Queensland Election 2017: One Nation enjoys spoils as major parties’ messages fail to reach voters

THE major parties have been unable to capture voters’ attention but round one goes to Tim Nicholls.

Tim Nicholls and the LNP easily won the first week.

QUEENSLAND’S election feels very retro at the end of week one, with the major parties unable to capture the attention of voters and One Nation enjoying the spoils of a growing “drain-the-swamp” sentiment.

The last time we had these circumstances swirling around in an election campaign was 1998, when One Nation had its first major outing as a party and shocked the political establishment by scooping up 23 per cent of the statewide vote and winning 11 seats.

We’ve got three weeks before we know whether history is going to echo that poll almost 20 years ago, but Labor and the LNP need to start breaking through with their messages if they are going to prevent something like that happening.

By any objective measure, Tim Nicholls and the LNP won the first week easily.

They had four substantial announcements, which will give their candidates plenty to talk about when they mix with voters.

Increases in nurse numbers are unlikely to cut it.

It is hard to work out what talking points Labor candidates will have for their conversations with voters. Public sector plans for business as usual, increases in nursing numbers, and an extension of a training program are unlikely to cut it.

The problem for the LNP seems to be the salesman rather than the product, which is holding the party back from stemming its votes bleeding to One Nation.

Our Galaxy poll today shows Nicholls’ net satisfaction sitting virtually unchanged on negative 12 (Annastacia Palaszczuk is in a much happier place on just negative 1).

These numbers explain why the first week’s advertising from both major parties have one thing in common – LNP leader Nicholls.

The LNP needs to get a positive shine on its leader so voters will be more sympathetic towards him and listen to what he’s got to say, which is why he’s fronting the ads (always with his deputy, Deb Frecklington) talking about the party’s positive plans.

Labor’s dominant ad – and the best offering of the campaign so far – had former premier Campbell Newman morphing into Nicholls, with the message that the LNP leader was behind every “bad decision” during the last conservative term of government. “Didn’t he do enough damage last time?” the ad asks.

LNP leader Tim Nicholls stars in Labor’s latest election ad.

Labor is seeking to do what the LNP has been unable to achieve during the past three years – define Nicholls’ persona for voters.

If the LNP wants to get some results from its efforts to polish his image, it could start with a slogan that has more creative definition than “Together, let’s build a better Queensland”, which sounds like it came from an Aldi catalogue.

This Seinfeld election – increasingly about nothing – is likely to turn even more negative. Expect Labor to keep up its attacks on Nicholls as the shadow of Newman, as well as some “Stability versus Chaos” spots.

From the LNP we’re likely to see some very creepy anti-union messages, with lawlessness and thuggery on high rotation.

Dennis Atkins is The Courier-Mail’s national affairs editor

Originally published as Queensland Election 2017: One Nation enjoys spoils as major parties’ messages fail to reach voters