Leaked Labor polling exposes 15 seats that will decide the federal election and next PM
Secret internal polling has exposed 15 key seats that will decide who will win Saturday’s federal election - and it’s horror news for one leader.
Federal Election
Don't miss out on the headlines from Federal Election. Followed categories will be added to My News.
EXCLUSIVE
Bombshell ALP polling has outlined Anthony Albanese’s path to victory on 72-78 seats in the 150-seat Parliament and the hit list of seats that will decide the election.
News.com.au has obtained seat-by-seat internal Labor polling that suggests the shock seats up for grabs as the Prime Minister fights to offset expected ALP losses.
The ALP’s secret internal polling is generally regarded as a better and more credible guide than published polling, which includes smaller sample sizes.
It has identified 15 key seats that will decide the outcome and a number of Liberal-held seats that could flip.
State of play
Going into Saturday’s election, Labor holds a notional 78 seats in Australia’s 150-seat Parliament and the Coalition a notional 57 seats.
But a churn of losses and gains could see the Prime Minister emerge with only modest losses from the current majority of 78 seats.
The new research suggests that Peter Dutton could still force the Albanese Government into a minority, even if he’s no chance of forming a government in his own right.
As a blame game erupts in the Liberal Party over where the campaign went wrong, Coalition strategists have told news.com.au that predictions of a 72-78 range for the PM are “credible”.
But with the last 48 hours crucial to the final outcome, it’s hand to hand combat in line ball seats.
Shock Liberal seats on PM’s sights
In a shock result, the ALP is increasingly confident it will pick up the seat of Sturt in SA, a blue ribbon seat previously held by Christopher Pyne.
The polling exclusively obtained by news.com.au suggests that Labor is in front with 53.5 percent of the two party preferred vote which would see the incumbent James Stevens defeated.
Rising Liberal star Mr Stevens previously courted controversy after falling asleep during a crucial vote on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s flagship Religious Discrimination Bill as his Coalition colleagues banged on his office door and urgently called security.
ALP strategists believe they are also a shot at the Liberal-held seat of Bonner in Queensland that is currently held by veteran MP Ross Vasta.
The Labor polling suggests the seat is line ball however, with 51.5 per cent of voters favouring the ALP according to the internal polling, conducted in April.
In Tasmania, the Labor Party believe they are in the hunt for the seat of Bass, held by the Liberal moderate Bridget Archer where ALP polling suggests its 50:50.
They also believe they have a chance in Braddon, held by the Liberals’ Gavin Pearce.
Labor seats it expects to lose
The first ALP seat expected to tumble on election night is the Victorian seat of Aston, held by Labor’s Mary Doyle.
In NSW, the seat of Gilmore is being closely watched with former NSW Treasurer Andrew Constance making another attempt to enter federal politics.
In one of the dirtiest election campaigns in memory, Labor’s Jerome Laxale is fending off a serious challenge in the Sydney seat of Bennelong.
On a good night the Labor Party hopes to hold the line in NSW.
In a “miracle” result the NSW ALP hopes to pick up Fowler held by independent Dai Le, Banks in NSW held by David Coleman, Braddon Tasmania, Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens in Queensland, Leichhardt in far north Queensland, Bonner or Dickson in Queensland - the latter being Peter Dutton’s seat, Sturt in SA and Menzies in Victoria.
That outcome is regarded as highly unlikely however.
Labor and Liberal sources were dismissive of YouGov polling suggesting Labor could pick up 84 seats and dramatically increase the current majority.
Labor seats they are confident they can retain
The leaked ALP polling also suggests there are a number of Labor seats that the Coalition has in its sights that are likely to be retained.
Labor is cautiously confident it can retain Richmond, Robertson, Werriwa and Whitlam in NSW.
The Liberal Party has talked up the prospects of picking up the seat of Whitlam in NSW, which was named after Gough Whitlam.
The ALP polling suggests Labor is on 56 per cent of the two party preferred vote.
It is currently held by Stephen Jones who is retiring.
The Liberals had high hopes of the seat before the candidate Ben Britton imploded and was disendorsed amid claims he had been expressing views “inconsistent with the party’s position.
This included remarks first revealed by news.com.au about women in the military.
Another seat talked up by the Liberals is the seat of Gorton. The sitting Labor MP Brendan O’Connor is retiring.
Labor’s internal polling has the ALP on 55 per cent.
In the Victorian seat of Wills, where the sitting Labor MP Peter Khalil is under fire from the Greens, the ALP polling in April has him on 54.5 per cent.
Insiders say that has the Greens pulling up stumps and moving campaign resources to Queensland as it sandbags three House of Representatives seats: Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane.
Wildcards to watch on election night
The Liberals still believe there’s still a strong chance of the Albanese Government being forced to seek the support of the cross bench to govern.
That’s despite over-heated predictions from supporters earlier this year that Mr Dutton was on track to win the election after one term in opposition, for the first time since the 1930s.
Some Liberal insiders claim their internal polling in individual seats is better than the published polling including by the same pollster in The Australian Financial Review.
Wildcards to watch include the One Nation vote in the SA seat of Spence where Pauline Hanson could pick up a Senate seat and in Tasmania, where her daughter is running for office.
The Greens are also pulling resources out of the Victorian Labor seat of Wills according to Labor where they are sandbagging three seats in Queensland.
The seat of Brisbane is expected to fall to Labor, the Liberals are in the hunt for the Greens seat of Ryan in Queensland and Labor is under pressure from the Greens in Richmond, in NSW.
The Greens are also in the fight for seats in NSW and Victoria from the Liberals and the Labor Party as they fight off the major parties in three key Greens seats in Brisbane.
On a bad night, the Labor Party now believes they will only lose half a dozen seats in terms of net losses, which takes them down to 72 seats and minority government.
On a good night, they believe they could actually emerge with a slim majority and the Liberals’ gains offset by losses in some surprise states.
Mr Albanese needs 76 seats to win a majority in his own right, but could govern with a 75-seat majority if gave the job of Speaker to an independent.
If he falls short of 75 seats he can still form government by seeking a guarantee of confidence and supply from the crossbench.
Speaking this morning, Mr Albanese was quick to downplay wild predictions of a bigger majority.
“I have no expectations,” the Prime Minister said.
“After 2019, where people got a shock on the night, it’s really important to not get ahead of ourselves on the basis of polling.
“We’re working really hard. No prime minister has been re-elected since 2004 when John Howard got re-elected. I know we’ve got a mountain to climb.”
With 4.2 million Australians having already lodged their votes at pre-poll centres, the final countdown to Saturday’s election has begun.
There are 18,098,797 people enrolled for the election.
Originally published as Leaked Labor polling exposes 15 seats that will decide the federal election and next PM
Albo’s landslide one for the history books
Anthony Albanese has claimed a place in the history books in an extraordinary victory that relegated Peter Dutton to the political scrap heap.
Read more
‘A valued ally’: World leaders react to Albo’s election win
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Volodymyr Zelensky have led the world’s reaction to Anthony Albanese’s victory, revealing how they want to work with Australia to secure global stability.
Read more