Fortress Qld: How the Sunshine state will decide the election

With the election only a day away, Queensland has again emerged as the key battleground. Five seats have been identified that will determine if the LNP will hold on to its “fortress Queensland”, or whether Labor can break through and win government.

Labor is gunning to make a dent in “Fortress Queensland”, with up to three seats in its sights in the final hours of the campaign as it seeks to fall over the line into a majority government.

But Coalition campaigners still see a way to retain power if they can win over the majority of undecided voters due to Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s embarrassing gaffes.

Brisbane is considered by both sides the most likely Queensland seat to change hands tomorrow, with Leichhardt and Longman also still in play.

The Coalition is more confident of holding Ryan, but it is likely to become marginal despite once being a blue-ribbon seat.

Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk was making robocalls in the area in a last-ditch bid to sway voters.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison (centre) campaigning with Member for Leichhardt Warren Entsch (left) in Cairns this week. They are pictured with James Cook University Cairns campus director David Craig. Picture: Brendan Radke

Three inner-city seats – Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith – are set to become three-cornered contests between Labor, LNP and the Greens in future elections amid a rising vote for the minor party.

Queensland is key to the Coalition clinging to power, while Labor’s path to majority government is extremely difficult unless it can win seats in the Sunshine State.

Labor could struggle to pick up the seven net seats it needs to avoid a hung parliament.

Depending on how undecided voters break, Labor could win one to three seats in Queensland, with Brisbane, Leichhardt and Longman the most likely.

But the Coalition is hopeful of a late break in their favour, which could see them hold steady and even pick up the marginal Labor seat of Blair.

There was an almost seven per cent swing against the incumbent MP Shayne Neumann in 2019, which has seen the government throw significant resources at the seat this time, but Labor remain confident they will hold it.

The Sunshine Coast/Moreton Bay seat of Longman could come down to the preference deal the LNP did with One Nation.

Hitting the hustings in southeast Queensland as part of a two-day “sprint to the finish”, Mr Albanese made a quick stop in pre-polling at Ryan where he appeared with Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and candidate Peter Cossar, before moving up to Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.

While some of those close to Prime Minister Scott Morrison are confident that the LNPs “fortress Queensland” will hold, others are more concerned.

Some Coalition players speaking from pre-polling said they could “feel a swing on” but are not certain how big it will be.

Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese with Labor candidate for Ryan Peter Cossar and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Picture: Instagram/Annastacia Palaszczuk

While Labor has been talking up its chances of winning up to three seats in WA, there is growing speculation this could be cut back to just two or even one seat.

With teal Independents the most likely to pick up seats from the government in Victoria, rather than Labor, it would make the Opposition’s path to a majority government more difficult.

There is anger in the LNP ranks at the NSW Liberal Party, which saw internal factional battles leave them without candidates in key winnable seats until days before the election was called.

It has created some vulnerabilities for the Coalition in the state which could prove costly on election night.

Of the 30 seats in Queensland, the Coalition hold 23 of them, Labor six and Independent Bob Katter has the remaining one.

While Labor is unlikely to win regional seats like Capricornia, Flynn or Dawson, political pundits will keep a close eye on if they retain strong margins in the LNP’s favour.

The Opposition had thrown a large amount of resources at Flynn, considered one of its early best chances, but have been more deflated about its chances in recent times.

After a thrashing in Queensland in 2019, the party is talking down its chances in the state and will be happy if it can pick even just one or two seats.

National polling still favours a Labor majority victory, but both sides suggest there will not be an overwhelming win, with the seat-by-seat battle expected to be much closer.

Originally published as Fortress Qld: How the Sunshine state will decide the election