Robert Craddock: Unthinkable election wins prove you can’t always trust the bookies

Anthony Albanese is a coal fire hot $1.18 favourite to retain government, but the pages of history show that there’s no such thing as an absolute certainty, writes Robert Craddock.

Peter Dutton may idolise John Howard but his election day inspiration must come from Steve Bracks, Brexit, Scott Morrison and – say it quietly – Donald Trump.

From the turbulent pages of history which insist that – just like horse racing – there’s no such thing as a certainty or a roughie which has no chance.

Anthony Albanese is a coal fire hot $1.18 favourite to retain government. That should mean has as much chance of being run down as Latrell Mitchell from Albanese’s beloved South Sydney Rabbitohs after a mid-field intercept.

But the above names prove there are select occasions – crazy, madhouse days when confusion reigns and months of strident predictions turn to dust – when the pollsters get it wrong.

“Peter Dutton is a $5 chance to win but back in 2019 Scott Morrison was even bigger odds ($7) and he beat Bill Shorten who was $1.12 … anything can happen,’’ said Tabcorp’s Gerard Daffy.

Bill Shorten lost to Scott Morrison before despite what the polls said.

The most dramatic loss in recent history came when Trump – like Dutton a $5 chance – beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 United States election in a result which left Irish bookmakers Paddy Power with crimson faces and an even redder bottom line.

Paddy Power was so convinced Clinton would win they paid out all bets on her - $2 million worth – three weeks before the election, claiming with swaggering disdain “Trump gave it a hell of a shot but his chances are as patchy as his tan.’’

Never shy to miss a chance for self-promotion, even at the expense of their own follies, Paddy Power declared after the election “we’ve been thumped by Trump!’’

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Pictures: Jay LaPrete, Brendan Smialowski

In terms of roughies turning the views of pundits and pollsters upside down, few stories were as dramatic as Bracks’ win for Labor in the 1999 Victorian state election, ousting shattered and stunned premier Jeff Kennett.

Daffy declared Bracks, at $15, “the greatest win by a political roughie ever.’’

When asked for an election-day reaction to the final Newspoll in The Australian suggesting the result would be knife-edged (which it was), Bracks quipped “I hope it’s right, but I think The Australian’s on drugs.’’

Channel 9 were so certain Kennett would win they inserted the Melbourne Storm’s 18-16 NRL preliminary final win over Parramatta for two full hours into the middle of their coverage.

But while Storm forward Richard Swain was crossing late in a thriller to provide a passage the Storm’s first grade final (which they won), there was even more incredible story evolving off-screen as Kennett told a function at the Hilton Hotel he was preparing to “get on my white charger and ride off into the sunset.’’

Big upsets produce big opportunities and there are some English punters who bought new homes by being an hour ahead of betting markets on the night of June 23, 2016, when Great Britain voted (by 52%-48%) to leave the European Union in what was known as the Brexit referendum.

When the polls closed at 10pm, the odds of the “Leave’’ vote being successful were 10-to-one – twice as big as Dutton’s – but in the early hours of the following morning there was massive drama when big gamblers beat the investment gurus to the stunning news that the “Leave’’ vote would be successful.

Annastacia Palaszczuk and Campbell Newman in a 2015 debate. Picture: Adam Head

Records of betting site Betfair showed millions of dollars was placed on the “Leave’’ result between 1am and 3am while foreign exchange markets were an hour or two away from acknowledging their world had been rocked.

Sometimes punters know best. Other times they are as confused as the rest of us.

In the 2015 Queensland State election Annastacia Palaszczuk ousted the Campbell Newman government by lifting Labor from nine to 44 seats.

Just as voting closed, Channel Nine’s nightly news bulletin ran a strip at the bottom of its screen saying “Exit polls tip shock Labor win.’’

But, for a full hour, Labor’s price stayed at a dismissive $5 as bookies and punters treated the exit polls with the suspicion of a Loch Ness Monster sighting, proving yet again that when it comes to gauging public opinion sometimes you just never know.

Originally published as Robert Craddock: Unthinkable election wins prove you can’t always trust the bookies