Dunstan by-election: crucial midterm test for Peter Malinauskas and David Speirs

Both Premier Peter Malinauskas and his rival, David Speirs, have plenty on the line in Saturday’s Dunstan by-election, Paul Starick writes.

A crucial midterm test for both Premier Peter Malinauskas and his Liberal rival David Speirs has been created by Saturday’s Dunstan by-election.

Called to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall in the state’s most marginal seat, the by-election result is expected to be tight and uncertain for a few days.

Mr Malinauskas, who deposed Mr Marshall’s government at a state election in March, 2022, will be watching carefully to assess the extent of voter blowback at his thus-far unmet promise to fix ambulance ramping.

The Liberals have declared the Dunstan poll a referendum on ramping – most particularly Mr Malinauskas’s failure, thus far, on the core promise that propelled him to power.

Premier Peter Malinauskas with ALP Dunstan candidate Cressida O’Hanlon at the High Street Cafe in Kensington on March 19. Picture: Matt Loxton

The Premier also will be closely studying the degree of voter anger directed at his government over the cost-of-living crisis enveloping most of the globe.

As he plainly told a Whyalla public forum on February, 26 politicians frequently vow to try to reduce living costs but “nine times out of ten it’s all bullshit”.

On the other side, Mr Speirs has faced internal rumblings about his leadership, which Mr Malinauskas has sought to exploit in his final pitch to voters.

Liberal factional division was laid bare at last Saturday’s Senate preselection, at which former federal cabinet minister Anne Ruston was deposed from top spot on the ticket by firebrand conservative rival Alex Antic.

Pressure on Mr Speirs’ leadership will intensify if Dunstan is lost to Labor, although he has no clear rival with a solid support base.

In a bitter campaign in which the major parties have repeatedly questioned the credibility of one another’s candidates, the Liberals have hammered the twin themes of ambulance ramping and cost-of-living.

Opposition Leader David Speirs and Liberal Dunstan candidate Anna Finizio on March 1. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Morgan Sette

This was an obvious strategy, given the Malinauskas government has been injecting an extra $4.4bn in operating funding into the health system, yet ambulance ramping has worsened.

The 3.5 per cent swing to the Liberals in the March 2 Dunkley by-election shows the federal electoral potency of voters seeking retribution for cost-of-living pain.

There is an argument, though, that ambulance ramping has diminished as an issue, particularly in the inner eastern Adelaide seat of Dunstan, where many affluent voters’ private health insurance would prevent them straying anywhere near an overloaded public hospital.

In early 2022, Covid-19 was sweeping the state for the first time.

Malinauskas-led Labor skilfully exploited concerns that an ambulance would not get people to hospital on time if they were dying of Covid.

Support for the Greens and distribution of these preferences will play a vital role in shaping the Dunstan result.

The Greens vote has surged in Adelaide’s inner east and south in recent years, as they attract affluent voters concerned about climate change. At the 2022 Bragg by-election to replace former Liberal deputy premier Vickie Chapman, the Greens gathered more than 20 per cent of the primary vote in Glen Osmond’s booth, 19 per cent in Glenunga, 16.9 per cent in Rose Park, 18.1 per cent in Burnside and 17.3 per cent in Tusmore.

It’s reasonable to expect similar levels of support on Saturday, even if the Greens obviously hope for an even stronger showing.

Opposition Leader David Speirs and Liberal health spokeswoman Ashton Hurn. Picture Dean Martin

Another high proportion of pre-poll and postal votes, which both major parties expect will favour the Liberals, mean a result will not be known for some time.

There is every reason for both sides to be confident of victory. The tide turned against the Liberals in 2022, when an incumbent premier’s personal vote probably was the critical factor that kept the seat.

Neither major party candidate has a high profile. Nor does Mr Speirs.

Mr Malinauskas remains a popular leader, even among some influential Liberal supporters. If this can translate into votes in Dunstan, Labor can pull off an epic win. But hard-hit voters might just want to punish Labor for living costs. In a tight race, my gut says Labor but my head says a narrow Liberal win.

Originally published as Dunstan by-election: crucial midterm test for Peter Malinauskas and David Speirs