Opinion: Don’t count out Steven Miles in Qld election just yet

Don’t bet on Steven Miles and Labor being gone for all money at this year’s Queensland election – this contest is far from over, writes Cameron Milner. VOTE IN OUR POLL

Premier Steven Miles and Labor are gone for all money come the October 26 general election? Don’t bet on it – because while there is without doubt a mood for change in Queensland with voters rightly angry at the cost-of-living pressure they are under, this contest is far from over.

There’s a roiling volatility within the Queensland electorate at the moment. Queenslanders, eternal optimists, are concerned with where their state is heading.

And while the voters of Inala and Ipswich West sent Labor a message at the by-elections last month, by-elections are not determinants of future general elections. John Howard lost the Ryan by-election in February 2001 and won the general election in September because he listened and actively fixed the concerns of electors.

So it’s not about what just happened as to what you do next that determines your electoral future. The leader and party with a plan to quell that anger and ride the wave of electoral demand for a better way will win.

The joy of winning the Olympics for 2032 after the depths of Covid-19 despair has receded as the reality of not having enough houses for our population sees the nice-to-haves set aside for the need-to-haves. The major party leader that best represents a plan to deliver the basics – shelter, personal security and job security – will I think win in October.

That’s why it’s still such an open race for October.

Crisafulli suffers from thinking being non-controversial and small target will be sufficient to get him elected. I think that era is over and what Queenslanders want is a leader, not a follower. His failure to embrace an alternative to Miles’s “Aldi Olympics” shows too much political caution.

Anthony Albanese flopped across the line at the last federal election against a deeply unpopular incumbent in Scott Morrison by being a small target, but I’m not sure Premier Miles is actually anywhere near that unpopular – or that voters don’t want to see a plan for Queensland. Queenslanders vote for leaders, not followers.

Despite the swings in the by-elections and all the issues of government indecision and delay – coupled with genuine issues of youth crime – the opinion polling points still to a minority Crisafulli government at best.

Robbie Katter and his party stand currently as kingmakers for the next premier of Queensland.

Steven Miles is a genuinely likeable guy. I’ve known him for close on 30 years. You can’t fault his commitment to hard work, admitting a mistake if a better solution is presented, and having a real empathy for Queenslanders doing it tough.

Along with his Deputy Premier and Treasurer, Cameron Dick, he is not about to die wondering. They have cleared the decks on the Olympics and are clear-eyed about the challenges.

Crime is a strength for the LNP. But it is debatable how many more votes it now shifts. On health, Minister Shannon Fentiman has this covered for Labor, having cauterised that wound.

So what is the best campaign plan for Labor from here? Frankly, it’s down to better economic management and winning a seat-by-seat contest.

Labor’s majority is built on Brisbane and the regional cities in equal parts. Local regional MPs have been entrenching for years and are strong local champions for their communities.

The strength for Labor in Brisbane has been holding areas that vote Liberal in both federal and council elections. Think Bart Mellish in Aspley, Jess Pugh in Mount Ommaney, or Corrine McMillan in Mansfield.

The secret sauce in each of these has been voters being appalled at the grubby preference deal the LNP has done with Pauline Hansons extremist One Nation.

Ipswich West was only won by the LNP on One Nation preferences. I guarantee the LNP will once again cut a deal with Pauline Hanson, as much to give James Ashby any chance in Keppel. That very act revolts many in their voting base. Senator Hanson does not play well in Hamilton.

So the election is a lot more in the balance than some might think. Labor still has time and a critical State Budget to come to unleash the full force of multiple record surpluses to tackle housing supply, infrastructure builds and strengthen our economy.

Crisafulli may have peaked prematurely, just as Kim Beazley did in Ryan.

He should also take heed of the political rule that real power isn’t given, it’s taken.

Being a follower and simply agreeing with the other guy’s big ideas doesn’t make you a leader. Queensland deserves a contest of ideas to earn our vote from both major parties.

Premier Miles still has more than enough time to drive down the cost of living and drive up state’s prosperity.

It’s game on for October and the winner will be Queenslanders given a genuine choice for the next four years.

Cameron Milner is a former state secretary of the Labor Party

Originally published as Opinion: Don’t count out Steven Miles in Qld election just yet