Dr Gruen: Tasmania’s AFL team shouldn’t come at any cost

FREE: After reviewing the Macquarie Point stadium proposal in detail, the rushed process appears designed to justify decisions already made, independent economist Nicholas Gruen writes.

Tasmania deserves an AFL team but not at any cost, Dr Gruen writes. Picture: Linda Higginson / Tasmania Football Club

Tasmania deserves an AFL team at the right cost – but not at any cost.

Reviewing the Macquarie Point stadium proposal in detail, I found understated costs and overstated benefits leaving Tasmanians at risk of paying too much for too little.

The planned stadium will cost over $1 billion. And this doesn’t count the opportunity cost of the Macquarie Point site itself – prime waterfront land worth hundreds of millions that could be used for other purposes. Taking that and other factors into account, the project will generate only 44 cents of benefit for every dollar of cost.

On a net basis, the cost is around $1,380 for every Tasmanian. For a project of this magnitude, you’d expect careful analysis, extensive community consultation, and due consideration of alternatives. But that hasn’t happened.

Instead, we’ve seen a rushed process that appears designed to justify decisions already made. The site selection analysis recommending Macquarie Point was hasty and incomplete. Community consultation has been lacklustre.

Macquarie Point development underway. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Perhaps most concerningly, the Government is approaching the financing of the project with an overriding concern of maintaining the fiction that it can deliver the stadium without tipping in more than $375 million. On my analysis that figure is more accurately put at $700 million.

The impact on the Hobart Cenotaph is just one example of what happens when proper process is sidelined. In our survey of urban design professionals, the majority expressed serious concerns about how the stadium would affect views of and from this sacred site. The RSL’s concerns have been largely dismissed.

But it’s not too late to correct course.

The remarkable story of the Jack Jumpers shows what’s possible when Tasmania does major sporting projects well. They’ve united the community and become a source of state pride. With over 200,000 introductory members already signed up, the Tasmanian Devils could do the same for AFL on a much larger scale. But only if Tasmania takes the time to get the foundations right.

JackJumpers have been a remarkable story of what’s possible for elite sports teams in Tasmania. Picture: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

That means returning to the original timeline proposed in Tasmania’s 2019 AFL Taskforce report. Playing the first 5-7 seasons at existing grounds while properly planning for a stadium that best serves the state’s needs.

The AFL’s insistence on specific conditions – the Macquarie Point site, the stadium roof, and completion by 2028 – goes well beyond what’s reasonable for ensuring team viability. These requirements are driving up costs and risks while limiting the ability to find better solutions. The current trajectory will divide the community and is set to burden Tasmania’s budget for a generation.

Consider Perth’s Optus Stadium. They spent years consulting with the community and planning properly. The result is a world-class facility that Western Australians are proud of. Tasmania can do the same.

Optus Stadium, Perth. Picture: Supplied

I recommend that government immediately take the following steps:

• First, negotiate with the AFL for a more realistic timeline. The current rushed schedule is driving up costs and preventing proper consideration of alternatives that could work better for Tasmania.
• Second, develop a proper plan for how the stadium fits into Greater Hobart’s future. This isn’t just about one precinct – it’s about transport, housing, tourism and the overall urban environment.
• Third, only use private sector involvement where it makes financial sense – not to disguise the true costs to the Tasmanian public. And introduce genuine competition by considering alternative stadium proposals alongside Macquarie Point. This includes evaluating options like the Mac Point 2.0 proposal that might deliver better outcomes at lower cost.

None of this means saying no to a stadium or an AFL team. But it does mean being smart about how both are delivered. Tasmania faces significant social and economic challenges – the state simply can’t afford to get a project this expensive wrong.

Looking at the intense public debate over this project, I’m reminded that major developments have often divided Tasmania unnecessarily. There is no reason that the stadium should go the same way. Indeed, this is an opportunity to show how the Government can deliver major projects through genuine consultation and careful planning. To create something that truly unites the community rather than divides it.

Stadium isn’t a matter of rushing ahead with a flawed plan or giving up on Tasmania’s AFL dream, Gruen says. Picture: Supplied

The choice isn’t between rushing ahead with a flawed plan or giving up on Tasmania’s AFL dream. It’s between doing this right or doing it wrong. For the sake of securing Tasmania’s future and Australia’s sporting destiny, I recommend taking the time to get it right.

• Dr Nicholas Gruen is an independent economist who was commissioned by the Tasmanian Government to conduct an independent review of the Macquarie Point Stadium proposal. His report can be found here: https://tinyurl.com/GruenReport

Originally published as Dr Gruen: Tasmania’s AFL team shouldn’t come at any cost