Mulgrave 10-candidate ballot likely still an LNP-ALP race Dr Paul Williams says

A surprise “dark horse” has emerged among the 10 candidates vying for the seat of Mulgrave with preferences almost certain to decide the final winner, a political commentator says.

Arun Singh Mann

3 min read

October 24, 2024 - 6:00AM

The Cairns Post

Sky News/The Courier Mail People’s Forum

Electorates

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A surprise “dark horse” has emerged among the 10 candidates vying for the seat of Mulgrave with preferences almost certain to decide the final winner, a political commentator says.

The southern Cairns electorate has been dominated by Labor since 1989, with the Nationals lasting one term from 1995, succeeded by One Nation in 1998 and returning to Labor’s Warren Pitt later that year through a by-election.

Griffith University associate professor Dr Paul Williams earlier this week noted “the swing was on against Labor,” declaring Mulgrave’s neighbouring seats of Cairns and Barron River “gone”.

Member for Mulgrave Curtis Pitt is retiring from the safe ALP seat at the upcoming Queensland state election, after serving 15 years with the Labor party. Picture: Brendan Radke.

When former speaker of the Queensland Parliament Curtis Pitt announced his retirement on August 22, there were only three other Mulgrave challengers brave enough to take on the man with a 12.2 per cent margin.

Since, the ballot has erupted to 10 candidates – the highest in Queensland this election – followed by the Premier’s seat of Marrumba where voters will number nine boxes.

Despite presenting the state’s longest ballot, Dr Williams predicted it would still be a two-horse race in Mulgrave between the major parties, stating “there’s a big gap between the majors and minors”.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli. Dr Paul Williams expects the seat of the Mulgrave to remain a race between the major parties. Picture: NewsWire / John Gass

He said while he expected Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation to at-best double their primary votes to about 20 and 12 per cent, respectively, it still left a share of about 65 per cent for ALP and the LNP.

“So worst-case scenario, each of the majors will end on about 30 per cent. They will finish first and second.”

He said despite the recommendations on KAP, One Nation and Family First how to vote cards, those voters would likely be preferencing the LNP.

During an impromptu survey at the Edmonton pre-polling booth on Friday, candidates busking voters were quietly asked: “If not yourself, who seems to be receiving the most voter engagement?”

The responses favoured late entrant, and independent candidate David Raymond with major and minor party candidates giving the Gorondvale resident, who featured highly on most how to vote cards, the nod.

Former police officer David Raymond was tipped by his opponents as a quiet front runner for Mulgrave. Picture: Brendan Radke

“If every other non major party candidate is preferencing this guy, it’s a possibility, but a remote one,” Dr Williams said of the chances of Mulgrave turning independent.

“Regional seats outside capital cities are more prone to turn independent because the value of the candidate is more important than the value of the party.

Griffith University’s senior lecturer in politics and journalism Dr Paul Williams

“But I’ve been asked this question many times this election – ‘Are we going to see a third party decimation of the majors the way we saw in the 2022 federal election’ – no we’re not.

“Yes a lot of those blue collar ‘Labourites’ in Cairns, Townsville, Maryborough, Gladstone, Mackay will be pushed towards the populous right, bypassing the LNP all together, but potentially preferencing the LNP back.”

‘Talk with us’: Undecided Mulgrave voters want candidate presence

Spending a Sunday afternoon at Gordonvale’s Norman Park, long-term local resident Debbie Thompson had little idea of who was who in Mulgrave’s 10-card candidacy stack.

She was watching her grandchildren in the playground, while her extended family and friends, some of who were homeless, cooked up a barbecue nearby.

Debbie Thompson of Gordonvale, pictured with her grandchildren Korbin Dodd, 7, Tekara Brown, 11, Shaylah Dodd, 9, and Uriah Tolson, 10, at Norman Park. Picture: Brendan Radke

“We don’t know really know who we’d vote for,” Ms Thompson said.

“They (the candidates) don’t come here and talk to us, so I don’t know what to think.”

Among those tucking into the snags was Barachias Royee, who offered up some advice.

“We want them to come here, sit with us, talk with us like you’re doing,” he said.

Gabriel Weatherall, Barachias Royee and Dwain Stewart, pictured at Norman Park, are disillusioned with politics, and say that the current crop of politicians don't listen or address the issues of the common people. Picture: Brendan Radke

“We need housing, go look down (Mill St),” Mr Royee said pointing in the direction of footpath leading to Greenpatch Campground.

“You’ll see all along there why we need housing.”