Samantha Maiden: Signs points to the Voice referendum being lost, but will it hurt the PM?

Some senior Labor figures believe a defeat might be the best thing that can happen to the PM, writes Samantha Maiden.

Will Anthony Albanese be attending a wedding or a funeral for the Voice on October 14?

It is too early to say with any great certainty, but the smart money right now is on him losing.

Some of his colleagues who are hoping for a win but preparing for defeat think it could be the best thing that ever happens to him, just as an aside, but more of that later.

First, the campaign launch. It was a sombre affair as the Prime Minister unveiled the worst kept secret in Australian politics, the date of the referendum.

If this was a party you would hate to see the wake. There’s no doubt it’s an issue that the Prime Minister cares deeply about.

Back in March, he choked back tears repeatedly as he made a historic announcement on the wording of the referendum.

“This moment has been a very long time in the making. It’s a simple matter from the heart,’’ he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Yes campaign launch in Adelaide. Picture: James Elsby/Getty

“This is a modest request. I say to Australia; don’t miss it. This is a real opportunity.”

Since that press conference, support for the Voice has gone backwards.

The reasons aren’t difficult to discern. The sales pitch for the Yes vote is overblown, suggesting it will magically cure intractable problems that haven’t been fixed for years.

There’s also division in the ranks of First Nations leaders, with everyone from Lidia Thorpe to Jacinta Price and Warren Mundine lining up for the No campaign.

So what message is working for the Yes campaign?

In a rallying call for change that outgunned the Prime Minister’s plea, SA premier Peter Malinauskas said South Australians had “always been ready to lead, particularly when it comes to taking the aspiration of the fair-go and transforming it into a living truth”.

“That’s why this was the first place anywhere in the world to adopt universal franchise, giving the women the right to vote and the ability to run for parliament,’’ he said.

“That’s why this is the first state to outlaw discrimination on the basis of race or ethnicity.

“That’s why this was the first state to decriminalise homosexuality.

“That’s why we were the first state to legislate on Aboriginal land rights.”

Mr Malinauskas said that what sets Australia apart from other countries was an ethos of egalitarianism.

“What sets us apart isn’t mineral wealth, sustained economic growth, or natural beauty. It’s something deep within our national character,’’ he said.

“We don’t celebrate the primacy of the individual in the way they do in the United States, nor do we identify with the deference the English pay to their establishment. Our national identity is carved from an ethos of egalitarianism, our fundamental sense of fairness. An affection that extends beyond those to whom we are related.

“Our national identity is found in each other. It’s a unique, liberating trait.”

The SA Premier said he did not know what the outcome of this referendum would be.

But in a powerful moment, he predicted Australians would rise to the challenge.

“But we do know this generation of Australians are descendants of all those who have chosen to act with generosity and foresight before us,’’ he said.

“If our forefathers and mothers can say yes to universal franchise, if our great grandparents can say yes to waves of migration, if our grandparents can say yes in 1967. If our parents can say yes to land rights, then this generation is capable of saying yes to an advisory committee.”

Meanwhile, Warren Mundine cruelly suggested that the Yes campaign is run by happy clappers, which is unkind, but has a certain ring of truth given the kumbaya vibes at the Adelaide launch.

Mr Mundine, a leading advocate for the No vote campaign, blasted the Prime Minister at a press conference shortly afterwards, suggesting he was wasting millions of dollars on the vote better spent in local communities.

“And we will not allow the Prime Minister and this referendum to divide our country along the lines of race within our constitution,‘’ Mr Mundine said.

“This thing is about division and dividing this country and the racial abuse that we’ve been hearing over the last few months.

“This Prime Minister from day one had attacked people who had a different opinion to him, calling them names.

“He’s the one who started this, he’s the one who brought it out. And as he thinks that the Voice is the answer.

“I’m very angry about this because I and my family grew up under the segregation laws in the 1950s and 60s.

“I will swear on my mother and father’s grave that I will fight this.”

So, there you have it. It’s going to be ugly, deeply personal and unpleasant.

But if Anthony Albanese loses this fight, his colleagues don’t think it will take any serious paint off him as Prime Minister, “unless he sulks about it”, according to one Labor frontbencher.

And if it reinforces the lesson that prime ministers should be wary of assuming voters will always love you and do as instructed, it might just be the best thing he learns.

Originally published as Samantha Maiden: Signs points to the Voice referendum being lost, but will it hurt the PM?