‘Peak soon’: Australia’s Covid-19 wave predicted to be ‘short and sharp’

Australia is battling yet another wave of Covid-19. As Christmas fast approaches, the question remains: Will your holiday plans be derailed?

Australia is battling yet another wave of Covid-19, but as Christmas fast approaches, will we be able to keep our holiday plans in tact?

Covid cases in NSW and Victoria have recently doubled in just a fortnight, while hospitalisations have jumped by more than 20 per cent in Queensland.

Health authorities in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and the ACT have strongly recommended a return to wearing masks in public indoor areas and on public transport but have shied away from reintroducing mandates.

But leading public health authorities confidently forecast a short, sharp spread this time, which may taper off soon.

Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly expects the latest wave to be short-lived, labelled the recent slew of variants, including the XXB. 1, the “grandchildren of Omicron”.

CChief Medical Officer Paul Kelly expects the fourth wave to dip soon. Picture: Martin Ollman

“If it ends up being similar to Singapore, and I believe it will, then it should peak soon and drop quickly,” he predicted earlier this week.

“I fully expect that we’re nearing the middle of this wave.

“Hospitalisations are rising, but not largely so right across the country.”

Others agree – James Wood, Associate Professor in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases at UNSW Sydney, said the “most likely” scenario is the wave will peak by Christmas.

“In my own work for NSW Health, I am currently projecting a peak in NSW for the first week of December,” he said.

“But these predictions are uncertain because it is still difficult to estimate the level of protection against infection in our population, despite impressive near real-time laboratory science that is helping to characterise this.”

Dr Wood is confident the recent Singapore wave of the XBB. 1 variant can guide Australian forecasts.

Case numbers show Australia's fourth Covid wave in comparison

“This wave was short and sharp, peaking around October 18 and then dropping back almost to pre-wave levels by November 12,” he said.

“Singapore has also seen a significant increase in hospitalisations, primarily in people aged above 70.

“However cumulative cases, admissions and deaths are tracking to be about half those of their BA. 5 wave, with no signs of increased severity.”

Dr wood said the scaling back of reporting mandates and isolation rules has likely led to fewer Rats being officially reported – meaning a smaller fraction of community infections are being recorded now than in previous waves.

As for whether or not Australians can expect regular waves? Dr Wood says we may begin to see them slowly in the coming years.

“Beyond this year, I’m encouraged by the shift in pattern from single variants causing waves to the evolving variant soup. This evolution has been very rapid recently, but there are signs this may slow considerably in 2023,” he said.

NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and the ACT have strongly recommended a return to wearing masks in public. Picture: David Clark

“Firstly, the rate at which mutations occur is proportional to how much virus is circulating. The enormous number of Covid infections across this year means that in 2022 this change has happened quickly, but with each wave getting smaller, this rate of change should slow.

“The recent variant soup evolution may also be a positive sign. The different variants in the soup have all gained a transmission advantage following the same immune-escape strategy.”

And if you are infected with a new variant, Dr Wood said you would have better protection against “the rest of the soup”.

“The absence of big mutational jumps in dominant variants suggests SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes Covid, may now be entering a period of slower, more continuous evolution – this is what we see for seasonal influenza,” he said.

Originally published as ‘Peak soon’: Australia’s Covid-19 wave predicted to be ‘short and sharp’