Greens votes could decide Richmond come election day

It’s set to be a tight contest in NSW’s most northerly seat, which could be decided by Greens preferences.

A political pundit suggests the closely contested Richmond seat is on the Coalition’s radar as one it can snatch from Labor in the looming Federal election.

But Griffith University political expert Dr Paul Williams said it is unlikely in the “current climate” and he doesn’t expect the Greens vote to grow exponentially.

Nevertheless the tight contest in NSW’s most northerly seat - which takes in Tweed, Murwillumbah, Byron Bay and Ballina - could be decided by Greens preferences.

In 2016, sitting Labor Member for Richmond Justine Elliot narrowly retained the seat she’s held since 2004 when she defeated Nationals contender Matthew Fraser – with help from Green voters.

Bill Shorten with Member for Richmond Justine Elliot. Picture Kym Smith

Labor won 31 per cent of the primary party vote in 2016 compared to 37 per cent for the Nationals. But thanks to preferences from the Greens snaring 20.4 per cent, Labor ended up with 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Mrs Elliot clung to the seat despite what was a four per cent swing against Labor and her slim margin has been further impacted by the shuffling of electoral boundaries.

As part of a Labor Opposition vying for power in Canberra, Mrs Elliot has pledged “a fair go for all Australians not just the top end of town”.

She has campaigned around healthcare, education and tax cuts for workers under Labor’s “Fair Go Action Plan”.

Dr Paul Williams has today offered his insight into the Richmond electorate.

Mrs Elliot said Labor would “put people first to ensure every community has quality public schools and hospitals”.

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“Labor will ease the pressure on family budgets and we’ll end the Medicare freeze as well as give tax breaks to workers and stop the cuts to penalty rates,” she said.

Mrs Elliot has pledged more than $52 million to upgrade the Kennedy Drive and Kirkwood Road interchanges at Tweed Heads.

Labor would reduce the costs of childcare and provide some older voters in Richmond with free dental care, she said.

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She has also announced cash injections for community groups, including $137,500 for palliative care at Wedgetail Retreat.

Meanwhile, Mr Fraser has honed in on Labor’s controversial tax system changes during his third “underdog” attempt the seat.

Matthew Fraser narrowly missed out on the seat last election.

“We already know that Justine Elliot and Bill Shorten’s Labor retiree tax policy will affect over 8000 individual seniors and pensioners from Tweed Heads to Ballina at the hip pocket,” he said.

“Only the Nationals Retiree plan will help seniors and pensioners feel safe and secure in their working and retirement years.”

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Mr Fraser has also promised a new regional cancer facility in Tweed under the LNP.

Greens candidate and Acting Mayor of Byron Shire Council Michael Lyon is focusing his campaign around homelessness and environmental issues.

“We have some of the lowest rates of social housing provisions in the country,” he said.

“Tweed has a much higher rate of rough sleeping, with as many as 500 people homeless.”

Mr Lyon will advocate for more affordable housing.

WE ASKED 50 RANDOM PEOPLE IN RICHMOND:

*Who is the incumbent member?

Don’t know - 22

Justine Elliot – 12

A female - 7

Matthew Fraser – 4

Geoff Provest – 3

Tamara Smith – 1

Nationals – 1

*Who do you believe is the main challenger?

Don’t know – 31

Labor – 4

Matthew Fraser – 8

Greens – 3

Justine Elliot – 3

National - 1

*Who is the Prime Minister?

Scott Morrison – 38

Don’t know – 9

Malcolm Turnbull -2

John Howard – 1

*Who is the Opposition leader?

Bill Shorten – 34

Don’t know – 12

Pauline Hanson - 2

Labor – 1

Greens - 1

*What is your main election issue?

Don’t have one – 16

Economy – 4

Climate change – 4

Electricity prices - 3

Pensioners – 3

Small business – 3

Water - 2

Hospitals - 2

Cost of living – 2

Family support – 2

Roads - 1

Education - 1

Health - 1

Jobs - 1

Town planning - 1

Pensioners - 1

Welfare support – 1

Homelessness – 1

Banking – 1

*Do you have a preferred party?

No – 29

Liberal – 6

Green – 4

One Nation - 3

Labor – 3

Nationals – 2

United Australia Party – 1

Christian Democratic Party – 1

Fraser Anning’s Conservative Party – 1