BOM predicts moderate chance for tropical cyclone off Qld coast

Queensland’s first cyclone of the season could form off the far north at the weekend, while a separate severe weather system has hammered parts of the region with heavy rain overnight.

A tropical low could form off the Queensland coast this week and develop into a cyclone at the weekend.

Queensland’s first cyclone of the season could form in the Coral Sea off the Far North coast at the weekend, as a trough continues to deepen, triggering a severe weather warning for up to 320mm of rain.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury confirmed there was a tropical low developing in the North Coral Sea – as well as another in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

A third tropical low may also develop in the far north eastern Coral Sea, west of Vanuatu, during the week, the Bureau says.

It’s chance of becoming a cyclone increases to moderate by next Sunday.

“Now, there’s only a chance that these low systems could become tropical cyclones through Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” she said.

“But the low in the Coral Sea off the Cairns coast does increase to have a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone from next Sunday.”

“We’re not even seeing a tropical low at the moment. Our forecast are just indicating a tropical low may develop. That likelihood will increase over the next couple of days, but the cyclone potential doesn’t really ramp up until the end of this week.”

Tropical cyclone activity off northeast Australian coast according to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Picture: ECMWF

Ms Bradbury said there were still a couple of different possibilities of how the weather systems could play out.

“We’re waiting until they tell a more consistent story, then we can have greater confidence of where this system may develop.”

Meanwhile, a gradually deepening trough off the North Queensland coast has sparked a severe weather warning with forecasts of localised falls of up to 300mm over 24 hours.

The warning covers parts of the North Tropical Coast and Herbert and Lower Burdekin Districts.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that six-hourly rainfall totals between 130 and 180mm could be possible.

Rita Island near Ayr copped 117mm in three hours early on Tuesday, while South Johnstone has had 137mm since 9am on Monday; Diwan, in the Douglas shire between Cairns and Cooktown, 132mm; Ayr 120mm; Innisfail 116mm and Cairns racecourse 115mm.

A heatwave warning has been issued for the North West and Channel Country districts, with multiple days of extreme temperatures expected, with tops hitting the mid-40s.

“Severe heatwave conditions are expected to gradually extend northwards, clearing the Channel Country by mid week. Despite this, low-intensity heatwave conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of the week,” the Bureau of Meteorology warning said.

“Locations likely to be impacted include Birdsville, Bedourie, Urandangi and Windorah.”

Originally published as BOM predicts moderate chance for tropical cyclone off Qld coast