QLD election 2024: The five awkward truths we’ve learned

This election campaign has been about as illuminating as a wet match. However there are five things we have nonetheless learned.

Voters go to the polls on Saturday in the state election.

As is customary, this column has no wish to tell anyone how to vote. Everyone should take the time to weigh up what’s important to them, what matters in their own local area, and how the various candidates compare.

However, after three weeks of a somewhat dreary campaign, we make the following observations.

1. GAVEN VOTERS ARE FORTUNATE

Only one of 11 seats on the Gold Coast is reckoned to be a real contest – the seat of Gaven held by Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon.

Part of the reason it is such a tight race stems from the quality of the candidates. Ms Scanlon is undoubtedly one of Labor’s star performers and, in deep contrast to her predecessor, has been a whirlwind of activity since being elevated to her current position. She should have been promoted sooner.

However she is being given a real run for her money by the LNP’s Bianca Stone, who has worked tirelessly since securing the party’s nomination.

Voters in some other Gold Coast electorates might look wistfully at the choice available to their neighbours in Gaven.

Meaghan Scanlon and Bianca Stone are locked in a titanic battle in Gaven. Picture: Glenn Hampson.

2. A CHOICE BETWEEN THE KNOWN AND THE UNKNOWN

Almost the standout feature of the campaign has been the reluctance of the LNP to outline firm policy positions on issues that stir most controversy.

That makes things difficult for voters, not least because the party are odds on with bookies to form government.

Anyone wanting to know what they are minded to do regarding matters such as the 2032 Olympic Stadium, for example, are out of luck. That will be decided after a much-vaunted 100-day review. Clarity on light rail stage four to the Airport will also only supposedly emerge after a 100-day review process.

Labor, by contrast, have not just made their positions clear on everything, but have put almost every goodie imaginable on the table, from 50 cent fares (which the LNP have now also promised to keep) to, literally free lunches.

In a way it’s a choice between the known – which you either approve or disapprove of – or a shot in the dark in the hopes that whatever the LNP ultimately provide is more to your liking.

Crime has been a focus in this election campaign.

3. CRIME IS THE ULTIMATE POLITICAL FOOTBALL

This column takes everything that politicians say about crime and policing with a heavy dose of salt.

Politicians speaking like they can make crime go away is like someone promising the sun will always shine. It just doesn’t wash.

There are clearly issues. The changing nature of Burleigh Heads has brought trouble to that area. Domestic violence remains a terrible scourge, contributing enormously to a punishing workload on frontline police.

But it’s worth trying to keep a little perspective – for crimes that are not domestic violence related, the Gold Coast especially remains by some way one of the safest places on the planet you could possibly choose to live.

And I don’t just mean more deprived countries where crime is rampant. We see less than in most comparable western countries in Europe and North America.

Still, to listen to some people, you’d assume, to use the old cliche, that crime is wildly “out of control”.

Carefully chosen statistics are put forward to bolster the argument. But crime statistics are notoriously rubbery and open to manipulation. This column is always wary of such statistics, especially if they do not account for important context such as population growth.

The reality, even if most do not want to admit it, is that our police force on the Gold Coast is achieving enormous success and in recent months the rate of crime has actually been trending downwards.

The money is flowing now – but what about after the election?

4. WHO IS PAYING FOR IT ALL?

In fairness to the LNP, one of the key reasons they may not be able to give firm commitments in many areas until they enter office is because they don’t yet have access to the books.

It’s easy to make the case for rail or roads or flashy new stadiums.

But is there a chance that when newly minted ministers head to their departments the mandarins glumly inform them that there’s no money left?

On the flip side, Labor appears happy to spend like that state has just struck oil. Electricity rebates, reductions to rego, police beats, school lunches – a party that spent so long jacking up the cost of everything suddenly seems to be behaving like Richard Pryor in Brewster’s Millions.

Perhaps they themselves don’t believe they will be returned to power, and know the spending commitments will wedge their opponents by leaving them with the unenviable task of winding it all back. That, of course, opens the chance for Labor to continue to cast their opponents as the party of austerity and cuts – they have still not stopped talking about the Newman government in that light.

But it’s our money they’re playing with. Voters should view it all with a jaundiced eye.

5. NOT IN THE PLAN

Finally, there is no question that the most difficult issue for the LNP in this election campaign has been the abortion one.

It will not have escaped the attention of voters that no variation of the question “Will abortion laws change under an LNP government” asked of party candidates could elicit a straight yes or no answer.

Instead, like an army of robots, they all responded with the same “it’s not in our plan” line.

Lots of things are not in the plans of parties when they are running for election that subsequently become matters to be dealt with when they are in power.

Voters hate this kind of wordplay from politicians. Despite the backflip by Robbie Katter yesterday on his vow to repeal abortion laws, the way this issue has been handled may well cost the LNP votes on Saturday.

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