Qld weather: La Nina predicted to make return in 2024

Australia is on track to see its fourth La Nina event in five years with almost no chance of another El Nino in 2024, predictions show.

Australia is on track to see its fourth La Nina event in five years with almost no chance of another El Nino in 2024, Sky News predicts.

A return of La Nina, which is associated with increased rainfall, this year would not be unusual, with the climate driver immediately following an El Nino 65 per cent of the time throughout history.

But it would mean little rain reprieve for Queensland and all of eastern Australia, with neutral conditions and drier weather expected to last for mere months between February and May.

Sky News meteorologist Rob Sharpe noted the past four years had been “remarkable” due to the lack of neutral ocean conditions, which usually return to normal following multiple El Nino or La Nina stints.

He reported two thirds of forecast models were now predicting the Pacific Ocean moving into La Nina in the second half of this year.

La Nina is associated with increased rainfall. Picture: Nigel Hallett

“Therefore, Sky News Weather is giving La Nina a 65 per cent chance of developing this year, a 30 per cent chance of remaining neutral and only a 5 per cent chance of seeing back-to-back El Nino,” he said.

The modelling referred to by Mr Sharpe is called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) pattern.

The IPO is a pattern based on El Nino’s “uncle” El Tio and La Nina’s “aunt” La Tia, which usually remain active for decades and support long spurts of dry weather (drought) or above average rainfall.

The two overarching systems last between 20-30 years, and are measured off sea temperatures, which for a long time, have been very warm.

The parent climate drivers are starkly different compared to the lifespan of El Nino or La Nina drivers, which tend to expire every three to five years.

El Tio was last active in the early 1980s to the early 2000s, when Australia was in drought, and La Tia has been active ever since.

Mr Sharpe predicts that even if a La Nina does not develop this year, and neutral conditions do return, the persistent warm sea temperatures of La Tia would still lead to wetter than average conditions for Queensland.

Originally published as Qld weather: La Nina predicted to make return in 2024