The QLD seats where Pauline Hanson will be kingmaker

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation stands to become a kingmaker in a number of tightly contested Queensland electorates, with the party expected to gain a high enough vote to sway the outcome. See where her politics will have the biggest influence.

The fate of crucial Queensland seats will be determined by One Nation preferences, with Senator Pauline Hanson expected to reveal her decision next week.

Longman is being keenly contested and One Nation has a high enough vote in the electorate to sway the outcome, while Leichhardt could also come down to the wire.

Senator Hanson declared on Thursday that the party will vote against some moderate Liberal MPs in the southern states, but will work with the National party “to negate any losses”.

But it is understood that there will be different arrangements in Queensland and there continued discussions about local decisions.

Senator Pauline Hanson campaigning this week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

Senator Hanson is up for re-election herself, and while she is expected to receive enough of a quota to be re-elected, LNP preferences would all but guarantee it.

It is understood there is likely to be at least a preference swap with Nationals-aligned LNP MPs and candidates.

Senator Hanson said her party would preference against several moderate Liberal MPs, including Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney who are under pressure from Teal independents.

“Scott Morrison has surrendered independent Australian climate policy to these left-leaning Liberals, who are obviously in the wrong party,” she said.

But she said she would preference the Coalition in seats the Nationals were contesting – such as the close contest in the Labor-held seat of Hunter.

“I owe the Labor Party and the Greens nothing. But I’m not the lacky for the Liberal party either,” she told Sky News.

“I think we are all in broad agreement that a Labor-Green government would be a disaster for Australia.”

With One Nation preferences, about two-thirds of the party’s votes are likely to flow through to the LNP, while it could be closer to a 50-50 split with Labor without them.

One Nation received more than 13 per cent of primary votes in Longman in 2019, with those votes crucial as both major parties are polling less than 40 per cent.

In Leichhardt One Nation’s primary was 6 per cent, but the seat is expected to be a close contest.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Thursday indicated there would be more information on One Nation preferences to come “particularly in relation to Queensland”.

“There’s different arrangements in different states and territories … but you know what, that’s just all politics,” Mr Morrison said.

Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare said the party had held no negotiations with One Nation at all.

“We have a longstanding principle of preferencing One Nation last and that has not changed,” he said.

“What One Nation does in terms of who they preference, frankly that is just a matter for them.”

Originally published as The QLD seats where Pauline Hanson will be kingmaker