Queensland Election 2017: Galaxy poll predicts win for Labor and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk

A COURIER-Mail/Galaxy poll has Annastacia Palaszczuk on the cusp of leading Labor to another election win, despite a deep chasm in voter sentiment that has divided Queensland.

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ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk is on the cusp of leading Labor to a historic election victory on Saturday, despite a deep chasm in voter sentiment that has divided Queensland.

An exclusive Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll has revealed the Queensland Premier is poised to pick up enough southeast corner seats to replace losses in the regions where voters have turned against both major parties.

Labor could snare the 47 electorates necessary to form a majority in the 93-seat State Parliament, with a win furthering Ms Palaszczuk’s record as the most successful female major party leader in Australian political history.

However, the result hinges heavily on the unpredictable preference flows from One Nation supporters after Labor controversially ditched Queensland’s “Just Vote 1” laws.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (centre), joined by the Member for Mount Coot-tha, Steven Miles (left), poses for a photo with Ruby the koala during a visit to Australia Zoo in Beerwah. Picture: AAP/Dan Peled

The poll of more than 1500 Queenslanders conducted this week found Labor leads the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, the same result that was recorded in the days after Ms Palaszczuk pulled the trigger on the early election.

One Nation’s vote has sunk from 18 per cent to 12 per cent statewide after Pauline Hanson’s gaffe-prone campaign that was repeatedly interrupted, where the party only managed to field candidates in 61 electorates.

This has allowed Labor’s vote to inch forward over the past four weeks from 35 per cent to 37 per cent, almost mirroring the support Ms Palaszczuk received at her extraordinary 2015 victory over Campbell Newman.

The LNP has also benefited, increasing from 32 per cent to 35 per cent, although this figure is well below the 41.3 per cent achieved three years ago.

Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls with Deputy Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington in Toowoomba. Picture: AAP/Tracey Nearmy

However, the more telling results are revealed in the divergence in voting patterns between the southeast corner, where there are 62 electorates, compared to the rest of the state, which has 31 seats.

Ms Hanson’s party has carved out an extraordinary 20 per cent of the primary support throughout regional Queensland.

This has put One Nation in a prime position to return MPs to the floor of Parliament for the first time since 2009, while the preference decisions of the party’s voters will have a decisive impact.

One Nation has preferenced against almost every sitting MP; however, the party does not have the army of volunteers to staff polling booths and its voters often ignore how-to-vote cards.

Labor’s region vote has dropped 3.9 per cent to 30 per cent since 2015, while the LNP has deteriorated from 40.2 per cent to 33 per cent.

One Nation Leader Senator Pauline Hanson visits a lighting factory in Salisbury, Brisbane. One Nation’s vote has fallen from 18 per cent to 12 per cent. Picture: AAP

On a two-party preferred basis, the LNP lead in regional Queensland 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent, a swing towards the Tim Nicholls-led team of 1.1 per cent.

This would imperil Labor electorates including Mundingburra and Thuringowa in Townsville where One Nation is the favourite.

Bundaberg, Maryborough, Keppel and Mirani will also be difficult to retain.

However, in southeast Queensland, the two-party preferred swing towards Labor is 1.7 per cent, with the party leading the LNP by a dominating 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

Labor’s vote in the populated region is 40 per cent compared to 39.5 per cent in 2015, while the LNP has sunk from 41.9 per cent to 36 per cent with the Greens on 12 per cent.

The result will likely cost the LNP electorates such as Mansfield, Mount Ommaney, Redlands and Glass House, and potentially allow Labor to regain a foothold on the Gold Coast in Gaven and the new seat of Bonney.

Originally published as Queensland Election 2017: Galaxy poll predicts win for Labor and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk