ALP loss in Gold Coast Hinterland seat could prevent majority rule
THE latest results from Gaven suggest the LNP is on course to win the seat in what will be a severe blow to Labor gaining majority rule in the State.
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THE LNP is on course to win the seat of Gaven in what will be a severe blow to Labor gaining majority rule across the State.
The fortunes of both parties changed early yesterday as electoral commission staff began a notional preference count in the hotly contested northern Coast electorate.
The LNP received a boost after a count of the major booth at Pacific Pines added significantly to candidate Sid Cramp’s overnight lead of 193 votes.
The numbers rebounded for Labor midmorning with their candidate Michael Riordan recording a 322-116 win in the Nerang PCYC booth.
RELATED: GAVEN COUNT DOWN TO THE WIRE
However, by the break about 1pm the notional preference count for all booths was complete and the LNP camp was buoyed after its scrutineers estimated Mr Cramp was 526 votes in front.
Labor scrutineers believe there could be between 5000-6000 votes to be counted while the LNP suggest that figure might be as low as 3000.
Those votes are postal, absentee and declaration where residents arrived at booths to find their name is not on a list or they lacked personal identification.
Scrutineers managed to get a look at the postal votes during the primary vote count and the LNP is confident at least 50 per cent will favour Mr Cramp.
Labor acknowledge postal votes favour the LNP and the only way Mr Riordan can overtake Mr Cramp is if the absentee and declaration votes weigh heavily towards the ALP.
“There are still about 5000 votes to come. We still have a long way to go,” Mr Riordan told the Bulletin.
“It (the count) has been all over the place. In some booths we’ve had a strong preference flow and in others not so much.”
On the primary vote, Mr Cramp had polled just more than 38 per cent and Mr Riordan almost 30. Sitting MP, Independent Alex Douglas, obtained only 13 per cent of the vote.
Dr Douglas gave his first preference to Labor which he believed, after conceding on Saturday night, would help the ALP win his seat.
“The preference flow to us has been three to one from Alex, and less than two to one in some booths. It’s hard to pick a trend,” Mr Riordan said.
“I’m still in the contest. I will be back again tomorrow fighting it out to the end.”
Mr Cramp believed the count reflected the figures his scrutineers were relaying to him during Saturday’s poll.
“Pacific Pines was a big boost for us. Overall, I have to say it is going well for us,” Mr Cramp said.
Professor Stephen Stockwell, from the School of Humanities at Griffith University, said the LNP was always on track to win the seat despite it being shown up as a Labor gain on the Electoral Commission site.
“I never counted it as a Labor gain. They had it at 43 seats. It’s only 42 for Labor. It’s certainly a blow to them gaining majority government,” Prof Stockwell said.
“The result in Gaven will make it just that harder for them to govern in their own right. They are ahead in 44 seats as far as I can see.”
Prof Stockwell said the most likely scenario was Labor forming government with Independent Peter Wellington as Speaker.
“He would play a very good role as a Speaker. He strikes me as a fair-minded chap,” he said.
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