Editorial: Good news too little too late to save Albo?

Voters are turning on the Prime Minister, and the expected good economic news might not be enough to save him, writes the editor.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last week

Last year, or perhaps even before then, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese came up with a very sensible strategy about calling the election.

He would wait for good economic news – essentially for interest rates to fall – before he pulled the trigger, so he could campaign that his government had helped Australians weather the financial storm and they could now take advantage of the better times ahead.

But with inflation being more stubborn than most had anticipated, those better times were pushed back – from the second half of 2024, to before Christmas, and now, almost certainly it appears, to tomorrow.

And while Mr Albanese was under no obligation to call the election early, the delays have played into the Coalition narrative of a weak and indecisive leader, as well as giving them extra time to ask voters the question: “Are you better off now than you were three years ago?”

And as exclusive election polling in The Sunday Mail and The Courier-Mail today shows, voters are turning on the Prime Minister, and the expected good economic news might not be enough to save him.

It might be a case of too little, too late.

Yesterday’s RedBridge polling showed just one-third of voters planned to support Labor in the upcoming election – the same primary vote as 2022 but this time seeing a reversal of the two-party-preferred vote – with Labor on track to lose 48-52 per cent this time.

It means that probably the only way Labor would be able to form government would be by doing a deal with the Greens – something that would terrify most Australians and even many
Labor voters.

Significantly, Labor’s performance on cost of living was seen as poor by 27 per cent of respondents, and very poor by a massive 40 per cent. On the issue of housing, it was even worse.

And the figures today offer no reprieve, with the majority of people saying that they think Australia is heading in the wrong direction. And the more financial stress voters were under, the more they agreed with that sentiment.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the situation is worst in Queensland, where just 21 per cent of voters think the nation is heading in the right direction.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said that Labor would be hoping this week’s mooted RBA
interest rate cut would lighten the nation’s mood.

But tellingly he added: “A single rate cut might lift Labor’s morale, but it’s unlikely to ease the deeper economic pain felt by the voters that will determine the upcoming election.”

The big four banks have already factored in a 25 basis point cut – making it as close to a sure thing as you can get in economics. It will mean homeowners with a typical mortgage save about $100 a month, no small thing in a
cost-of-living crisis.

Economist Saul Eslake said there would now be a series of cuts – probably three – this year, returning the official rate to a more neutral position of 3.5 per cent.

It’s good news for mortgage holders, but it seems they will be voting with the memories of the pain of 2024 fresh in their minds, not the relief that 2025 is now promising.

PROBLEM WON’T GO AWAY

Our exclusive report today that adults are being held in watch houses meant solely for kids highlights an issue that is only going to get worse for this “tough on crime” government.

Last week at least 10 adults were held in the same facility as children at the Caboolture watch house.

Just as worrying is the fact that some children are spending as long as 18 days in the watch house waiting to progress through the juvenile justice system.

It comes as adult watch houses reach capacity and accommodation for those accused of and convicted of crimes becomes harder to come by.

The Lockyer Valley Correctional Centre – a 1500-bed facility at Gatton that will become the state’s biggest prison – was meant to have opened by 2023, but is still under construction.

Likewise the 76-bed youth remand facility at Wacol was meant to have opened late last year, but we are still waiting.

Queenslanders are on board with Premier David Crisafulli’s adult crime, adult time laws, and his tough on crime approach.

But for it to work there needs to be enough magistrates and judges to hear cases and adequate detention facilities to deal with a probable prison population explosion as bail is denied in a greater number of cases.

In the 18th-century Britain dealt with a spiralling prison population by first housing them in hulks, and then transporting them to Australia.

Mr Crisafulli needs to come up with a more modern solution.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here

Originally published as Editorial: Good news too little too late to save Albo?