Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by Alex Turnbull says

New research co-authored by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex predicts coal exports will never again reach their previous highs.

If China ends its ban on Australian coal tomorrow, there will still be a major drop in exports of the valuable resource to Beijing which will never return to the heights it once reached, according to new research co-authored by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex.

The research from the Australian National University has found China is increasing its local production and sourcing of coal, while is also working towards reducing its pollution – even if it is only seeking to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060.

Australia’s coal boom is coming to a close, according to a new report from ANU. Picture: AAP image, John Gass

It found by 2025 Australia’s exports would be slashed by 26 per cent compared to where they were pre-ban, if trade was to start flowing again.

But Australia has found new buyers for its exports and is currently enjoying record prices and demand.

The report was authored by ANU professors Dr Jorrit Gosens and Professor Frank Jotzo, as well as Alex Turnbull as a Singapore-based researcher.

Dr Gosens said their modelling, looking at its decarbonisation policies and internal push for domestic energy product to reduce reliance on foreign supplies, found China’s demand for thermal coal would fall about 26 per cent compared to 2019.

“Our findings are clear; Beijing’s plans for rapid decarbonisation and energy security signal

the end for Australia’s current coal export boon,” Dr Gosens said.

“Any Chinese reduction in demand matters, even if the Chinese embargo on coal imports

from Australia remains in place.

“Such reductions would free up the current suppliers to China to find new customers in the global seaborne market, where they would push out Australian suppliers.”

Australia’s coal boom is coming to a close, according to a new report from ANU co-authored by Alex Turnbull, pictured in 2018. Picture: Hollie Adams/The Australian

Australian coal exports are expected to reach $110 billion this financial year, only the second resource to do so after iron ore.

Metallurgical coal, used for making steel, hit a record $650a tonne recently and thermal coal reaching $280 a tonne – well up from budgeted for prices of $130 a tonne and $60 a tonne respectively.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said in October last year that Australia had found new buyers for 90 per cent of its product hit by Chinese sanctions.

Originally published as Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by Alex Turnbull says