Editorial: Qld set to choose the least worst option

The Queensland election could produce a “loveless landslide”, such as we saw in the UK this year, writes the editor.

Premier Steven Miles (left) and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli at Wednesday’s second debate. Picture: Liam Kidston.

It is clear now – if it was not before – that for Labor, this campaign is now about protecting the careers of its next generation of leaders.

Queensland is still paying the price of the 2012 wipe-out of Labor’s parliamentary ranks, and not so much because it robbed the party of many future leaders. Far more critically, the new mob that then came in three years later had never experienced opposition, and so had not learnt the lessons that slog teaches future ministers about both humility and hard work – and that hurt Labor in the long run.

This, at least, will not be an issue at this election, if our exit poll this week of 1000 people who had just cast their pre-poll ballots at voting locations across 10 key seats turns out to be an accurate predictor of the outcome next Saturday.

The exit poll suggested the LNP is on track for a victory similar to that it enjoyed in 2012, with 48.2 per cent of those surveyed saying they had just cast their ballot for the opposition – compared with just 30 per cent for the incumbent Labor Party.

At the 2012 election, the LNP won 49.7 per cent of the primary vote, the Labor Party just 26.7 per cent. That vote resulted in a 60-40 two-party-preferred figure, and saw Labor with just seven seats in the 89-seat Parliament that was totally dominated by a 78-strong LNP party room.

It is hard to imagine now, but another characteristic of the 2012 campaign was genuine affection for the leader of the LNP Campbell Newman, who was – uniquely – elected party leader from outside the parliament. In the last YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail before that election, 50 per cent of voters preferred Mr Newman over the incumbent premier Anna Bligh.

The latest YouGov poll this time around, in July, had Opposition Leader David Crisafulli leading current Premier Steven Miles on that measure by 40-29.

It will be interesting to see where the sizeable uncommitted group of 31 per cent of respondents have ended up landing now we are two-thirds into the campaign itself.

It would not be a massive shock if the enthusiasm for both leaders remains relatively soft. That is because the general view is that this election is likely one where the government loses because of its poor record, rather than one where the opposition wins because of enthusiasm for its leaders or what it is offering in terms of policy.

We could end up witnessing a “loveless landslide”, such as we saw in the UK this year. Voting in that election was not compulsory, and so fewer than two-thirds of people actually did so – and of those that did, most did so unenthusiastically.

Voting is of course compulsory in Queensland – and so the local equivalent could be that a seriously unenthusiastic electorate swings hard against the government, but only because their determination to vote out the incumbent is a stronger feeling than the apathy they feel towards the alternative.

And the parties are certainly not helping themselves when it comes to winning over voters. Yesterday, both leaders said they would be continuing the scare campaigns that have been at the heart of this battle – for the LNP, its warnings of a “patient tax” under Labor; and for Labor, its warnings of regressive abortion laws, health privatisation and cuts to the public service.

Any hopes held for a campaign built around a future vision were clearly in vain. The LNP will stick to its small-target strategy because it knows it is so far ahead, thanks to that irresistible mood for change. Labor will meanwhile stick to its Hail-Mary plan of announcing ever more extravagant hand-outs it will likely never have to pay for.

It is all a tragic state of affairs. But as the exit poll showed, this election is all but over – so both strategies actually make sense.

TOP COP HAS JOB TO DO

Queensland Police Commissioner Steve Gollschewski is right to say he will change officer training material that lumps journalists in with gang members, criminals and religious extremists as people officers should avoid associating with.

But the damage has been done. As Mr Gollschewski has conceded, this training material has been secretly in place for years – and so many police officers have been exposed to it, and would therefore think it inappropriate to talk to professional journalists.

And as we pointed out here last Friday, the Fitzgerald Inquiry into 1980s corruption recommended that there be no “unnecessary obligations of secrecy on police officers”. Obviously, telling them in training material that they should avoid relationships with anyone in the news media fails that test.

Mr Gollschewski therefore now has an obligation to do much more than just changing the material. He must remind every single officer of the policy that he revealed on radio, “encourages the Queensland Police to have a really good relationship with journalists and the media, because at the end of the day we can’t do our job without the media”.

Corruption risks flourish in the darkness. The antidote is always the sunlight of an open and honest approach to the work that is being done. Mr Gollschewski has a big task ahead to undo this mess.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here

Originally published as Editorial: Qld set to choose the least worst option