Queensland election 2017: LNP going too soft on Premier
ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk’s personal popularity means the LNP must convince voters to barbecue Bambi, writes Steven Wardill.
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UNLESS tragedy strikes, Annastacia Palaszczuk should be walking back into 1 William St after this election with her premier’s title intact.
A resounding victory of 50-plus seats is not beyond her grasp if Labor continues with its strong momentum and is blessed with a bit of luck.
The Sky News/Courier-Mail People’s Forum on Thursday night laid bare the flaws in the campaign of her opponent, LNP leader Tim Nicholls, on two crucial fronts.
Firstly, Palaszczuk’s popularity is proving an insurmountable obstacle for the LNP. The Nicholls camp has not worked out how to tackle the Labor leader’s engaging and unpretentious appeal.
That was evident from the reaction of the 100-strong crowd of swinging voters that was selected to attend the forum at the Broncos Leagues Club.
The LNP is trying to fight nice with nice.
While the Labor campaign has a full-throttle negative advertising campaign running about Nicholls and his time as the Newman government’s treasurer, the LNP is attempting to counter this with a positive approach.
It’s not working — not yet anyway.
Voters at the forum may have indicated with rousing applause that they didn’t want to hear about the former administration.
However negative campaigns often elicit such responses from voters, but they can be devastatingly effective.
With Labor marshalling an army of third-party forces to launder and legitimise all manner of claims on television, in mailboxes and on street corners, particularly in the LNP’s many marginal Brisbane seats, they’re snuffing out any hope of Nicholls lifting his own popularity.
Meanwhile, the LNP has concentrated on trying to massage its leader’s image and is pulling its punches on Palaszczuk’s performance.
This tactic has been the subject of some conjecture internally within the LNP. But there is deep concern about appearing like the bully boys of old.
The second crucial flaw exposed at the forum is that Nicholls’ message looks manufactured and insincere.
His position on whether he’d form government with One Nation in a hung Parliament looked shifty and caused the audience to turn on him.
Palaszczuk’s answer was much more succinct. “Ah, no,” she said.
Nicholls’ response is legitimate, where Palaszczuk’s declaration of “no deal” with anyone is a con. But the LNP leader’s response that he’ll deal with the Parliament that the people deliver comes out sounding shifty.
The problem is the alternative is worse. Admitting he’d accept minority government with One Nation support would give swinging voters — like those at the forum — a licence to support Pauline Hanson’s party, when the LNP desperately needs to win these people back.
Both leaders’ responses to the question about debt were lacklustre. Yet the Premier looked like she actually believed what she was saying, while the Opposition Leader appeared conflicted and disingenuous.
And that’s probably true, given that Nicholls previously argued strongly that reducing the state’s burdensome borrowing bill should be a priority but this time is saying it has to take a back seat to other issues, such as reducing electricity prices.
These two flaws collide into a convoluted argument for the LNP, and a much more chequered path to victory.
Meanwhile, the presence at the forum of One Nation’s Steve Dickson — a good communicator who made pie-in-the-sky commitments sound simple — further demonstrated the complications of the LNP campaign.
Palaszczuk’s message, by comparison, was uncomplicated and, together with her appeal, is why 60 of the 100 voters at the forum sided with her at the end.
Nicholls’ job is like trying to convince voters to barbecue Bambi.
Palaszczuk, however, has streaked ahead and the LNP is running out of time to track her down.
Steven Wardill is The Courier-Mail’s state affairs editor
Originally published as Queensland election 2017: LNP going too soft on Premier
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