Analysis: Why narrow win in leadership spill does no favours for under-siege PM Malcolm Turnbull

MALCOLM Turnbull has survived today’s spill of the Liberal Party leadership and will remain Prime Minister for now. But his authority is fatally damaged and his time is running out if history holds true, writes Andrew Potts.

IT was all over in a matter of minutes and Malcolm Turnbull emerged victorious against sometimes Gold Coaster Peter Dutton.

But Mr Turnbull will take little solace from the results of ‘LibSpill 3’ — a 48-35 split which saw the incumbent PM secure 57 per cent of the vote — less than a supermajority of 60 per cent.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull arrives at a party room meeting at Parliament House in Canberra, Tuesday, August 21, 2018. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

It’s the worst showing of an incumbent PM to survive a spill in the orgy of leadership changes which have engulfed our Canberra politicians in the past decade.

Comparatively, Julia Gillard secured 69.6 per cent of the Labor caucus in 2012 against her errant Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd while Bob Hawke got 60 per cent against Paul Keating back in 1991.

Bob Hawke won the June 1991 leadership spill but was removed as PM six months later.

Mr Turnbull reportedly made a unity themed pitch to the party room before the vote and his supporters have today tried to put a good spin on the result.

But history shows us that no incumbent prime minister has recovered after a leadership spill.

Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd

Hawke lost to Keating six months later while Gillard fell on her sword and called a spill in mid-2013 which saw Mr Rudd retake the nation’s top job.

Tony Abbott won a spill against an empty chair in early 2015 only to find himself dumped by the party in favour of Mr Turnbull in less than a year.

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Chief government whip Nola Marino speaks to the media to declare the result of the leadership spill at Parliament House in Canberra. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

Indeed the forces backing Mr Dutton, the now former Immigration and Home Affairs Minister, are already pledging to have another go, bolstered by the expectedly strong result.

The Prime Minister has been politically kneecapped and few believe he can recover, with an election due by May 19.

It’s not good news with the polls showing Labor remains in front.

Either by the hand of his party or by the electorate, the Prime Minister’s date with destiny is coming.