Political oracle Paul Tully makes boldest election prediction yet revealing the MPs expected to go

A 49-year Labor loyalist who has successfully predicted all the election winners and losers since Joh Bjelke-Petersen has looked into the crystal ball and given his forecast. VOTE IN OUR POLL

Don Brown, Ali King and Bart Mellish have all been predicted to lose their seats by veteran Labor councillor Paul Tully.

Queensland’s most reliable political oracle says Labor will lose 18 seats in tomorrow’s state election leaving the LNP in a comfortable position to govern in its own right with 53 seats.

Veteran Labor councillor Paul Tully reckons the Greens will fail to gain any extra seats, with Katter’s Australia Party winning four and One Nation none.

On Tully’s calculations, Labor’s high-profile Minister for Works, Housing and Local Government Meaghan Scanlon will lose her seat to former TV journalist, Biance Stone, in the crucial Gold Coast seat of Gaven.

Tully says there will be no Labor wipe-out in Brisbane. However he expects the LNP to make gains in outer-Brisbane regions where cost of living pressures have hurt working families.

“The ALP is likely to hold most of its seats across Brisbane, Ipswich and Logan, none south of Logan, just a handful of seats north of Moreton Bay to Cairns and none west of the Great Dividing Range, except for possibly Cook in the far north,” he said.

Tully is a devoted psephologist and a 49-year Labor loyalist who has successfully predicted all the election winners and losers since the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era.

In 1974 he controversially predicted Labor would be reduced to 11 seats; and it was.

He was howled down in 2012 when he predicted Labor would win just seven out of 89 seats at the state election. Again he was right.

In 2015, he accurately predicted that Labor would win and be forced into a minority government.

For this year’s poll he predicts the LNP will win 53 seats, ALP 33, Katter’s Australian Party 4, The Greens 2, independent 1, One Nation 0.

“This election is likely to be typical of most current state and federal elections in Australia where governments are voted out of office after three or four terms,’’ Tully said.

“I predict that this election will see a political tsunami heading north from Brisbane along the east coast of Queensland.’’

Ipswich Councillor Paul Tully has given his election prediction.

But there were wildcards still in play.

He thinks pre-polling and the postal voting will favour the LNP because hundreds of thousands of Queenslanders casting their votes before the abortion debate hijacked the LNP campaign.

If Tully is right, a list of prominent Labor MPs will be shown the door.

Decorated war veteran Dean Clements may take Pine Rivers for the LNP by ousting Nikki Boyd, the Labor Minister for Fire and Disaster Recovery and Corrective Services, who has substantial unions backing.

Tully said preference flows would determine outcomes in tightly contested seats.

“It could be a toss of a coin,” he said.

Transport Minister Bart Mellish would seem to be in danger in Aspley where he faces a formidable challenger in Amanda Cooper, a Brisbane City Council veteran who chaired the city’s infrastructure committee.

Labor’s Brittany Lauga was unlikely to hold Keppel. She faces a two-pronged attack from Nigel Hutton for the LNP and One Nation’s James Ashby. Ashby has polled well early, but expect Hutton to grab a win on One Nation preferences.

Tully’s count suggests Labor’s Jessica Pugh will hold Mt Ommaney in Brisbane with Cabinet ministers Shannon Fentiman (Waterford) and Mick de Brenni (Springwood) safe in their seats.

However, Premier Steven Miles acolyte Ali King could be a shock casualty for Labor in Pumicestone, going down to the LNP’s Ariana Doolan, 22.

Ali King MP. Picture: Liam Kidston

Expect controversial ALP character Don Brown to lose the Redland Bay seat of Capalaba. He is likely to be toppled by the LNP’s Russell Field, a law-and-order campaigner whose son was killed by an out-of-control car in 2021.

Tully sticks to the maths in deciding likely winners and losers.

“I have studied the parties’ policies, the campaign’s high points and low points, the polls and the online betting odds, as well as receiving significant personal feedback from mayors, councillors and community leaders across Queensland,’’ he said.

“It’s a difficult call this year given the final result in many seats will depend on the flow of preferences from - and to - the Katter’s Australian Party, the Greens, One Nation and even the ALP in those seats where it runs third behind other candidates.

“On Saturday night, I predict a change of government with the result of the election clear by 8pm.’’

Originally published as Political oracle Paul Tully makes boldest election prediction yet revealing the MPs expected to go