Queensland’s big new group of voters
Campaign Confidential: A quantum shift in Queensland’s population is set to play a part in the May 21 poll. See how.
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Go west (with the appropriate paperwork)
THE campaign trail is often referred to by travelling media as the “magical mystery tour” – most of the time, reporters have no idea where planes will land or what time zone they’ll be in. The PM was in Perth on Monday making defence and housing announcements, but there was no keeping WA a secret – before leaving Sydney, media had to fill out a G2G pass to enable them to enter the wild wild west. Upon landing, media were met by police and made to sign in to the state: remember QR codes? We hope the press pack remembered to bring extra face masks as they’re still mandatory in all indoor venues in WA. The man behind the Covid rules – Premier Mark McGowan – won’t meet with Scott Morrison during this trip west.
Kooyong capers
BETTING markets don’t seem convinced, at least not yet, by suggestions Josh Frydenberg might be about to lose Kooyong. On Monday, independent candidate Dr Monique Ryan released polling which showed she had the seat all but sewn up, with 59 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote. But on Sportsbet the Federal Treasurer is still the odds-on favourite to be the next Opposition Leader, at $2.75. Interestingly, Labor’s Tanya Plibersek is now not far behind, at $2.80, while Peter Dutton has dropped back to $3.15.
ScoMo’s speaker slip-up
SCOTT Morrison’s bizarre slip-up on Easter Sunday, calling a reporter “Mr Speaker” several times during a press conference, raised some eyebrows. Was this some sort of Freudian slip, or a simple stumble from a man who’s probably sleep-deprived after a gruelling week on the campaign trail? Communications expert Michael Kelly told Campaign Confidential it looked as if the PM was using a standard “riff”, but one that just happened to be inappropriate for the situation. “With all the reporters peppering him with questions, it’s just like the opposition heckling him in parliament. That was the cue, and then the riff just came out,” Mr Kelly said. And as for the PM’s performance generally on the campaign trail so far? “He’s very fluent. Nothing seems to phase him. Par for the course.”
Queensland and the maverick factor
THEY’RE dubbing it the “mavericks’ debate”: Clive Palmer, Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter and Campbell Newman sharing a stage in a Gold Coast pub for a special Sky News event hosted by Paul Murray on Tuesday. While it promises to be lively viewing, it does raise the question: why do so many of Australia’s political mavericks seem to come from Queensland? From Joh Bjelke-Petersen and Barnaby Joyce to Kevin Rudd and George Christensen, time and again the Sunshine State seems to push the most colourful and controversial characters on to the national political stage. Why is that? Is it something to do with an excess of sunshine? The most cogent explanation we’ve seen comes from political scientist Dr Paul Williams, who wrote in The Conversation last year that Queensland is more decentralised, more dependant on primary industries, a bit more Christian and a bit less multicultural than any other state, and all these factors help shape its “frontier politics”. “Queensland’s unique political culture is steeped in a populism that vilifies ‘elites’ and ‘outsiders’,” Dr Williams wrote. The state also has “a reverence for strong, opinionated leaders … a preference for political pragmatism … (and) a Queensland chauvinism that encourages locals to feel superior to other Australians.” We should note that as a lecturer at Griffith University, Dr Williams is a proud Queenslander himself.
Quantum shift in Queensland
SPEAKING of Queensland, there is one bit of electoral maths that hasn’t received much comment during the campaign as yet, and that’s the sheer number of people who have moved to the Sunshine State since the last election, many of whom have done so since the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the AEC’s March figures, there are 178,000 more people enrolled to vote in Queensland than there were in 2019 – a much higher figure than for any other state. (NSW has 131,000 more electors, Victoria has 104,000, SA has 50,000 and WA has 95,000.)
And the thing is: nobody really knows how those extra 178,000 people are going to vote. Could the new arrivals tip the balance in seats like Longman, Lilley, Blair, Moreton or Griffith, all of which are held on margins of less than 4 per cent? When you remember that Clive Palmer won the Queensland seat of Fairfax by just 53 votes in 2013, suddenly everything starts to look that bit more interesting.
Paul Murray Live Pub Test: The Mavericks screens on Tuesday April 19 at 8pm AEST on Sky News.
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