Sydney decides: Pittwater, Hornsby and Epping by-elections
The teal wave that helped oust the federal Coalition in 2022 has engulfed the northern beaches’ electorate of Pittwater at Saturday’s by-election. The Libs will hold onto Epping and Hornsby.
NSW
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The Liberals are bracing for the devastating loss of the prized northern beaches seat of Pittwater, with the “teal wave” that helped oust the Morrison government at the last federal election set to claim the state seat.
At 8.30pm at almost every polling booth across the electorate, Climate-200 backed independent candidate Jacqui Scruby was smashing Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn.
Most Liberals were privately conceding defeat, although others were noting the almost 40 per cent of pre-poll and postals yet to be counted.
Over at Avalon Beach Surf Life Saving Club, Ms Scruby all but declared a victory on Saturday night, saying “the results tonight definitely show that Pittwater wanted a different way of doing politics”.
“With my independent voice I can really bring issues to the parliament and really push the major parties to do better,” she said.
One senior Liberal who declared the seat “gone” blamed the circumstances in which former Liberal MP Rory Amon had resigned for the result, along with brand damage from the council nominations fiasco.
“We’ve been smashed,” the source said. “This was a referendum on Rory.”
A shock by-election was needed on the northern beaches in Pittwater to replace Amon, who quit parliament in August after he was charged with a series of child sex offences.
He has vowed to defend the allegations.
NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman told supporters on Saturday night everyone had always known “what a challenging proposition” it was going to be in Pittwater.
But in seats such as Epping and Hornsby where there were “not the sorts of problems” there were in Pittwater, the party had experienced “huge swings” towards it, he said.
“Don’t be under any illusion, where we haven’t had the sorts of problems we’ve had in Pittwater, our brand and our values remain enormously and incredibly strong,” he said.
In a statement released on Saturday night, Mr Speakman stopped short of conceding defeat, but declared: “The path to victory in Pittwater now looks extremely difficult”.
“The circumstances of the former member’s resignation, and the disappointment of failure to nominate candidates in the Northern Beaches Council elections, have clearly had their toll.”
The “teals” were accused of running an aggressive campaign, focusing on the fact Ms Ryburn was not technically a “local” as she lived just outside the electorate.
Liberal insiders were concerned that Pittwater Libertarian Party candidate Doug Rennie would grab vital conservative votes away from Ms Ryburn. Almost every Liberal MP helped out on Saturday, with the majority pouring into Pittwater.
Even renegade Nationals MP Wes Fang was spied wearing a blue Liberal T-shirt.
An analysis of the early votes suggested a large number of Green and Labor votes were being scooped up by Ms Scruby, given neither party put up a candidate.
Over in Hornsby and Epping, Liberal candidates James Wallace and Monica Tudehope looked set to join the Coalition state parliamentary team after easily winning the seats – in the case of Ms Tudehope, joining her father Damien Tudehope in Opposition after securing 54.9 per cent of the vote late on Saturday night.
Mr Tudehope said it was the first time that a father-daughter team had ever been elected into parliament.
“I’m very proud of her, she’s a standout talent in her own right,” he said. “She will make a huge difference.”
It is understood the swing to the Liberals in Epping was well over 10 per cent.
Ms Tudehope said she was very happy with the result.
Meanwhile, early projections suggest the Liberal Party will retain the seat of Hornsby, with candidate James Wallace maintaining an almost 51 per cent lead of all votes.
Read below for details on each seat
PITTWATER
The once blue-ribbon Liberal northern beaches’ electorate is set for a “teal” takeover based on counting projections in the Pittwater by-election on Saturday night.
Community independent, Jacqui Scruby was on track for victory in the surprise poll to replace former Liberal MP Rory Amon, with 56 per cent of first preference votes.
Scruby, who was tipped to grab the seat from the Liberals after she came within 600 votes of victory at the state general election in March last year, was ahead of her Liberal opponent, with 18,300 votes out of the 34,000 counted up to 8.45pm.
About two-thirds of the vote has been counted.
The Liberals had been counting on former Northern Beaches Deputy mayor, Georgia Ryburn, who lives just outside the electorate, to retain the seat that is usually regarded as a safe conservative win. She had attracted 39.9pc of the vote – 14,400.
On a two-party preferred basis, the independent had 55.4pc of the vote, compared with the Liberal’s 44.6.
Liberal insiders were concerned that Libertarian Party candidate, Doug Rennie, could grab vital conservative votes away from Ms Ryburn. He’s gained 1300 votes.
The Labor Party chose not to contest the by-election.
At a party, in the Avalon Beach Surf Life Saving Club, to celebrate her successful campaign, Scruby said the result were looking positive that she would become the first female independent MP for Pittwater.
“The results tonight definitely show that Pittwater wanted a different way of doing politics,” she told hundreds of cheering supporters.
“It’s about having an independent voice in NSW parliament on issues that are broader than just this electorate, and often it’s issues the major parties don’t touch, whether it’s the environment, whether it’s health.
“With my independent voice I can really bring issues to the parliament and really push the major parties to do better.”
During the campaign the two major candidates clashed over who would be the most effective MP if elected to NSW parliament.
Ms Scruby argued she would be in a stronger bargaining position to win improved funding and infrastructure for the electorate because she would join an influential crossbench in a parliament with a minority Labor government.
But Ms Ryburn reckoned, that if elected, she would be part of a strong Opposition that had a track record of delivering for Pittwater.
And in what became dubbed the “battle of the locals" Ms Scruby focused on the fact that Ms Ryburn lived outside the seat, in Frenchs Forest.
Ms Ryburn, however, reminded voters that as deputy mayor, she had a strong link with Pittwater and that her family had lived on the northern beaches for four generations.
Ms Scruby, who predicted on Saturday that the result would be tight, said that the voters of Pittwater “understand the opportunity we have ahead of us … with an independent in a minority government, Liberals in opposition”.
“I’m the best person to get the job done, including (finishing the) Mona Vale Rd (upgrade).
“I think we saw at the last election (March 2023) that most people did vote for change.
“People are feeling disenfranchised and disappointed by the current state of the NSW Liberal Party.
“People here are ready for a different way of doing politics. . . . they want representation that’s not focused on party politics, but focused on people and communities.”
Ms Scruby also doubled down on the issue of Ms Ryburn living outside of Pittwater.
“As a community independent, I feel it’s really important to live in the electorate you represent.
“Manly isn’t Mona Vale, Frenchs Forest isn’t Duffys Forest.
“You need to be embedded in the community”. ”
On Saturday Ms Ryburn, enlisted the help of her proud parents Meredith and Peter Downey, to urge locals to vote for their daughter.
Sporting stickers, “Georgia’s Mum” and “Georgia’s Dad”, they were handing out how-to-vote pamphlets at the Ted Blackwood Community Centre in Warriewood.
Mr Downey, the principal at Oxford Falls Grammar School, and who has worked at schools in Dee Why and Warriewood, said he knew about “every third person” lining up to vote.
“We are part of her support crew,” Mr Downey said. “We’ve been doing a lot of childcare to help support Georgia (who has two small children),” he said.
“The Ryburns and the Downeys have been packing down together to allow her to get out campaign. But she’s still home for dinner with the kids every night.”
Bruce Baird, a Liberal Party legend, and a former NSW and federal government minister — and not to mention father of former NSW Coalition Premier, Mike Baird — was helping urge voters to put a number “1” on the ballot paper for Georgia Ryburn.
Even renegade NSW Nationals Upper House MP Wes Fang lent a hand to help the Liberals. He was spotted, wearing a Georgia Ryburn t-shirt, wooing voters at Warriewood.
Community independent candidate Jacqui Scruby voted at the Ted Blackwood Community Centre at Warriewood, with her keenly interested daughters watching on.
EPPING
The Liberal Party are likely to retain Epping with Monica Tudehope collecting 54.9 per cent of total votes late on Saturday evening.
Greens’ Duncan Voyage has remained in second with about 23.5 per cent of votes so far, while Independent candidate Edgar Lu trails in third with 10.12 per cent and Dezhong (Jerry) Wang at 5 per cent.
Libertarian Party’s Rob Cribb has raked in the least votes at 2.82 per cent.
Residents across Epping took to polls on Saturday to determine who will be their next state representative after the resignation of former NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet.
There are five candidates running for the traditionally safe Liberal seat including Liberal candidate and Pennant Hills resident Monica Tudehope who is tipped to take up the mantle from her predecessor.
Greens’ Duncan Voyage, Libertarian Party’s Rob Cribb and Independent candidates Dezhong Wang and YouTube sensation Edgar Lu aka ‘Sydney Daddy’ have also put their hand up to contest the seat.
There is no Labor candidate.
On Saturday, Ms Tudehope was out with a full entourage of Liberal supporters including Parramatta councillors Carla Kassab and Sreeni Pillamarri as well as Liberal MP for Berowra Julian Leeser.
Ms Tudehope said while the district has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold she wasn’t taking their votes for granted.
“I’ve been talking to as many people as possible to get their support and earn their vote,” she said.
“Cost of living is the number one concern here, and then there a local issues like increased density and concerns about traffic.”
Ms Tudehope said investing in education would be another priority for her.
At Boronia Grove Community Centre, Libertarian Party candidate Mr Cribb said he was hoping to get a high number of primary votes.
“It’s unlikely that I will win, but the real purpose of a minor party running in an election like this is to send a message to the major parties that they’re losing their base,” he said
“And I think the Liberal Party may start losing their base to parties like ours.
“This is to send the Liberal Party a message that they need to reconfigure themselves and stop pitching so much to the undecided centre and to respect their base otherwise they’ll lose them.”
Meanwhile, fleets of volunteers dressed in Edgar Lu’s red shirts have stationed themselves at booths across the district.
Volunteer Samuel Huang, 50, said he drove from Ashfield to Epping Public School to help show support for his favourite YouTuber.
“I’m actually not from this area but I agree with a lot of (Edgar’s) opinions. He’s very popular on YouTube and I think a lot of the volunteers here today are fans of his videos,” Mr Huang said.
About one-third of Epping’s population hails from China, however Mr Huang said Mr Lu’s campaign of better funding for education had a “universal” appeal.
“I don’t think it’s fair to say that he’s popular just because he’s Chinese, everyone wants better education for their children.”
Mr Lu said volunteers had even travelled from Melbourne to show their support for him.
“It’s very humbling,” he said.
“Even though I don’t believe in identity politics, I can see why so many people have come out today to help me, to vote for me.
“It’s because they’re just like me — they’re migrant families who came to Australia to give their children a fair go. That’s what Australia is about, a fair go.”
Long time resident Warwick Parsons, 68, said he would be voting Liberal.
“I’ve lived in Epping almost all my life,” Mr Parsons said.
“I usually vote Liberal 90 per cent of the time unless I’m not happy with them. But I don’t think anyone is entirely happy with any of the parties. I don’t think anyone has been particularly happy with the major parties for some time now.
“But even so, I would rather see a Liberal here than a Labor or a Green.”
But newer residents like university student Daniel Welch said issues like climate change and education were the reasons why they’re voting for the independents and Greens.
“I’ve only recently moved here, I’ve been here for about a year,” Mr Welch, 22, said.
“I support their views on climate change, I’ve seen a lot of the effects on education as well through my own schooling so it’s something I support pretty strongly.”
NDIS support worker and personal trainer Jeremy Amin said he would be voting for the Libertarian Party.
A former Labor supporter, Mr Amin said he admired the Libertarian Party’s policies more than the major parties.
“They’re all about freedom. They have a stance that, to me, makes the most intuitive sense when it comes to the nature of governments,” he said.
Mr Amin said overdevelopment and road maintenance were issues he would like to see tackled.
“There are a lot of high-rise apartment blocks being put up in Carlingford and I think it’s happening a little bit too fast,” he said.
“I would rather that the city gets built out rather than up. I personally drive a car so having nice roads is pretty important.”
HORNSBY
Early projections suggest the Liberal party will retain the seat of Hornsby, with candidate James Wallace maintaining an almost 51 per cent lead of all votes.
Greens candidate Tania Salitra remains in second place with just over 26 per cent of all votes counted and One Nation candidate Steve Busch remains in third place with five per cent of all votes - narrowly beating independent Brendan Clarke with 4.37 per cent.
The Hornsby by-election has nine candidates running in the election from the Liberal Party, the Greens, the Sustainable Australia Party, the Animal Justice Party, the Libertarian party, One Nation and three independents. The Labor Party chose not to enter the contest.
The electorate is deemed a safe Liberal seat, with candidate James Wallace tipped to take over from his predecessor, Liberal MP Matt Kean.
Mr Kean announced his resignation from state parliament in June to pursue a career in the energy sector, which triggered the by election.
The candidates have previously spoken about some of the biggest issues facing voters, including cost of living and high-density housing, and how they intend to tackle them if elected.
By early afternoon on Saturday, polling booths across the electorate appeared quiet and empty with most voters having attended in the morning.
But grey skies looming overhead was not enough to deter some voters.
At the Arcadia Community Hall, in the electorate’s north, voter Greg Foulis said he voted for Liberal candidate James Wallace.
“I think Matt (Kean) was labelled as ‘middle of the road’ … particularly with progressive discussions around environmental issues, (such as) climate change and environmental issues, I think that’s the differentiation that Matt’s brought to parliament, and I’d like to see that continue.”
Young voter Brooke Parker said she voted for One National Candidate Steve Busch after hearing he intended to do something about rising petrol prices.
“I’ve got a big car, and it’s a $1.94 here, but 30 minutes away I pay a $1.55,” she said.
At Berowra State School, Sharon Watts and Warren Gibson both voted for Liberal candidate James Wallace.
Ms Watts said there was no particular reason why she voted Liberal other than Mr Wallace came from a familiar party.
The grandmother said regardless of who was elected, she would really like to see more “family orientated” development in the area.
“The old side of Hornsby, (it) would be nice to see (more) cafes … there’s not a lot around this area,” she said.
Mr Gibson said this part of Hornsby was missing out on major development projects seen in other parts of greater Sydney.
“There’s land opportunities (here) yet it’s all happening out west, but on this side of the bridge is just missing out … literally getting forgotten about,” he said.
“Look at what’s happening out at Baulkham Hills and Kellyville, all out that way there’s restaurants, there’s people, there’s metros, there’s all this development … we could do with some more development.”
At Hornsby North Public School, the rain did not deter some last minute voters.
One local, who asked not to be named, said she voted for the Greens because she felt they had the best environmental policy.
“I think that they also support public education, and although Matt Kean was a very good local member I think the Liberal Party is moving too far to the right and so I think that the Greens are the best protectors of the environment in Hornsby,” she said.
Gayan Rathnayaka and Nisa Nara both voted for James Wallace.
Mr Rahnayaka said this was because he aligned more with the Liberal Party on social issues.
He said housing and affordability were the biggest issues impacting residents, not just locally but across the country, and he hoped whoever was elected would help tackle this.
“Apart from that, things are more expensive because of the recession, so the Government should focus on helping the people.”
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Originally published as Sydney decides: Pittwater, Hornsby and Epping by-elections
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