Roman history warning for Albo as he ducks trade deal with Trump

Much like a certain Roman general, Anthony Albanese’s technique with Trump has been to delay, avoid and skirt around the fight over Washington’s new order for world trade, writes James Morrow.

What does Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have in common with a Roman general who lived in the third century BC?

Perhaps more than most people would think.

Back in ancient Rome there was a general by the name of Quintus Fabius Maximus who was tasked with seeing off the invading armies of the Carthaginian leader, Hannibal, who was best known for taking his armies of elephants across the Alps to attack what we now call Italy.

Fabius’ strategy was to avoid his enemy and delay action or contact as much as possible, a habit that earned him the nickname “The Delayer” (“Cunctator” in Latin, a tricky one after a few wines in the Forum).

Fast forward to today and we have Albanese, who has adopted very much the same strategy as Fabius in dealing with his own nemesis, US president Donald Trump and inking some sort of trade deal between our two nations.

Anthony Albanese, on the phone with Donald Trump, has become a delayer, just like the Roman general Fabius.

Much like Fabius, Albanese’s technique has been to delay, avoid, and generally skirt around the fight over Washington’s new order for world trade.

Like Elon Musk ducking one of his baby mommas, the prime minister appears to be doing everything he can to avoid a one-on-one encounter with the president.

The prime minister has also avoided meeting with US vice-president JD Vance. Picture: AP Photo/Matt Rourke

This history is well known, from Albanese’s refusal to go to Washington to seek a meeting with Trump either before or after the May election, to his studious avoidance of US vice president JD Vance at Pope Francis’s funeral.

There has been a bit of luck involved, too: You can only imagine the relief in the prime ministerial party when Trump ducked out of the G-7 in Canada early to oversee strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

But unlike Fabius – whose delaying tactics were eventually so successful that his nickname went from being an insult to a compliment – Albanese’s luck may be running out.

Having struck deals with big players EU, the UK, and Japan, it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump’s patience is wearing off when it comes to negotiating individual deals with individual smaller players, Australia included.

Fabius Maximus was tasked with seeing off the invading armies of the Carthaginian leader Hannibal. Picture: Public domain image

Instead, speaking from his golf course in Tunberry, Scotland – where Trump has, amusingly, hosted his own state visit with the hapless UK prime minister Keir Starmer – Trump said Monday that it might be time to draw a line under talks.

“We are going to be setting a tariff, for essentially the rest of the world, and that’s what they’re going to pay if you want to do business in the United States,” he said.

How much might that be?

“I would say in the range of 15 to 20 per cent. Probably one of those two numbers,” Trump said.

Well, if that’s the case, bad news for Australia.

In essence, it will mean that the prime minister’s terror of the bad optics of a potential Oval Office dressing down over his government’s shabby defence spending and disrespect for free speech was worth exporters copping a higher tariff.

US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Prestwick, Scotland, where the UK managed to secure a 10 per cent tariff on most goods. Picture: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Fellow AUKUS partner Great Britain managed to secure 10 per cent on most goods with further exemptions for steel and aluminium.

The EU – which most observers believe got the short end of the stick in talks with the US – will pay 15 per cent on most goods exported to the US while also committing to buying hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American energy.

And Australia?

Well, who knows at this point, but if Trump sticks an “everybody else” rate of 15 or 20 per cent, it means we go from close trading partner to, relatively speaking, out in the cold.

Which is a shame for two reasons.

One, it represents a lost opportunity for the Albanese government, which save for a couple of phone calls and a fleeting interaction between Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd and the president at Mar-a-Lago, to go into bat for Australian exporters.

Again, the prime minister likely does not care too much, having thrown so much effort into closer ties with the Chinese government, which is for the moment far more likely to offer him a banquet than call him out.

But two, it also means that Australia is out of the cold as a new trading order develops.

Despite the predictions that Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs would pitch the world into a new depression, commerce has continued and in some ways the world economy has improved.

Under the new order that is emerging free trade is not an end in itself but rather a leverage point, and a more sophisticated government would have recognised this and used everything from uranium to critical minerals to our advantage.

That said, like Fabius, Albanese’s delaying tactics may wind up paying off, eventually.

As is always the case with delayers, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Originally published as Roman history warning for Albo as he ducks trade deal with Trump