly need a mood for change sentiment in the electorate and secondly you need an opposition that has reached minimum expectations in the assessment of voters.

“When voters see an opposition that is in a never-ending cycle of political self-harm, they quickly work out that they aren’t ready for government, no matter how bad the incumbents are.

“In the past decade, whenever the Victorian Liberal Party has come to a fork in the road they have taken the fork. If they can’t unite and focus from here then we may as well all pack up and go home.”

The last time the Victorian Coalition led Labor on a two-party-preferred basis was in June 2017, when it was ahead 53 to 47.

At the time, the then ­Andrews government was in the midst of a war with the fire services while former speaker Telmo Languiller and his deputy Don Nardella were under investigation over ­controversial entitlements claims.

Telmo Languiller. Picture: Nicole Garmston

RedBridge co-director and former Labor Party strategist Kos Samaras said the latest polling showed Victorians ­experiencing severe economic stress were turning on the ­government.

“Failure to address this will likely result in significant electoral losses in Melbourne’s southeastern and western suburbs, potentially mirroring the substantial swings against Labor in the 2022 Victorian state election,” he said.

“In that election, many previously safe Labor seats experienced primary vote swings exceeding 15 per cent.

“In 2026, many of these Labor MPs no longer have fat margins to protect them from what could be an even larger backlash.

“The strategy employed by the Victorian Labor government since 2014, which largely disregarded its base, is no longer tenable.

“The political repercussions of this approach are now ­unavoidable and in 2026, the number of seats that will need defending may comprise half the Labor caucus.”

The Coalition needs to win 17 seats to form government at the 2026 election.

There are currently 20 seats with margins of less than 8 per cent, including 12 seats with margins lower than 5 per cent.

PLOT TO REPLACE PESUTTO STALLS

A plot to replace Opposition Leader John Pesutto has stalled because disgruntled Liberal MPs can’t agree on who should be the potential ­challenger.

Just days after opponents of Mr Pesutto waged war on his leadership, the planned coup has been described as “dead” because of deep divisions among Liberal Party MPs.

They say the biggest obstacle to change is that pockets of supporters have formed behind different potential leaders.

It means a planned motion of no confidence, that was to be moved when MPs meet ahead of parliament on Tuesday, was likely to fail because most MPs wouldn’t vote down Mr Pesutto’s leadership without knowing who might replace him.

But MPs said the situation remained fluid, and there was still “a long way to go until next Tuesday”.

Multiple MPs said they still believed Mr Pesutto had lost the support of a majority of his colleagues.

But, unless the forces pushing to oust him can agree on a replacement candidate, he will remain leader.

However, multiple sources said Mr Pesutto’s detractors ­remained determined to oust him from the top job and would not give up, suggesting months of instability for the party lie ahead.

Some said new polling that put the Coalition in an election-winning position for the first time since 2017 could save Mr Pesutto’s leadership.

Mr Pesutto has reason to smile, as the plot to replace him as leader stalls. Picture: David Geraghty

However, others said it could have the opposite impact and embolden MPs to unite behind a single challenger, with the lure of finally returning to government.

In 1991 Jeff Kennett successfully challenged Alan Brown for the party’s leadership, ­despite Mr Brown holding a comfortable lead over then Labor premier Joan Kirner.

“It’s entirely possible, despite the polls, John could still be rolled, such is the weirdness of the Victorian Liberal Party,” one veteran Liberal said.

“It might actually strengthen their resolve. There’s a large proportion of that group that just don’t want him to win.”

In 2021 some Liberals spent months plotting to oust ­Michael O’Brien from the leadership despite the ­Coalition recording a 41 per cent primary vote in the polls – a feat not matched since.

It took two challenges to finally succeed.

Mr Pesutto has faced more than 18 months of leadership speculation since he first moved to expel Moira Deeming from his party room in March 2023.

Closing arguments in a defamation case brought by Mrs Deeming are expected later this month, with a judgment to follow.

Critics say his position is untenable with the case hanging over the party’s head, and say he will be forced to resign if he loses the case.

Colleagues said Mr Pesutto had been on a “charm offensive” this week.

The Opposition Leader on Wednesday said he had no intention of a shadow cabinet shake-up to punish MPs who had testified against him in court, or plotted to overthrow him.

“Reprisals are not in my ­nature,” he said.

“My job as Opposition Leader and as an alternative premier is to make the case for change … that’s what we’re focused on.”

“There is widespread recognition that we have been improving our standing right across the Victorian population.

“I welcome the feedback and contributions I get from my colleagues. I’m always welcoming feedback from my colleagues.”

Originally published as Poll shows Vic Libs in election-winning spot, as coup against Pesutto described as ‘dead’