Liberal and Labor are 50-50 in Sturt, as Albo on track to become PM

Labor could wrest a second SA Liberal bastion from the government, according to new polls, suggesting the Coalition’s problems are bigger than Boothby.

Sturt MP James Stevens says he is in the fight of his life to hold on to his blue-ribbon seat, as new polling reveals his race against Labor will go down to the wire.

According to a YouGov poll, Mr Stevens is locked in a dead heat with Labor candidate Sonja Baram, sharing 50 per cent of two-party preferred support.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese is on track for a convincing election victory, with the nationwide poll predicting the Opposition will claim nine seats off the Coalition.

It has predicted the most likely outcome of the May 21 election is Labor winning 80 seats – more than the 76 required for victory – and the Coalition stuck on 63.

Previously held by former Defence Minister Christopher Pyne, the eastern suburbs electorate of Sturt has been in Liberal hands since 1972 – but the Liberal stronghold is at risk of falling.

The poll predicts Mr Stevens has 42 per cent of first-preference votes – slashed from 50.6 per cent in the 2019 election – while Ms Baram has 36 per cent.

The Greens’ supporter base is rising in Sturt, where the party now has 15 per cent of the first-preference vote – equal with Adelaide as the highest in the state.

The result is a 50-50 split between Labor and the Coalition for the all-important two-party preferred vote in Sturt.

Mr Stevens agreed the race was a “very tight contest” and said he would be “working day and night” for the rest of the campaign.

“It is certainly the fight of my life,” he said from a Marden prepoll station on Wednesday.

Sturt MP James Stevens (middle) says he is in the fight of his life to keep his job.

Sturt is one of just six electorates around the country that YouGov pollsters have labelled “too close to call”.

The Coalition-held seats of Corangamite in Victoria, Ryan and Longman in Queensland, and Lindsay and Bennelong in NSW are all 50-50 between the two major parties.

The poll predicts Labor to end the Liberals’ 73-year reign in Boothby and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg losing his Kooyong seat to independent Monique Ryan.

It also reveals Liberal Mayo candidate Allison Bluck is commanding 48 per cent of the two-candidate preferred count, but Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie, is still favourite to retain her seat with 52 per cent.

Rowan Ramsey, the Liberal MP for Grey, is holding off late independent challenger Liz Habermann, who has about 10 per cent of first-preference votes compared with his 41 per cent.

The numbers are based on a YouGov survey of 18,923 voters nationwide between April 14 and May 7. YouGov cross-referenced the survey data with information about the demographics of individual electorates to produce seat-by-seat predictions.

In its lower margin of error, Labor would win 76 seats across the country to the Coalition’s 58. In the upper margin of error, the Coalition would win just 68 seats – not enough for victory – and Labor would win 85.

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Hayley Mackereth William Allison at Burnside Shopping Centre in the Sturt electorate. Picture: Matt Loxton

‘We all want ScoMo out but it’s tricky’

By Monique Van Der Hayden

With only ten days to go until the federal election, residents in the SA battleground seat of Sturt remain undecided on who to vote, but for some the two major parties won’t be their first choice.

The Advertiser visited Burnside Village and spoke with locals to find out what issues would affect their vote their vote on May 21.

Athelstone residents, William Allison and friend Hayley Mackereth, both 25, say they are both leaning towards the Greens.

“I am really unsure about this years election, but I definitely will be considering other players than the two major parties,” Ms Mackereth said.

“The current leaders are just not the greatest representatives, I think. As much as you’re voting for the party, you’re also voting for the person.”

Jeff and Valerie Ballinger-Willoughby at Burnside Shopping Centre in the Sturt electorate. Picture: Matt Loxton

The pair said they both voted Labor in the last election, but a need for more environmental action has caused them to reconsider, Mr Allison said.

“Climate change is the biggest issue at the moment and we need a government that is going to do something about it,” he said.

“I think Labor and Liberal just sweep environmental problems under the rug,” Ms Mackereth agreed.

For St Peters artist, Jack Fran an independent will be his number one pick, but which one is still up in the air.

“It’s tricky, because we all want to get ScoMo out but we don’t exactly want to vote for Albo either,” said the 34-year-old.

“We have real issues at the moment with the rental crisis and the housing market. We need someone with real policies who’s going to do something about it.”

Originally published as Liberal and Labor are 50-50 in Sturt, as Albo on track to become PM