La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode weather events to hit North Queensland

North Queenslanders are being warned to brace for much higher than average chances of flooding thanks to a triple whammy of weather phenomena.

North Queenslanders are being warned to prepare for much higher than average chances of flooding in the coming months thanks to a triple whammy of weather phenomena.

“Our monthly outlooks for October, November and December are all suggesting quite a high chance of exceeding median rainfall, so wetter than average conditions,” Bureau of Meteorology Senior Meteorologist Kimba Wong said on Tuesday.

“And chances of extremely wet conditions actually looks to be on the cards as well, so our climate outlook suggests that we may have quite a high chance of exceeding or seeing rainfall in the top fifth (20 per cent) of historical records.”

Flooding in Townsville in 2019. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

Ms Wong said that in addition to the projected triple La Niña, two other weather phenomena would contribute to expected rainfall increases.

She said a negative Indian Ocean Dipole would contribute to an increase in “winter-spring rainfall for much of the State”, while the Southern Annular Mode was also tracking for a “wetter outlook”.

“Basically all three of our main climate drivers that are in play at the moment are resulting in a wetter influence for the coming months.”

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Average median monthly rainfall totals for Townsville, Charters Towers and Ayr from October to December are between 100mm to 200mm with Hinchinbrook recording between 200mm and 300mm per month over the same period.

Ms Wong said the increased rainfall estimates represented “a heightened risk of flooding”.

“Flooding is normal for various parts of Queensland anyway but the landscape is already quite wet in many locations as we’ve had quite a bit of winter rainfall, which is typically our period to dry-out.”

She said hotter than average temperatures were also projected over the next three months.

Flooding from a freak deluge in Ingham in January 2021. Picture: Cameron Bates

The Brisbane-based meteorologist said that shorter-term, the Townsville Dome was expected to shield the North Queensland capital as thunderstorm activity moved through the region on Wednesday.

She said Hinchinbrook and Charters Towers could see rainfall in the afternoon and evening, with totals in excess of 20 millimetres in some rainfall gauges.

“You might be able to see a thunderstorm from Townsville and maybe in the late evening some of the remnant rainfall might start to trickle across toward the coast but I think in terms of actually seeing a storm in town (on Wednesday), it’s not so likely,” she said, adding the conditions would persist on Thursday.

“It’s a classic Townsville Dome set-up.”

Ms Wong said conditions for Townsville over the weekend were expected to be largely fine.

Originally published as La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode weather events to hit North Queensland