Queensland election 2017: Preferences could save Leanne Donaldson

ON PAPER, bill-dodging Labor MP Leanne Donaldson looks on track for a wipeout at the state election. But preference flows could tell a very different story.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on the media bus during the Queensland election campaign in Cairns. Picture: Darren England/AAP

BILL-dodging Member for Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson has all the baggage of a Labor member you’d expect to be wiped out on November 25.

Forced from the ministry over unpaid rates and vehicle registration, Donaldson proved spectacularly last year that not all publicity is good publicity.

With a wafer-thin margin of 0.5 per cent after a staggering swing towards her of 20 per cent in 2015, it’s difficult to see how Donaldson would survive when Newman-era anger has subsided.

Throw in the renaissance of One Nation in regional Queensland and you’d assume the former agriculture minister may already be pondering how she’ll pay her next rates bill.

However, Donaldson, as well as a few other Labor members washed in during the Newman wipeout, are still in this race.

Former agriculture minister Leanne Donaldson holds her seat of Bundaberg by a wafer-thin 0.5 per cent.

Bundaberg is demonstrative of other regional electorates held by both major parties where One Nation has returned.

It may seem like Pauline Hanson’s party is carving apart the major parties but a significant proportion of One Nation’s vote comes from sopping up a high “other” vote that’s present at every election.

In 2015, Donaldson and sitting MP Jack Dempsey scored about 40 per cent of the primary vote each.

A Palmer’s United Party candidate scored 12 per cent and 72 per cent of the distributed preferences went to Labor, allowing Donaldson to win.

Labor polling conducted in late September put One Nation’s vote in Bundaberg at 23.3 per cent.

Labor was on 38.6 per cent while the LNP was on 30.1 per cent.

Most of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s support in Bundaberg has been picked up from Palmer United Party voters.

That means just over half One Nation’s support has been soaked up from former PUP voters, most of the remainder comes from the LNP while Labor lost very little.

According to the polling, enough One Nation second preferences would leak to Labor to put Donaldson ahead 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Similar occurred in 1998 in Bundaberg.

One Nation snared almost 30 per cent of the vote and finished second after the Nationals vote collapsed.

However, enough Nationals’ preferences leaked to Labor to allow the late Nita Cunningham to limp over the line.

With Labor’s vote holding and regional preferences historically sporadic, even bill dodgers cannot be written off.

Originally published as Queensland election 2017: Preferences could save Leanne Donaldson