Gold Coast’s only independent MP facing Gaven defeat as punters tire of party hopping
A FLOOD of support from punters towards the ALP has seen Michael Riordan become one of the favourites in the political battle for the state seat of Gaven.
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THE Gold Coast’s only independent MP, Alex Douglas, is tipped for a shock state election defeat that could hand Gaven back to Labor for the first time since 2009.
Bookies and political pundits are predicting the loss after a tumultuous few years for Dr Douglas, who won the 2009 state election for the LNP, then resigned to sit as an independent, then joined the Palmer United Party as its parliamentary leader, then quit the party to become an independent again.
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Sportsbet released new odds for seats across the state yesterday, putting Dr Douglas at $5.50.
The favourite to win Gaven is LNP candidate Sid Cramp at $1.85, with Labor’s Michael Riordan at $2.80.
Sportsbet spokesman Christian Jantzen yesterday expected Mr Riordan to move into the top spot by election day.
“If the money keeps coming for the ALP, the odds for their candidate will shorten further and be less than the LNP,” Mr Jantzen said.
“We have not seen a dollar for Alex Douglas at this point.”
Odds of $2.20 were on offer for Mr Douglas when the election was called.
A confident Dr Douglas questioned the validity of the Sportsbet odds saying he tried to put $1000 on himself but Sportsbet would not accept it.
“I think I will be re-elected,” he said.
“But I am happy to be the underdog.
“I’d just like to get a piece of the action.”
Political scientist Dr Paul Williams, of Griffith University, said the fortunes of Dr Douglas had waned in the past year.
“Alex has dropped off the radar since he left the PUP,” Dr Williams said.
“The PUP was a useful vehicle for him to keep up his profile.”
But Dr Williams would not go so far as to tip an ALP win in the seat that stretches from Carrara in the south through Nerang to Wongawallen in the north.
“I think the LNP will fall over the line there.
“Given the ALP history that Gaven has, it is not improbable for the ALP to win it. I think the LNP is a nose in front, however.”
The ALP held the seat from 2001, when voters elected union organiser Robert Poole.
Mr Poole spent much of his time in Thailand and was forced to resign, causing a by-election that was won by Dr Douglas.
But Labor snatched the seat back in the 2006 state election.
Meanwhile, there has also been a noticeable change in Broadwater, where the ALP’s candidate Penny Toland is breathing down the neck of sitting MP Verity Barton.
Ms Barton attracted unwelcome publicity for failing to pay toll fines and then driving without a licence.
The LNP is still favourite, but has drifted from $1.67 last week to $1.85, while the ALP is now sitting on $2.05.