Queensland election 2017: Top 25 seats to watch
THESE are the 25 seats that will decide who gets to govern Queensland for the next three years — and two former premiers have weighed in.
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THESE are the 25 seats that will decide who gets to govern Queensland for the next three years.
THE BEST WAY TO FOLLOW QUEENSLAND ELECTION RESULTS
Thousands will vote in brand new constituencies today, following a massive overhaul of boundaries and the creation of four extra seats in the now 93-seat Parliament.
The new boundaries, a new voting system and the resurgence of One Nation will make today’s election one of the most difficult to call in recent history.
One Nation is set to play kingmaker in multiple seats across the state and could pick up at least two to four of its own. The resurgent party has been polling well in seats like Thuringowa, where its primary vote is sitting at almost 23 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, it is sitting neck and neck with Labor at 50 per cent.
In Brisbane, the changes have made two key LNP seats – Mansfield and Mount Ommaney – notionally Labor.
In South Brisbane, Deputy Premier Jackie Trad is fighting to keep her seat against a surging Greens vote.
That vote will also likely impact on the redistributed LNP seat of Maiwar, where former Newman government minister Scott Emerson is battling to win a fourth term.
The Courier-Mail Galaxy poll shows Labor and the LNP have ended the campaign with the same two-party-preferred vote they started it with.
Labor is sitting at 52 per cent to the LNP’s 48 per cent.
Both need to win at least 47 seats to govern in their own right.
Here, our political team and former premiers Peter Beattie and Campbell Newman give their verdicts on seats that will decide this poll.
1. GAVEN
Sid Cramp – LNP *
Meaghan Scanlon (ALP)
Sally Spain (The Greens)
OUR VERDICT: Too close to call
PETER BEATTIE: Labor can win
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP retains
2. BONNEY (NEW SEAT)
Sam O’Connor (LNP)
Ron Nightingale (Ind)
Rowan Holzberger (ALP)
Amin Javanmard (The Greens)
Robert Buegge – (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: Too close to call
PETER BEATTIE: Labor can win
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP will win
3. LOGAN
Gloria Vicario (LNP)
Liam Jenkinson (The Greens)
Scott Bannan (PHON)
Danielle Cox – (Ind)
Linus Power (ALP) *
Daniel Murphy (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: Labor retains
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains on preferences
CAMBELL NEWMAN: Labor retains narrowly
4. MANSFIELD
Ian Walker (LNP)*
Barbara Bell (The Greens)
Corrine McMillan (ALP)
Neil Symes (PHON)
OUR VERDICT: Labor gain
PETER BEATTIE: Labor gain
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor gain
5. SOUTH BRISBANE
Karel Boele (Ind)
Jackie Trad (ALP) *
Cameron Murray (Ind)
Amy MacMahon (The Greens)
Karagh-Mae Kelly (Ind)
Simon Quinn (LNP)
Frank Jordan (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: Labor retains
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor retains
6. MOUNT OMMANEY
Jenny Mulkearns (The Greens)
Tarnya Smith (LNP) *
Ian Eugarde (PHON)
Jess Pugh (ALP)
OUR VERDICT: Labor gain
PETER BEATTIE: Labor gain. These are the sorts of seats where people won’t want to see One Nation deals
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor gain
7. MAIWAR
Michael Berkman (The Greens)
Anita Diamond (Ind)
Ali King (ALP)
Scott Emerson (LNP)*
OUR VERDICT: LNP retains
PETER BEATTIE: LNP retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: ALP gain but a knife-edge contest
8. LOCKYER
Jim McDonald (LNP) *
Jim Savage (PHON)
Ian Simons (The Greens)
Nicole Lincoln (ALP)
Tony Parr (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: LNP retains
PETER BEATTIE: LNP retains after tough fight with One Nation
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP retains
9. FERNY GROVE
Elizabeth World (The Greens)
Nick Elston (LNP)
Mark Furner (ALP) *
Lisa Foo (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: Labor retains
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor retains
10. EVERTON
Tim Mander (LNP) *
Bridget Clinch (The Greens)
David Greene (ALP)
OUR VERDICT: LNP retains
PETER BEATTIE: LNP retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP retains
11. ASPLEY
Bart Mellish (ALP)
James Hansen (The Greens)
Steve Ross (Ind)
Neil Skilbeck (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No Tolls)
Shaun Byrne (PHON)
Tracy Davis – LNP *
Zachary King – (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: Labor gain
PETER BEATTIE: LNP retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP retains
12. PUMICESTONE
Michael Hoogwaerts (ALP)
Simone Wilson (LNP)
Rick Williams (Ind) *
Jason Burgess (Ind)
Tony Longland (The Greens)
Greg Fahey (PHON)
OUR VERDICT: LNP gain
PETER BEATTIE: Labor gain but a tough call
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP gain
13. GLASS HOUSE
Tracey Bell-Henselin (PHON)
Andrew Powell (LNP) *
Sue Mureau (Ind)
Brent Hampstead (ALP)
Sue Weber (The Greens)
OUR VERDICT: Possible Labor gain but close call
PETER BEATTIE: One of the most marginal LNP seats. Possible gain for Labor.
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: ALP gain
14. BUDERIM
Brent Mickelberg (LNP)
Ken Mackenzie (ALP)
Steven Dickson (PHON) *
Tracy Burton (The Greens)
OUR VERDICT: LNP win
PETER BEATTIE: LNP win
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP will reclaim from One Nation
15. MARYBOROUGH
Roger Currie (Ind)
Richard Kingston (LNP)
James Hansen (PHON)
Bruce Saunders (ALP) *
Craig Armstrong (The Greens)
OUR VERDICT: Possible One Nation win
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains as one of the surprises
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: One Nation win
16. BUNDABERG
Alan Corbett (Ind)
Richard William Smith (Ind)
Richard Glass (Ind)
Marianne Buchanan (The Greens)
Leanne Donaldson (ALP) *
David Batt (LNP)
Jane Truscott (PHON)
OUR VERDICT: LNP gain
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains but hard to call
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP gain
17. KEPPEL
Matt Loth (PHON)
Brittany Lauga (ALP) *
Clancy Mullbrick (The Greens)
Peter Blundell (LNP)
OUR VERDICT: Labor retains
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP gain
18. MIRANI
Kerry Latter (LNP)
Stephen Andrew (PHON)
Jim Pearce (ALP) *
Christine Carlisle (The Greens)
OUR VERDICT: Too close to call
PETER BEATTIE: Labor retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP gain
19. BURDEKIN
Dale Last (LNP) *
Sam Cox (ON)
Mathew Bing (Greens)
Michael Brunker (ALP)
OUR VERDICT: LNP retains
PETER BEATTIE: Possible Labor gain on One Nation preferences
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP retains
20. WHITSUNDAY
Noel Skippen (PHON)
Jason Costigan (LNP) *
Imogen Lindenberg (The Greens)
Dan van Blarcom (Ind)
Jenny Whitney (KAP)
Bronwyn Taha (ALP)
OUR VERDICT: Labor gain
PETER BEATTIE: 50/50 between Labor and One Nation
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor gain
21. THURINGOWA
Mike Rubenach (The Greens)
Aaron Harper (ALP) *
Nick Martinez (LNP)
Stephen Lane (Ind)
Mark Thornton (PHON)
Terry Fox (KAP)
OUR VERDICT: One Nation win
PETER BEATTIE: Too close to call
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: One Nation win
22. MUNDINGBURRA
Dennis Easzon (Ind)
Mal Charlwood (PHON)
Jenny Brown (The Greens)
Mike Abraham (KAP)
Geoff Virgo (Ind)
Coralee O’Rourke (Labor) *
Matthew Derlagen (LNP)
Alan Birrell (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: LNP gain
PETER BEATTIE: One Nation win
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: LNP gain
23. HINCHINBROOK
Peter Raffles (Ind)
Margaret Bell (PHON)
Lyle Burness (The Greens)
Nick Dametto (KAP)
Paul Jacob (ALP)
Andrew Cripps (LNP) *
OUR VERDICT: LNP retains
PETER BEATTIE: Possible One Nation win
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: One Nation win
24. HILL
Diana O’Brien (ALP)
Mario Quagliata (LNP)
Johanna Kloot (The Greens)
Chester Gordon Tuxford (Ind)
Shane Knuth (KAP) *
Stewart Worth (Ind)
OUR VERDICT: KAP retains
PETER BEATTIE: KAP retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: KAP retains
25. BARRON RIVER
Michael Trout (LNP)
Andrew Hodgetts (Ind)
Cameron Boyd (The Greens)
Craig Crawford (ALP) *
Cheryl Tonkin (Ind))
Andrew Schebella (PHON)
OUR VERDICT: Labor retains
PETER BEATTIE: Close but Labor retains
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Labor retains
Originally published as Queensland election 2017: Top 25 seats to watch
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