Exclusive Gold Coast Bulletin ReachTel poll: Broadwater, Burleigh, Albert hanging on by a thread
THREE Gold Coast electorates hang in the balance for the LNP, an exclusive Gold Coast Bulletin poll has found.
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THREE Gold Coast electorates hang in the balance for the LNP, an exclusive Gold Coast Bulletin poll has found.
While the city is likely to remain an LNP stronghold after tomorrow’s state election, the ReachTEL poll of 1115 locals foreshadows an average 10 per cent primary vote swing away from the party compared with 2012, averaged across the 10 electorates.
The seats of Albert, Broadwater and Burleigh are held with margins of 11.9, 11.3 and 11 per cent respectively.
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The poll was conducted across the Gold Coast City Council area and has a margin for error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
Asked who they intended to vote for, 48.3 per cent of 1115 locals polled chose the LNP; 29.4 per cent Labor; 6.1 per cent The Greens; 5.9 per cent Palmer United Party; 4.4 per cent other and 6 per cent were undecided.
In 2012, primary votes for the LNP on the Gold Coast averaged 58.3 per cent over the 10 seats, while Labor attracted a citywide average of 29.4 per cent of primary votes.
A 10 per cent primary vote loss would mean Burleigh MP Michael Hart would retain his seat on a mere 1 per cent margin, while Broadwater MP Verity Barton would hang on with 1.3 per cent and Albert’s Mark Boothman would have a 1.9 per cent margin.
Rob Molhoek would keep Southport with a slightly more comfortable 4.7 per cent.
The LNP members for Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach and Mudgeeraba could afford to lose double the indicated swing without being ousted.
While the poll shows a 10 per cent swing away from the LNP, many of those lost votes look to be headed towards independent candidates and minor parties.
Compared with the 2012 results, the poll indicates Labor could expect an average 5.7 per cent swing towards them across the Gold Coast.
The poll, commissioned exclusively for the Gold Coast Bulletin, also revealed the very different voting intentions of different age groups and genders.
The highest proportion of locals who intend to vote for the LNP are men aged over 65; the highest proportion of intended Labor voters are women aged 51-65; almost 10 per cent of 18-34-year olds — largely female — intend to vote for The Greens; and men aged 35-50 make up the highest proportion of intended Palmer United voters.
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