Queensland Election 2017: Last days of campaign will still produce surprises

AFTER rocky campaign for all sides, Queensland’s polling numbers have returned to the same as the campaign’s early days with Labor looking like a winner. But there could be a surprise or two yet, writes Steven Wardill.

Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls at Droughtmaster stud in Kenilworth. Picture: AAP

AFTER four weeks of promises and stunts, numerous blunders and brutal political attacks, the 2017 election ­campaign hasn’t actually changed anything.

Labor has victory within its grasp, leading the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. That’s the same result that was ­recorded just days into the campaign.

A win would ensure Annastacia Palaszczuk earns a place in the pantheon of Australian political history.

Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls has been the underdog throughout the election with One Nation on his heels.

Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls during a doorstop at Enzo's On The Beach Cafe in Hervey Bay. Picture: AAP

But there still remains a slender chance that preference flows could fall in the LNP’s favour on election night.

A belief that Palaszczuk may miss out on the 47 seats needed to form a majority has not been extinguished.

The critical question will be how One Nation voters number their ballot papers under new compulsory preferential voting laws.

Out of the LNP and Labor, which will they place above the other?

Pauline Hanson’s party ­appears certain to be limited to just a few regional seats.

One Nation’s support has fallen since the start of the election campaign, but still looks to pick up a few regional seats. Federal leader Pauline Hanson is pictured. Picture: AAP

However, with one in five regional voters backing One Nation, their preferencing will have an influence in almost every seat.

While One Nation’s decision to preference against sitting MPs would appear to hurt the LNP, the minor party is unlikely to have the troops to staff polling stations. Its voters have also shown they don’t follow how-to-vote cards. This makes regional Queensland a political powder keg.

It also means it is crucial that the major parties win as many marginal seats as possible in the southeast corner.

The stunts might have stopped, but surprises may yet keep on coming.

Originally published as Queensland Election 2017: Last days of campaign will still produce surprises