NSW election result raises key question for Prime Minister Scott Morrison
The NSW election result will raise concerns for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and raises a key question as the federal election looms.
Analysis
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ANALYSIS
The NSW elections have sent confidence-jolting shudders through the Nationals federally and will have the Morrison Coalition government wobbling at the knees.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and One Nation went from fringe presences in non-metropolitan areas to conspicuous rivals to the Nationals, previously the sole political proprietors of those electorates.
The guns-are-fun crowd and a party linked to racist views did well, as if the 50 Christchurch mosque murders just over a week earlier had no impact on NSW voters.
The central question for Prime Minister Scott Morrison now is: Wentworth or the bush?
Do the Nationals and Liberals concentrate on the issues such as climate change important to voters in the east Sydney electorate formerly held by Malcolm Turnbull? Or cater for the competing priorities of non-metropolitan Australia?
For example, does it bow to the coal mining/burning ambitions of central Queensland or the pursuit of renewables strongly pushed in Brisbane electorates?
And the shake-up which might be needed to bring the Nationals back into favour, could be just as uncomfortable as the NSW lessons.
“People who want to give rifles back to farmers are getting votes,” former Nationals federal leader Barnaby Joyce repeatedly said on Seven’s election night coverage.
Mr Joyce would then deny he supported the lifting of firearm restrictions, arguing he was pointing out the movement of votes, not calling for a policy change.
But it was not clear.
Because Mr Joyce also raised complaints by non-metropolitan electorates they were being deprived use of river water which was being directed to environmental priorities, not their direct access.
And the former federal Water Minister was certainly calling for policy changes there.
Barnaby Joyce is campaigning as much for his return to the party leadership as much as for a reshaping of policy priorities, and not all his colleagues believe he has been helpful.
Liberal MP for North Sydney last night told ABC viewers Mr Joyce should “spend more time in Tamworth and less time on TV”.
The wannabe returned party leader made no mention of how much his private life might have turned off voters, particularly women.
There was little joy for Labor, of course, and a lesson in hoping negatives will give it federal victory.
The final campaign week blunders by state Labor leader Michael Daley cannot be held solely to blame for voter rejection.
NSW was the muscle of the ALP nationally and the failure Saturday was a further sign of political atrophy.
Just as the Morrison Coalition needs Queensland to hold firm, the ALP wants to maintain its NSW holdings at least in the election expected in May.
And it needs a demonstrable improvement in its standing in western Sydney, one which was not obvious on Saturday.
Prime Minister Morrison will rightly take heart from the result, aside from the Nationals’ embarrassments.
There is no equation connecting state election results to federal outcomes, but a winning party is easier to lead than one used to losing.
Originally published as NSW election result raises key question for Prime Minister Scott Morrison
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